It is game day for the Allen Americans as they are in Kansas City to take on the Mavericks tonight, Friday and Saturday. Before delving into the series preview, here is a stats comparison between this season and last season for the Allen Americans. I found a couple of surprises, the most surprising is the Americans scoring at a higher pace this season than last season. Here is a stats comparison on this date (December 13) between this season and last season:
- Record
- 7-13-1-0 (.357) - 2023-24
- 6-13-1-0 (.325) - 2022-23
- Goals For with Average
- 66 (3.14) - 2023-24
- 55 (2.75) - 2022-23
- Goals Against with Average
- 97 (4.62) - 2023-24
- 77 (3.85) - 2022-23
- Goal Differential
- -31 in 2023-24
- -22 in 2022-23
What struck me when looking at the stats above is with just over 25% of the season completed in both seasons the 2023-24 team is scoring at a higher pace than last season when Allen had a record setting four players with over 33 goals. On the flip side the team defense is much worse this season than in 2022-23. For the Americans to have a turnaround similar to last season the team will have to find replacements for the loss of their top two scorers, Colton Hargrove and Matt Marcinew. At the same time, the team defense will have to improve a lot, led by the addition of several recently added defensemen (Orzeck. Allen, Gatenby) and the return of Ryan Gagnon, Ty Farmer, Dalton Skelly and Dalton Gally from injured reserve.
- The three game series in Kansas City will be a big test for Allen. Kansas City is the #3 team in the ECHL by points (33) and #4 by points percentage (.717). If you are looking for bright spots here are a couple. The Mavericks have been a much better road team (10-2-0-0) than home team (6-4-1-0) thus far this season. Over the last 10 games the records are similar, Kansas City is 5-4-1-0 and Allen is 4-5-1-0.
- The game tonight will be the fifth of 15 times Allen and Kansas City will play this season. In the first four games Allen was 1-3 and the odd stat is the road team won all four games. The Americans beat the Mavericks on a Tuesday morning (Kids Day Game) by a score of 4-3 but it took a 49 save effort by goalie Mark Sinclair. Kansas City outshot Allen 52-17 in the game.
- Here are the cumulative stats in the four games between Allen and Kansas City this season:
- Kansas City leads in goals 15-10.
- Kansas City leads in shots 177-99.
- Allen had a power play goal in all four games for a total of 5-13 (38.5%).
- Kansas City had five power play goals, 5-22 (22.8%).
- Allen leads in PIMS 86-37.
- If you look at season long stats Kansas City has scored more goals per game than Allen (3.70 vs 3.14) and allowed fewer goals per game. The Mavericks are #4 in the ECHL allowing 2.78 goals per game. Allen is #28 allowing an average of 4.62 goals per game. The same is true in shots. Kansas City is #5 averaging 33.70 shots per game compared to Allen who is ranked #23 averaging 29.43 shots per game. The big discrepancy is in shots allowed per game, Kansas City is #3 (26.83) while Allen is #28 (43.10).
- Special teams are always key to any series and this series will be no different. Allen has a clear advantage on special teams. Kansas City is last in the ECHL on the penalty kill (72.2%) and Allen is #14 at 78.5%. Allen also has a slight advantage on the power play. The Americans are ranked #7 (25.0%) and Kansas City is ranked #8 (22.5%)
- How does Kansas City survive having the worst penalty kill percentage in the league. They do so by staying out of the penalty box. The Mavericks are the least penalized team in the ECHL averaging 7.39 minutes per game. Allen is ranked #4 averaging 16.67 penalty minutes per game. Even more telling is the number of minor penalties. Allen has taken 110 compared to Kansas City's league low of 65. Staying out of the penalty box will be key in this series for the Americans.
- Allen has done a good job of reducing shots allowed recently. In the last four games the Americans have given up fewer then 40 shots in all of them and the average has been 34 shots per game, well under the season average of 43 shots per game. However, the fewer shots has not translated to fewer goals which have averaged 4.75 over the last four games.
- For the Americans to be successful in the Kansas City series they have to allow fewer shots but that has to translate into fewer goals. 50% of the goals Allen has scored against the Mavericks this season have been scored on the power play. Allen needs to play better even strength.
- Scoring first and getting good starts will also be keys to this series. Kansas City is 11-2-1-0 (.821) when scoring first and Allen is 2-9-0-0 (.182) when it gives up the first goal. T ells you all you need to know about the first goal of the game. A first period lead is also very telling, Allen is 5-0-1-0 when leading after the first period, Kansas City 8-1-1-0.
- The roster changes for the Kansas City series include the following:
- Goalie Leevi Meriläinen is back in Allen.
- Defenseman Donovan Sebrango has been recalled to Belleville.
- Forward Blake Murray has been assigned to Allen by the Carolina Hurricanes.
- Defenseman Justin Allen has been placed on injured reserve (effective 12/10).
- In the four head to head games against Kansas City the scoring leaders for Allen were Matt Marcinew (2G, 5A). Colton Hargrove (2G, 4A) and Kris Myllari (1G, 5A). The players to watch from the Mavericks are #49 Cole Coskey (4G, 2A) and #44 Max Andreev (1G, 5A).
- There is no doubt injuries have played a major role for Allen thus far this season. The Americans have more players on IR than any other team in the league. Here are the number of players currently on IR for the Mountain Division teams:
- 9 - Allen
- 4 - Tulsa
- 4 - Utah
- 3 - Kansas City
- 2 - Wichita
- 1 - Rapid City
- 0 - Idaho
- The referee scheduled for the game tonight is #12 Austin O'Rourke. O'Rourke played junior hockey in Texas in the NAHL (Lone Star Brahmas & Amarillo Bulls) and played college hockey at UMass- Lowell. His dad is long time NHL referee Dan O'Rourke who has worked close to 1400 regular season NHL games and 200 playoff games including numerous trips to the Stanley Cup finals.
OTHER COMMENTS
- Goal differential (goals for minus goals allowed) is a good proxy for how good a team has performed. The ECHL season is now 25% completed and here is the goal differential for each Mountain Division team:
- +37 Idaho
- +21 Kansas City
- +8 Tulsa
- -12 Rapid City
- -13 Utah
- -17 Wichita
- -31 Allen
- With all of the Allen struggles the team is still in the thick of the playoff race because four of the seven Mountain Division teams have point percentages below .500. After this week the Americans will play 11 of its next 14 games over the next month at home with a great opportunity to move up in the standings.
- Allen has played the Mountain Division teams with point percentages below .500 eight times and those above .600 11 times. Kansas City has played teams below .500 14 times and those above .600 six times.
- There are six games on the ECHL schedule tonight. Here is the ECHL Today with the previews: https://echl.com/news/2023/12/echl-today-dec-13
- Here is the Allen Americans Weekly with a recap of last week and a look ahead to this week: https://allenamericans.com/news/2023/12/americans-weekly
KC 5-2 - SOG 44
ReplyDeletehomers - feels free to provide your predictions - if you have any
DeleteGatenby is NOT an improvement in any world...
ReplyDelete