Friday the 13th usually comes with talk of bad luck and superstition, but for the Allen Americans and Idaho Steelheads, the real concern is the standings as two teams fighting for position collide in a late-season matchup. The calendar may say Friday the 13th, but the real tension tonight comes from two teams that can't afford to drop points this late in the season. Allen's hope of catching Idaho for second place in the Mountain Division depends on the outcome tonight and tomorrow. Idaho is trying to get back on a winning track after losing seven of its last 10 games, and watching its 16-point lead over Allen melt to seven points. An Allen sweep in this two-game series, and the lead will shrink to three points, with the Americans having a game in hand.
It is no secret that Allen has struggled against Idaho. The Americans haven't won a game against the Steelheads in the last two seasons. Allen was 0-6-0-0 last year. This season, the best the Americans have done is two overtime losses on a record of 0-3-2-0. The two games this weekend will be the final chance to beat Idaho in the regular season. Four points this weekend, and Allen has a real shot at second place. If the Americans split or lose both games, the rest of the season will be more about maintaining third place in the standings.
- Here are some comparison stats between Allen and Idaho:
- Allen's record is 31-20-5-0, Idaho is 35-18-4-0.
- Allen is 7-2-1-0 over the last 10 games, Idaho is 3-7-0-0.
- Allen is 17-8-2-0 at home, Idaho is 17-10-3-0 on the road.
- Allen's goal differential is +26 (195-169), Idaho's is +21 (202-181).
- Allen's team plus/minus is +46, Idaho's is +102.
- Allen's team save percentage is .913, Idaho's is .902.
- Here is the more traditional statistical comparison between the two teams. The league rank is in parentheses:
- Goals scored average: Allen 3.48 (#5) - Idaho 3.54 (#3)
- Goals allowed average: Allen 3.02 (#15) - Idaho 3.18 (#20)
- Shots for average: Allen 33.63 (#2) - Idaho 34.16 (#1)
- Shots against average: Allen 34.84 (#28) - Idaho 32.33 (#24)
- Power play percentage: Allen 20.4% (#8) - Idaho 17.6% (#17)
- Penalty kill percentage: Allen 84.6% (#7) - Idaho 78.7% (#22)
If you look at the stats above, a few things stand out;
- Statistically, both teams have great offenses, but middle-of-the-pack defenses.
- Allen has a distinct advantage on special teams.
- Allen has played better hockey recently.
- Special teams are key to any series, but even more important in this series. A combined power play and penalty kill percentage of 105% is considered excellent. Few teams reach that benchmark. Allen's combined percentage is 105.0%, and Idaho's is 96.3%. If you compare road vs home percentages, the numbers are a little different:
- Allen's home power play percentage is ranked #21 (16.3%), Idaho's road percentage is ranked #22 (16.3%).
- Allen's home penalty kill percentage is ranked #1 (89.5%). Idaho's road percentage is ranked #25 (76.0%).
There should be plenty of power play opportunities based on the fact that Idaho is #2 in the league in penalty minutes (940) and Allen is #7 (765). If you compare minor penalties, Idaho is #1 (290), and Allen is #5 (245). If Allen expects to win this series, the Americans must win the special teams battle.
- A good start and not playing from behind will also be a big key against Idaho. Here are the stats:
- Allen has scored first in 25 of 56 games (45%), with a points percentage of .860.
- Idaho has scored first in 29 of 57 games (51%), with a points percentage of .828.
- Allen's goal differential by periods is: -8 (1st), +28 (2nd), and +6 (3rd).
- Idaho's goal differential by period is: +4 (1st), +2 (2nd), and +8 (3rd)
- Allen is 12-1-2-0 when leading after the 1st period, 21-0-2-0 leading after the 2nd period.
- Idaho is 21-1-2-0 when leading after the 1st period, 20-1-1-0 leading after the 2nd period.
It is pretty clear that the team that scores first and maintains the lead has a huge advantage and will win both games in this series.
- Since Allen has been in overtime in four of its last nine games and Idaho has been in the third most overtime in the league (15), you just might see an overtime this weekend. Here are the records:
- Allen is 3-5 in overtime and 2-0 in shootouts for a win percentage of .500.
- Idaho is 7-4 in overtime and 4-0 in shootouts for a win percentage of .733.
- Shorthanded goals could also come into play. Idaho is last, #30, in the ECHL in shorties allowed, and #9 in shorties scored. Allen is #27 in shorties scored, and #13 in shorthanded goals allowed.
- Idaho has scored six shorthanded goals and allowed 11 for a net of -5.
- Allen has scored two shorthanded goals and allowed six for a net of -4.
- Both teams will be missing key players this weekend. Here is a list of players you won't see this weekend for Allen:
- Hank Crone will miss the series with Idaho, but hopes to be back for South Carolina.
- Sam Sedley has been loaned to Belleville (AHL) and will miss the series against Idaho, but could be back for South Carolina.
- Spencer Asuchak is still out. His recovery is going well, but he will miss this weekend and the trip to South Carolina.
- Troy Murray's injury has not responded, so he has shut it down for the season and headed home.
- Sam Stange, who was expected to return to Allen, has been sent to Florida, the AHL affiliate of Springfield. He is not expected back in Allen this season.
- Brendan Hoffman hasn't played for Idaho since February 10, when he was loaned to the San Jose Barracuda. Despite missing the last 11 games, Hoffmann leads Idaho in points (by 14) and goals (by 11). Despite being gone for over a month, his 32 goals in 44 games (.73 per game) still lead the ECHL.
- Charlie Dodero, Idaho's top-scoring defenseman, was just placed on 14-day injured reserve and will miss the games this weekend. Dodero leads all Steelheads defensemen in points (27), goals (5), and assists (22).
- Every healthy skater on the Allen roster will be in the lineup this weekend. Coach Martinson expects additions to the roster next week, but not for this weekend.
Goalies
- #31 - Jackson Parsons
- #33 - Marco Costantini
Defensemen
- #86 - Andre Anania
- #22 - Anthony Costantini
- #21 - Jackson Decker
- #25 - Trevor LeDonne
- #8 - Ty Prefontaine
- #6 - Braidan Simmons-Fischer
- #2 - Quinn Warmuth
Forwards
- #11 - Jake Chiasson
- #18 - Harrison Blaisdell
- #91 - Michael Gildon
- #14 - Kevin Gursoy
- #7 - Colton Hargrove
- #9 - Danny Katic
- #19 - Chase Maxwell
- #92 - Colby McAuley
- #77 - Lukas Sillinger
- #3 - Avery Smith
- #29 - Brayden Watts
OTHER COMMENTS
- I think it is time to declare that the four Mountain Division teams to make the playoffs will be the four teams currently in the top four spots, Kansas City, Idaho, Allen, and Tahoe, but not necessarily in that order. The fifth-place team is Wichita, which is seven points behind fourth place with 16 games to go. Here is what Wichita is facing:
- Wichita has lost 8 of its last 10 games.
- Wichita's last 16 games are split evenly between home and road games.
- Wichita plays Kansas City six more times.
- Along with Kansas City, Allen has the best record in the Mountain Division over the last 10 games. This may be the only time all season another team has matched Kansas City's record over a ten-game span. Here are the points earned over the last 10 games:
- 15 points - Allen
- 15 points - Kansas City
- 11 points - Utah
- 11 points - Tahoe
- 10 points - Tulsa
- 7 points - Wichita
- 6 points - Rapid City
- 6 points - Idaho
- 11-0-0-0: Maine
- 9-1-0-0: Florida
- 9-1-0-0: South Carolina (Allen visits South Carolina next week, 20th, 21st, 22nd).
- 8-1-1-0: Fort Wayne - best record in Western Conference.
It’s gonna be a rough weekend, me thinks.
ReplyDeleteSeems Springfield either folded to Florida's pressure, or our relationship with them isn't what we may perceive. Disappointing.
ReplyDeleteCan someone explain how that whole Stange thing works in regards to us losing him and his rights?
ReplyDelete