A change of pace today as I look ahead at the 2022 Kelly Cup playoffs.
- It has been a couple of years since I have posted about playoff teams being decided by Thanksgiving. Because the season ended early in 2019-20 with no playoffs and the season started late (December) in 2020-21 it wasn't possible but now it is back. It is time for the "Thanksgiving Day Playoff Theory" blog which
predicts the 16 ECHL playoff teams based on the standings as of today.
Because the ECHL season started a week later than normal I included the games over the weekend in the calculations. No need to worry about the fate of your favorite team because it is already
decided. A little overstated but not by much.
-
I have talked about this subject in the past after reading numerous articles
about its history in the NHL. Over a five year period (2013-2018) in the NHL, 62 of 80 teams in the playoffs (77.5%) at Thanksgiving wound up qualifying for a playoff spot. The last two seasons I did this for the ECHL the results were 77% (12-16) in 2017-18 and 81% (13-16) in 2018-19.
-
It
is strange to think with just over 20% of the ECHL season
completed you can predict who will be in the playoffs with close to 80%
accuracy. Nothing ventured, nothing gained so here are the 2022 ECHL playoff teams
strictly by the numbers, plus where I think the "Thanksgiving Day Playoff
Theory" might be wrong. The number in parenthesis is the team's current winning percentage.
NORTH DIVISION
1. Newfoundland (.867)
2. Reading (.567)
3. Maine (.500)
4. Trois-Rivières (.500)
The North Division didn't compete last season and is the only ECHL division with six teams, only two teams miss the playoffs. The entire ECHL is chasing Newfoundland with little luck. The Growlers look like a lock for the regular season championship and are on record points percentage pace. The two teams outside the fourth playoff spot are Adirondack (.433) and Worcester (.393). Adirondack is a perennial strong team that has struggled all season but could be a team to make the top four. It will be hard to catch Trois-Rivières who had a slow start but has won four of the last five games and has a lot of contracted players as well as access to players living in the Montreal area. Worcester looks destined for another last place finish in the North Division.
SOUTH DIVISION
1. Florida (.656)
2. Orlando (.594)
3. Atlanta (.571)
4. Norfolk (.567)
The
South Division is the tightest division in the league with the points percentage ranging from the lowest first place (.656) to the highest last place (.433). Two teams in the final four for the Kelly Cup last season, Greenville and the Cup runner-up South Carolina are on the outside looking in for the playoffs. Norfolk is in a playoff position but never makes the playoffs. I could see two of the three teams currently not in a playoff position (.536 - South Carolina, .529 - Jacksonville, .462 - Greenville) cracking the top four.
CENTRAL DIVISION
1. Fort Wayne (.667)
2. Toledo (.667)
3. Kalamazoo (.615)
4. Cincinnati (.600)
Of all of the divisions the Central looks to be the one where the top four
will remain the top four all season. The only issue is who takes the top spot. Indy (.333) and Iowa (.353) are already eight points out of a playoff spot and will not recover. Wheeling (.571) is the only team with a chance to gain a top four spot. The Nailers are on a three game win streak so have gained some ground recently. Kalamazoo is the team that might be at risk. The Wings have historically finished just in or just out of the playoffs. The question is whether they will be able to hang on to a playoff spot.
MOUNTAIN DIVISION
1. Utah (.656)
2. Wichita (.633)
3. Idaho (.588)
4. Tulsa (.577)
The three teams on the outside looking in have winning percentages of
.469 (Rapid City), .433 (Allen), and .433 (Kansas City) and will have a tough
time making the playoffs. This is the division where the #4 team
(Tulsa) might be overtaken. Tulsa has cooled off after leading the division early
in the season. Tulsa has lost four straight and watched its point
percentage fall from .750 to .542 in the last week. Based on performance over the last two seasons, Allen is the most likely to defy the odds and make the playoffs. Allen finished #2 and #3 the last two seasons in ECHL points percentage. Rapid City finished #12 and #14. Kansas City finished #11 and #24.
- History says if you are more than five points out of the playoffs at
Thanksgiving the chances of making it into a playoff spot are almost
nonexistent. That is bad news for Worcester, Indy, and Iowa because if history is correct they can start
making plans for next
season now.
- Historically, teams more than five points clear of the final playoff spot at this point can start selling playoff
tickets as they rarely miss the playoffs. There are only two teams in this category, Newfoundland is 12 points clear of fourth place in the North Division and Utah is six points clear of fourth place in the Mountain Division.
- Remember this
is all done in fun and I will definitely revisit these predictions at the end of the
season. If your favorite team is currently out the playoffs,
remember even with 80% accuracy, three teams not in a playoff spot will make it by the end of the season.
DID YOU KNOW: - The bottom line is most playoffs teams are already decided but as important it is to make the playoffs it is a myth that once you make the ECHL playoffs any team can win the Kelly Cup. While 16 teams will make the playoffs, since the 2004-05 season the Kelly Cup champion has never finished worse than seventh in the regular season.
Here are the last 16 Kelly Cup champions with their regular season finish in parenthesis. Anyone who says once you get in the playoffs anything can happen hasn't looked at ECHL history.
2021 - Fort Wayne (5th)
2019 - Newfoundland (3rd)
2018 - Colorado (4th)
2017 - Colorado (3rd)
2016 - Allen (6th)
2015 - Allen (2nd)
2014 - Alaska (1st)
2013 - Reading (2nd)
2012 - Florida (7th)
2011 - Alaska (1st)
2010 - Cincinnati (5th)
2009 - South Carolina (4th)
2008 - Cincinnati (1st)
2007 - Idaho (6th)
2006 - Alaska (1st)
2005 - Trenton (4th)
This team has no chance of making the play-offs unless they learn to play as a team. These guys are all on a separate page - like monkeys trying to hump a football, It's comical - is there no communication out there? It's painful watching them play. Too much talent - too little basics. These guys can't clear their own own end - let's start with that!
ReplyDeleteI think they are playing better. Not sure if they make the playoffs but I like the new players. Once everyone is back they could make a run while another team has losing streak. But playing better than they started is important and I think they are starting to do that.
ReplyDeleteThis year has also let me see how fortunate we Allen fans have been with successful teams and how rough it is for those teams that year after year don't make the playoffs.
Go Red
Every team in the league is dealing with missing players. What's hurting us the most is our bad affiliation with Seattle that we are stuck with. AA president and owner cost us our affiliation with San Jose and that is why this team is going to struggle all season. Time for Jack and his puppet to go. We need hockey people running our organization, not some college flunky who is all style and no substance.
ReplyDeleteYes - there has been signs of improvement. Gould was a major pick up and will be a star on this team. Marty's teams always start slow and need time to gel - but we're at Thanksgiving and they still look lost on the ice. The power play is so much of a joke with one guy pressing them they can't do squat. They can't clear their own end and their passing/communication on the ice is pathetic. It's not from a lack of effort but more from a lack of teammanship
ReplyDelete