Friday, February 1, 2019

The Stats Explain the Allen Turn Around, Allen vs Idaho Preview, Salituro Assist Streak, Mountain Division Action & Allen's Shooting Percentage in Perspective



It is game day as the Allen Americans take on the Idaho Steelheads tonight (7:05 pm) in the second of their three game series.


-Before discussing the game tonight I want to share some stats that describe the turnaround that has taken place by the Americans in the last month. The most important stat is the record and prior to January 1st Allen's record was 8-26-0-2. In January the Americans record was 7-2-3-0.


- Here are a few stats comparing the Americans January performance and their performance from October through December. 


Goals - Allen averaged 4.0 goals per game and allowed 2.83 goals per game in the month of January. In October, November and December the Americans averaged 2.44 goals per game and allowed 3.92 goals per game. That is a goal differential of +1.17 after January 1st compared to -1.48 before.

Power Play - Allen's power play percentage in January was 27.7% (13-47). Prior to January 1st the power play percentage was 15.0% (23-153).

Penalty Kill - Allen's penalty kill percentage in January was 86.5% (7-52). Prior to January 1st the penalty kill percentage was 82.0% (34-189).

Shots - In January Allen averaged 28.8 shots per game while allowing their opponents 34.2 shots per game. Prior to January 1st Allen averaged 31.4 shots per game while allowing 36.75 shots per game.


-  It is very clear from looking at the stats above why Allen has played so well in January. They are scoring more and allowing fewer goals, the power play is much improved and the penalty kill is better. The one stat that is surprising is shots. Allen is allowing fewer shots per game but they are also taking fewer shots than earlier in the season. How can the offense be so much more productive yet the Americans are taking fewer shots. The answer is two fold. First, C.J. Motte had a better save percentage in January (.919) than prior to January (.912). However, the big difference has been in shooting percentage. The first three months of the season Allen had 88 goals on 1131 shots for a shooting percentage of 7.8%. In January Allen had 48 goals on 345 shots for a shooting percentage of 13.8%. The Americans are taking fewer shots but converting at a much higher rate.



GAME PREVIEW

 - The head to head stats in the four games against Idaho start with the Americans record of 2-0-2-0 which is excellent given Idaho is the top team in the Mountain Division. Allen has a 12-11 edge in goals but the Steelheads have the advantage in shots (144-108). In the two Allen wins the shots were close (58-53) but in the two overtime losses the Americans were out shot 86-55. Keeping the shot total close is a key in the game tonight.


-  When Allen plays well they do a good job of reducing turnovers and getting the puck in deep. Coach Martinson mentions this every time he is interviewed. If the Americans can accomplish this goal tonight they will keep the shots on goal down for Idaho and up for Allen which will give them a great chance of winning.

 
- Something to watch in the game tonight is whether there will be carryover of the bad blood from the game in Idaho on January 18 that resulted in suspensions for Allen's Zach Pochiro (2 games), Curt Gogol (5 games), Emerson Clark (5 games) and Idaho's Kale Kessy (10 games). With Gogol and Clark back in the lineup tonight you can be assured Allen will be hard to play against. The question is how will the Steelheads respond. Idaho is ranked #1 in average penalty minutes per game (21.25) and Allen is ranked #3 (20.92).


- Special teams will be a factor in the game tonight and that starts with staying out of the penalty box unless you take someone with you. In the first four games Allen is 4-15 (26.7%) on the power play while Idaho is 2-18 (11.1%) so the Americans have the advantage as long as they don't take a bunch more penalties than Idaho.


- Scoring first has not been important in the four previous games between Allen and Idaho. In three of the four games, including Allen's win in Wednesday, the team that scored first lost the game. With that said the odds remain very high the team that scores first tonight will win the game.


- Keep an eye on #15 Dante Salituro tonight. If he gets an assist in the game he will tie the ECHL's longest assist streak this season, nine straight games.



- The referee scheduled tonight is Steven Rouillard (#3) and the linesmen will be Jordan Solomon (#78) and Aaron Schacht (#31)



OTHER COMMENTS

- Allen has won their last three home games after starting the season 3-11-0-0 at home. With the three straight home wins the Americans have raised their home winning percentage to .353. That is still lower than the road winning percentage (.371) but it is headed in the right direction. Just to get to .500 at home for the season, Allen will have to have a record of 12-7 over their remaining 19 home games.


- Three Mountain Division teams will be playing teams outside the division tonight. Tulsa is at Toledo, Rapid City is at Cincinnati and Kansas City hosts South Carolina. These will all be tough games for the Mountain Division teams who have not fared well in inter divisional play this season. In other action, in addition to Idaho at Allen, the Utah Grizzlies visit the Wichita Thunder. Here is the ECHL Today with a short preview of all 11 games on tap tonight. https://www.echl.com/en/news/2019/2/echl-today-feb-1 


- If you haven't seen the full highlight package from Allen's 4-2 win on Wednesday here it is with all of the goals and some great saves by both goalies:





DID YOU KNOW: One of the big reasons for Allen's resurgence in the month of January was their shooting percentage of  13.8%. It is only one month but here is how it compares to prior seasons. Here are the team shooting percentages since the Americans joined the ECHL.

13.8%   2018-19 (January)
7.8%     2018-19 (October - December)
10.5%   2017-18
12.9%   2016-17
10.6%   2015-16
12.2%   2014-15

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