Have All the ECHL Playoffs Teams Already Been Decided? - The Thanksgiving Hypothesis

 

I am heading to North Dakota in the morning for a week of pheasant hunting, so this will be the last blog post until the 11th. Wish me luck in the cold and snow. The first morning will be -3 with a high of 10, but after that the temperatures will moderate (20's and 30s), but it is always windy.  

- This is always a fun blog to write each season and track how accurate it is come playoff time. I have had some success with this hypothesis, but also some spectacular fails. None more memorable than two years ago when I wrote this about the Americans, "Allen is in last place in the division with a .393 point percentage and is the only team out of contention for a playoff spot." That commentary had me eating crow chili in April as Allen finished second in the Mountain Division and advanced to the second round of the Kelly Cup playoffs.  

 

- It is time for my "Thanksgiving Playoff Hypothesis" blog which predicts the 16 ECHL playoff teams based on the standings as of today. No need to worry any more, the fate of your favorite team is already decided. A little overstated but not by much. I have talked about this in the past after reading numerous articles about the history in the NHL, where data proves somewhere between 75% - 80% of playoff teams are already decided by now. Here is one of the more informative stories about this subject from the Hockey News several years ago: http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/out-of-the-playoffs-december-1-done-like-thanksgiving-dinner

  

- It is strange to think with just over 20% of the ECHL season complete, you can predict who will be in the playoffs with close to 80% accuracy. Nothing ventured, nothing gained so here are the playoff teams strictly by the numbers plus where I think the "Thanksgiving Playoff Hypothesis" might be wrong. The numbers in parentheses are the current point percentages. I use point percentage to determine the top four teams rather than points because of the difference in games played which varies from 14 to 21. Here are your 2024-25 Kelly Cup playoff teams.



NORTH DIVISION

• 1. Wheeling (.781)
• 2. Trois Riviéres (.714)
• 3. Norfolk (.694)
• 4. Adirondack (.531)

The top two in the North Division are pretty much a lock. Wheeling is #2 in the league in points percentage and Trois Riviéres is #4.Worcester, Reading and Maine all have point percentages below .500 and none have won more than three games in the last 10. History would say the top four now will be the top four at the end of the season.

 

SOUTH DIVISION

• 1. Florida (.806)
• 2. South Carolina (.750)
• 3. Jacksonville (.625)
• 4. Greenville (.594)

The South Division has five teams with a points percentage above .500 and in playoff territory. The top two are locked in for the playoffs. Florida is the top team in the league and South Carolina is ranked #3 in point percentage. While none of the teams below the playoff cut line are out of the picture for the playoffs, they may struggle to make the list. The three teams predicted to not make the playoffs, Savannah (.556), Orlando (.450) and Atlanta (.421) all have losing records over the last 10 games. Savannah got off to a great start winning six of its first seven games but is 3-6-0-0 in the last nine. The Ghost Pirates have more NHL/AHL contracted players than any team in the league, so their fate is dependent on what happens with the affiliate throughout the season. Orlando made the playoffs last season and could make a run, but it doesn't look good based on the Solar Bears home record of 3-6-1-0. Atlanta began last season winning eight straight games, which is #2 all-time to start a season. Since that eight game winning streak, covering the end of last season and the beginning of this season, the Gladiators record is 21-54-3-2. The bottom line is the top four in the South now should be the four advancing to the playoffs.

CENTRAL DIVISION

• 1.Toledo (.684)
• 2. Fort Wayne (.656)
• 3. Iowa (.618) 
• 4. Indy (.567)

 

There is quite a gap from the top four teams and the bottom three who are all below .500. Bloomington (.471), Kalamazoo (.382) and Cincinnati (.233) bring up the rear. Fort Wayne is back in the playoff picture after missing the playoffs last season. Cincinnati was the top team in the league two years ago at this point (.821), but can already make plans for the summer which will come in April for the Cyclones. Bloomington is the closest team to cracking the top four, but as a first year team, loaded with rookies, and limited help from its affiliate it will be difficult. Once again the top four look like the playoff teams come Kelly Cup time.  

MOUNTAIN DIVISION

• 1. Tulsa (.694)
• 2. Kansas City (.632)
• 3. Idaho (.583)
• 4. Tahoe (.563)

Things are not going according to Hoyle in the Mountain Division. Kansas City and Idaho dominated the division last season and it was expected to be the case in 2024-25 as well. While both teams are in the top four, they have not been dominate as expected. They have matching 5-4-1-0 records over the last 10 games. The surprises have been Tulsa, who is leading the the division and the new franchise, Tahoe, holding its own. The Mountain Division is the only ECHL division with eight teams, so four will miss the plays. Of all of the ECHL divisions the Mountain is the most likely to see one of the bottom four teams make the playoffs. Six teams in the division have point percentages above .500. Those below the playoff cut line are Allen (.531) and Wichita (.500). Rapid City (.389) and Utah (.353) bring up the rear. The team playing the best of those below the playoff line is Allen with a 6-2-2-0 record over the last 10 games. The unanswered question is whether the new franchise, Tahoe, can hold on to fourth place. Tahoe is not the typical new ECHL franchise. The Knight Monsters are the third oldest team in the league with 15 players having a total 800 games of AHL experience. They are not over reliant on rookies (7) and have a veteran presence (3) and a decent number of NHL/AHL contracted players (6). Once again it looks like the top four right now will be the playoff teams in April.       



- History says if you are more than five points out of the fourth playoff spot at this point the chance of making it into the playoffs is slim to none. That is bad news for Cincinnati who is already 10 points out of a playoff spot, Utah who is nine points out of a playoff spot and Rapid City who is seven points out of a playoff spot.


- Historically, teams more than five points ahead of the final playoff spot in the division at this point can start selling playoff tickets as they rarely miss the playoffs. Teams in this category include Florida, South Carolina, Wheeling, Norfolk and Toledo.


- The bottom line is most playoffs teams are already decided, but as important it is to make the playoffs, it is a myth that once you make the ECHL playoffs any team can win the Kelly Cup. In the last 20 years the Kelly Cup champion has finished outside of the top five during the regular season just four times and two of those were Florida the last two seasons. Here is where the Kelly Cup champion has finished in the regular season since 2005:

• 2024 - Florida (8th)
• 2023 - Florida (11th)
• 2022 - Florida (3rd)
• 2021 - Fort Wayne (5th)
• 2020 - No Playoffs
• 2019 - Newfoundland (3rd)
• 2018 - Colorado (4th)
• 2017 - Colorado (3rd)
• 2016 - Allen (5th)
• 2015 - Allen (2nd)
• 2014 - Alaska - (1st)
• 2013 - Reading (2nd)
• 2012 - Florida (7th)
• 2011 - Alaska (1st)
• 2010 - Cincinnati (5th)
• 2009 - South Carolina (4th)
• 2008 - Cincinnati (1st)
• 2007 - Idaho (6th)
• 2006 - Alaska (1st)
• 2005 - Trenton (5th)
   

     

- Keep in mind this is all done in fun and I will definitely revisit it at the end of the season to see how many of the 16 teams in playoff positions now, will in fact make the playoffs. If your favorite team is currently out the playoffs, remember even with 80% accuracy, three teams currently on the outside of a playoffs looking in will make the playoffs.




DID YOU KNOW: The list of ECHL teams that have won multiple championships is not very long when you consider the league has been around since 1988 and there have been something like 60 different  teams depending on how you count. Here are the nine teams that have won multiple ECHL championships with the winning coaches in parenthesis: 

• Florida Everblades - 2012, 2022, 2023, 2024  (Greg Poss, Brad Ralph, Brad Ralph, Brad Ralph)
• Alaska Aces - 2006, 2011, 2014  (Davis Payne, Rob Murray, Rob Murray)
  
• South Carolina Stingrays - 1997, 2001, 2009  (Rick Vaive, Rick Adduono, Jared Bednar)
  
• Hampton Roads Admirals - 1991, 1992, 1998  (John Brophy)
  
• Colorado Eagles - 2017, 2018  (Aaron Schneekloth)
  
• Allen Americans - 2015, 2016  (Steve Martinson)
  
• Cincinnati Cyclones - 2008, 2010  (Chuck Weber)
  
• Idaho Steelheads - 2004, 2007  (John Oliver, Derek Laxdal)
  
• Toledo Storm - 1993, 1994  (Chris McSorley)