Allen vs Rapid City Preview, Playoff Challenge Stats, Franchises in Trouble Rumors, NHL Contracted Players in ECHL and More

 

It is game day for the Allen Americans as they begin a three game series in Rapid City. Allen has 10 regular season games remaining against four different teams. After the three games in Rapid City the Americans play one game in Wichita. They then play three games against Adirondack and two against Tulsa at home before traveling to Tulsa for the last game of the season. 

- The Americans current points percentage is .460 after 62 games. Allen will have to play much better than that over the last 10 games. Six of the 10 remaining games are against teams with a better point percentage than Allen. Here are the opponents points percentages compared to Allen's:

• .421 - Rapid City (3 games)
• .429 - Wichita (1 game)
• .460 - ALLEN
  
• .492 - Tulsa (3 games)
  
• .667 - Adirondack (3 games)

- This season the schedule called for just six games between Allen and Rapid City, the fewest in memory. In 2020-21 these teams played 16 times and the Americans took three trips to Rapid City. This season the first three games these teams played was in December in Allen. The Rush won the first game 10-5 and the Americans won game two (7-2) and game three (3-2). 

- It seems like all season Allen catches teams on the upswing. That is the case with Rapid City. The Rush went from January 13 to March 22 without winning a home game. They have now won two straight beating Utah twice over the weekend. Between early February and early March, Rapid City's overall record was 1-11-0-0. Since March 8 the Rush's record is 5-2-1-0 including wins at Utah and at Kansas City.

 

- Allen has had the opposite results. From early February to early March, Allen's record was 7-2-0-0. Since March 8 the Americans record is 2-7-0-0. 

 

- This series in Rapid City will pit one team (Allen) desperate for points in an effort to make the playoffs against a team (Rapid City) that has to pass three teams and gain eight points to make the playoffs. Rapid City has a mathematical chance but is basically playing out the season. That could make them even more dangerous in this series.

 

-  Roster update: 

• Filip Forsmark was released from his amateur tryout contract (ATO). Because of his immigration status he was limited to five games or 10 days with Allen. He is headed back home to Sweden, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the rookie back in Allen in the fall.
• Andrew Jarvis is on reserve, but is in Rapid City with the team. 
• Johnny Walker is on injured reserve but will be eligible and should be ready to return to the lineup after the Rapid City trip.
• Hank Crone is getting closer to returning to the lineup. Hopefully he will be ready for the Adirondack series (April 3) but definitely by the Tulsa series to end the regular season. 
   

 

- Here is a comparison of Allen and Rapid City:

• Allen's road record is 14-14-2-1, Rapid City's home record is 15-16-2-0.
• Allen is 3-7-0-0 in the last 10 games, Rapid City is 5-4-1-0.
• Allen's league rank is #24 (57 points), Rapid City is #27 (53 points).
• Allen has scored 205 goals and allowed 246 for a -41 goal differential
• Rapid City has scored 198 goals and allowed 247 for a -49 goal differential.
• Allen has a better power play percentage - 20.9% vs 16.3%.
• Allen has a better penalty kill percentage - 78.0%  vs 77.1%.
   

 

- Allen has been outshot by opponents in 84% (52 of 62) of its games this season. It will be something to track in this series. Allen is ranked #27 in average shots allowed per game (39.76), but Rapid City is not much better ranked #25 (34.62). To be successful Allen will have to keep the shots close in this series.

 

 

- Playing with the lead is always a key to winning. Allen's points percentage when scoring first is .724, compared to Rapid City at.591. If either team is leading after the period it is a big advantage. Allen's record when leading after the first period on the road is 9-0-1-1 and after the second period is 12-0-1-1. At home Rapid City is 8-3-0-0 when leading after the first period and 7-2-1-0 when leading after the second period. 

 

 

 

- December was a long time ago and both teams have made numerous roster changes since they played their first three game series in Allen. It is worth noting both teams had great power plays in that series. Allen had two power play goals in all three games and a total of 6-13 which is a 46.2% power play percentage. Rapid City was 4-15 (26.7%).  

 

 

- Allen and Rapid City have historically been high penalty minute teams but not so much this season. Allen has taken 1111 penalty minutes and Rapid City just 738. The totals are misleading when you consider Allen has many more 10 minute misconduct penalties (27 vs 6) and game misconducts (11 vs 2) which do not result in power play opportunities. Allen has taken more minor penalties (313-264) but Rapid City has more five minute major penalties (26-21) which are mostly fighting majors.   

 

 

 

- With every team in the Mountain Division have a losing record (below .500) except Kansas City (.778) and Idaho (,688) it is hard to say any series is a must win. The points percentage spread from second to seventh place is just .071 (.492 to .421). With that said, if Allen wants to make the playoffs it needs a minimum of four points against Rapid City. Allen already needs help from the teams ahead of them in the standings. Here are some numbers that help explain the challenge:

 

• Possible Points (if team wins all remaining games)
  
• 79 - Tulsa
• 77 - Utah
• 77 - Allen
• 72 - Wichita
• 71 - Rapid City
   
• Points/Average (points if team plays at current points percentage going forward)
  
• 71 - Tulsa
• 69 - Utah
• 66 - Allen
• 62 - Wichita
• 61 - Rapid City

To make the playoffs Allen needs to play above its season long points percentage (.460) or hope Tulsa or Utah plays below its season long points percentage. 

 

 

- The game tonight (8:05 pm CDT) will be one of the 25% of games that has two referees. The referees scheduled tonight are #38 Trevor Wohlford and #34 Michael Zyla.   

 

 

 

OTHER COMMENTS

 

- The only other Mountain Division game tonight is Idaho at Utah. There are a total of six games on the schedule. Norfolk has a chance to clinch a playoff spot and join the other four teams that have already qualified. Toledo can become the first team to clinch a division title. Here is the ECHL Today with the previews and details: https://echl.com/news/2024/03/echl-today-march-27 

 

- If you follow social media you might have seen some rumors about the future of the ECHL franchises in Newfoundland and Trois Riviéres. Some of these rumors even suggest one or both of these team may not make it to the end of this season without financial help. I have also heard the draft schedules for next season include ones with or without these teams. In talking to some of my fellow bloggers in Canada it is premature to say what will happen. The league could step in to make sure the 2023-24 season isn't impacted, a new owner could be found for next season or some other accommodation could be made for the current owners.

 

 

- With Filip Forsmark released, coach Costello could sign another college/junior player to an ATO in the next week or 10 days. It is a way to add depth to the roster and also take a look at a player for next season. 

 

 

 

DID YOU KNOW: The ECHL Stats post today is about NHL contracted players in the ECHL. Allen has two, Blake Murray is under contract with the Carolina Hurricanes and Bennett MacArthur is under contract with the Tampa Bay Lighting.

There are 40 NHL contracted players currently playing in the ECHL. 43% of them (17 of 40) are goalies. Here is the number of NHL contracted employees with each ECHL team:

 

3: FLA, IA, NOR, ORL, WHL

2: *ADK, ALN, MNE, NFL, SC, *TOL, TUL, UTA

1: ATL, CIN, FW, *GVL, IDH, JAX, REA, WIC, WOR

0: IND, KAL, *KC, RC, SAV, TR

 

*Division Leaders