Have All the ECHL Playoffs Teams Already Been Decided? - The Thanksgiving Hypothesis

 

Two things always happen this week each year. First I am heading to North Dakota on Friday for a week of pheasant hunting. Wish me luck in the cold, snow and wind. The first morning will be -9 with a high of 1, but after that the temperatures will moderate (20's and 30s), but it is always windy. Second, it is time for my annual blog about playoff teams being decided by Thanksgiving.  

- This is always a fun blog to write each season and track how accurate it is come playoff time. I have had some success with this hypothesis, but also some spectacular fails. None more memorable than three years ago when I wrote this about the Americans, "Allen is in last place in the division with a .393 point percentage and is the only team out of contention for a playoff spot." That commentary had me eating crow chili in April as Allen finished second in the Mountain Division and advanced to the second round of the Kelly Cup playoffs.

 

- Here we go with my "Thanksgiving Playoff Hypothesis" blog, which predicts the 16 ECHL playoff teams based on the standings as of today. No need to worry anymore, the fate of your favorite team is already decided. A little overstated but not by much. I have talked about this in the past after reading numerous articles about the history in the NHL, where data proves that somewhere between 75% - 80% of playoff teams are already decided by now. Here is one of the more informative stories about this subject from the Hockey News  many years ago: http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/out-of-the-playoffs-december-1-done-like-thanksgiving-dinner

  

- It is strange to think that with just over 20% of the ECHL season complete, you can predict who will be in the playoffs with close to 80% accuracy. Nothing ventured, nothing gained, so here are the playoff teams strictly by the numbers, plus where I think the "Thanksgiving Playoff Hypothesis" might be wrong. The numbers in parentheses are the current point percentages. I use point percentage to determine the top four teams rather than points because of the difference in games played, which varies from 16 to 20. Here are your 2025-26 Kelly Cup playoff teams.



NORTH DIVISION

• 1. Wheeling (..806)
• 2. Maine (.676) 
• 3. Trois Riviéres (.647)
• 4. Reading (.556)

The top three teams in the North Division are pretty much a lock. Wheeling is #1, Maine is #5, and Trois-Rivières is #8 in the ECHL in points percentage. Adirondack (.531) and Worcester (.500) are close behind Reading for the final playoff spot. Worcester lost eight of its first nine games, but has won eight of the last nine. Reading is just the opposite: the Royals won five straight to start the season, but since then have lost eight of 12 games. My prediction is Worcester gets the final playoff spot. Adirondack and Greensboro are long shots, and Norfolk (.353) is the only team already out of the playoff picture.

 

SOUTH DIVISION

• 1. Atlanta (.750)
• 2. Florida (.684)
• 3. South Carolina (.611)
• 4. Jacksonville (.529)
• 4. Greenville (529)

The South Division has six of seven teams with a points percentage of .500 or more and in playoff territory. The top two teams seem locked in for the playoffs. Atlanta is ranked #3 in the league, and Florida is ranked #4. While none of the teams below the playoff cut line are out of the picture, except Orlando (.250), the final playoff spot will likely be Jacksonville or Greenville. They are two evenly matched teams with a history of making the playoffs and with strong affiliations. They have split the two games played against each other. They play six more times this season, and the head-to-head results may decide which team makes the playoffs and which team goes home. Savannah is the other .500 team, but the Ghost Pirates have never made the playoffs since joining the ECHL in 2022-23 and will likely have the same fate this season.  

CENTRAL DIVISION

• 1. Fort Wayne (.750)
• 2. Bloomington (.625) 
• 3. Toledo (.618) 
• 4. Cincinnati (.583)

 

The only other team above .500 is Indy (.528), followed by Iowa (.421) and Kalamazoo (.375). Of all of the divisions, the Central is the most likely to have the current top four teams stay that way all season. The gap between Cincinnati and Indy has grown recently. Indy has lost five of its last seven games, while Cincinnati has won six of its last nine games. Kalamazoo is already nine points behind the final playoff spot and out of contention, even though they have two games in hand over fourth-place Cincinnati.   

MOUNTAIN DIVISION

• 1. Tahoe (.675)
• 2. Kansas City (.647)
• 3. Idaho (.600)
• 4. Utah (.500)

 

The Mountain Division is easily the most difficult to predict and most likely to have teams not in the top four make the playoffs. Notice the #1 team (Tahoe) has the lowest point percentage of any division's #1 team, and the #4 team also has the lowest point percentage of any #4 team in the other divisions. While Tahoe and Kansas City seem to be the class of the division, anything could happen. The four teams not currently in a playoff spot are Wichita (.472), Allen (.469), Rapid City (.444), and Tulsa (.438). If affiliate help determines the outcome, here are the NHL/AHL contracted players assigned to each team as of last week's report: Rapid City (10), Wichita (7), Tulsa (6), and Allen (0). I know these numbers have changed since a week ago, but this gives you a relative comparison. The bottom line is that none of the Mountain Division teams are out of the playoff hunt, and I would expect one or two teams currently outside of a playoff spot to make it in. 

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- History says if you are more than five points out of the fourth playoff spot at this point, the chance of making it into the playoffs is slim to none. That is bad news for Norfolk, Orlando, and Kalamazoo.


- Historically, teams more than five points ahead of the final playoff spot in the division at this point can start selling playoff tickets, as they rarely miss the playoffs. Teams in this category include Wheeling, Florida, Atlanta, Fort Wayne, and Tahoe.


- The bottom line is that most playoff teams are already decided, but as important as it is to make the playoffs, it is a myth that once you make the ECHL playoffs, any team can win the Kelly Cup. In the last 20 years, the Kelly Cup champion has finished outside of the top five during the regular season just four times, and only once, Florida in 2023, has a team finished lower than #8. Here is where the Kelly Cup champion has finished in the regular season since 2005:

• 2025 - Trois Riviéres (5th)  
• 2024 - Florida (8th)
• 2023 - Florida (11th)
• 2022 - Florida (3rd)
• 2021 - Fort Wayne (5th)
• 2020 - No Playoffs
• 2019 - Newfoundland (3rd)
• 2018 - Colorado (4th)
• 2017 - Colorado (3rd)
• 2016 - Allen (5th)
• 2015 - Allen (2nd)
• 2014 - Alaska - (1st)
• 2013 - Reading (2nd)
• 2012 - Florida (7th)
• 2011 - Alaska (1st)
• 2010 - Cincinnati (5th)
• 2009 - South Carolina (4th)
• 2008 - Cincinnati (1st)
• 2007 - Idaho (6th)
• 2006 - Alaska (1st)
• 2005 - Trenton (5th)
   

     

- Keep in mind this is all done in fun, and I will definitely revisit it at the end of the season to see how many of the 16 teams currently in playoff positions will, in fact, make the playoffs. If your favorite team is out of the playoffs, remember, even with 80% accuracy, three teams currently on the outside of the playoffs looking in will make the playoffs.




DID YOU KNOW: The list of ECHL teams that have won multiple championships is not very long when you consider the league has been around since 1988, and there have been something like 60 different teams, depending on how you count. Here are the nine teams that have won multiple ECHL championships, with the winning coaches in parentheses: 

• Florida Everblades - 2012, 2022, 2023, 2024  (Greg Poss, Brad Ralph, Brad Ralph, Brad Ralph)
• Alaska Aces - 2006, 2011, 2014  (Davis Payne, Rob Murray, Rob Murray)
  
• South Carolina Stingrays - 1997, 2001, 2009  (Rick Vaive, Rick Adduono, Jared Bednar)
  
• Hampton Roads Admirals - 1991, 1992, 1998  (John Brophy)
  
• Colorado Eagles - 2017, 2018  (Aaron Schneekloth)
  
• Allen Americans - 2015, 2016  (Steve Martinson)
  
• Cincinnati Cyclones - 2008, 2010  (Chuck Weber)
  
• Idaho Steelheads - 2004, 2007  (John Oliver, Derek Laxdal)
  
• Toledo Storm - 1993, 1994  (Chris McSorley)