When the Allen Americans took a 4-0 lead against the Utah Grizzlies on Sunday afternoon it looked like they would cruise to victory and win on Sunday after a poor performance on Saturday just like opening weekend. Instead the Americans gave up five unanswered goals to lose 5-4 in overtime.
- Are you an optimist or pessimist, is the glass half full or half empty? As I talked to fans during and after the game it was clear there are plenty of views on both sides of the ledger. The optimists were talking about earning two points this weekend, it is early, it takes time to jell and everything will be fine. The pessimists were talking about three home losses, lack of speed and poor team defense.
- Being a stats guy the best approach is to look at the Americans start from a stats perspective to see how this start compares with seasons past, here goes:
- Allen's record in first four home games the last five seasons:
2021-22: 1-1-2-0
2020-21: 4-0-0-0
2019-20: 2-2-0-0
2018-19: 0-4-0-0
2017-18: 1-1-2-1
It is clear the Americans home start has not been great but you can see from past seasons a slow start is not out of the ordinary. The optimists win on this point.
- Allen is dead last, ranked #27 in shots allowed per game at 41.75 and ranked #25 in goals allowed per game at 4.75. The Americans have given up two shorthanded goals in their first four games. Last season Allen was ranked #1 in the ECHL allowing three shorthanded goals in 72 games. When it comes to team defense the pessimists might have a point.
- Allen has always been good in overtimes and shootouts. Even in 2018-19 when the Americans had the worst record in the ECHL and missed the playoffs they were 7-6 in games that went extra time. After four games Allen is 0-2 in overtimes.
- There is an 80-20 rule that has held up very well over the years that says 80% of the teams in playoff positions at Thankgiving make the playoffs. Said in reverse it means if a team is not in a playoff position on Thanksgiving there is a 80% chance they won't make the playoffs. At this point Allen is tied with a bunch of teams (9) with a .500 point percentage. Just six of 27 teams have a point percentage below .500. In the Mountain Division, Allen is tied for fifth place with only Wichita having a worse points percentage than the Americans. Can Allen avoid being on the outside looking in for a playoff spot at Thanksgiving? It will be a tough task when you consider the Americans have nine games remaining before Thanksgiving and seven of them will be on the road.
- Steve Martinson has won close to 1100 games and 10 championships because of his ability to adapt and adjust to what is needed to improve the team. You can bet that will happen. If you watched this weekend it was obvious that Phil Beaulieu played but is not 100%. He had three shots on goal but they were not the type of shots you are used to seeing from him. Eric Roy is day to day and Nolan Kneen has looked good in practice and is close to returning to the lineup. Will Lochead is still a ways away. Add goalie Antoine Bibeau and the possibility of another forward from Charlotte and the defense and offense will be improved when the Americans add these players to the lineup. It is way too early to draw any conclusions on what this team will be this season.
- I wrote yesterday about the importance of the top line (Costello-Asuchak-Combs) both offensively and defensively in the success of the Americans. They had a good game on Sunday despite the overtime loss. Another four points (2G, 2A) and a combined +4 in a game where the rest of team was -7. The top line is now averaging 3.25 points per game, just a shade under their ECHL historical average of 3.56 points per game. In the last three games the top line is averaging 4.67 points per game.
- Goal scorers for Allen on Sunday were Jack Combs (3), Ryan Lohin (4), Jared Bethune (1) and Chad Costello (2). It was rookie Bethune's first pro goal. Jared played with Allen all the way back in 2017-18 and again last season but is still considered a rookie because he has not played 25 games in the ECHL.
- Ryan Lohin leads the Americans and is tied for #3 in the league with four goals. Jack Combs leads the Americans and is tied for #10 in the ECHL with six points.
- Allen will have some valuable practice time this week to work on system issues before they head on the road to play Wichita on Friday and Kansas City on Saturday.
DID YOU KNOW: The Allen attendance on Sunday was 1832 to make the total attendance for the four game homestand 11,437, an average of 2859 per game. It is still early with several ECHL teams not having a home game yet, plus eight have played just one home game which is normally higher attendance. Allen's opening night crowd was 5443 followed by 1799, 2363 and 1832. With that said only three ECHL teams have a lower average attendance than the Americans. Comparing Allen's average attendance to last season (1859) doesn't make sense because of the COVID restrictions. In the three seasons prior to 2020-21, Allen's average attendance was 4001, 4073 and 4082. The Americans attendance always starts slow and builds as the season progresses and football season ends. The question is can the Americans average 4000 fans per game this season?
We will see. Marty will make changes if needed. I wonder if the world series is impacting attendance?
ReplyDeleteIs the World Series going on?
DeleteNot sure if it was because of Halloween or poor play
ReplyDeleteWhat isn’t taken into the account is that half of our team is Junior Minors, playing against a lot of AHL guys. Also, our guys went out hard in the 1st period and ran out of steam because they’re not used to sustaining against more seasoned guys. That being said, and they went into overtime, I give the team kudos. It’s too early, and an average of 40 +/- guys will change throughout the season. I think they did a good job and will learn going forward. It’s not a sprint. It’s a marathon. Go Red!
ReplyDeleteI was at the game on Saturday and was watching the baseball game on my phone, as were many fans in my area. So I don't think that was a problem. Just poor marketing by Americans management and the fact that they raised the price of their tickets. It's cheaper to go to a Stars game than an Americans game.
ReplyDelete