Sunday, March 16, 2025

Allen vs Utah Preview, Today's Lineup, Coach's Keys, ECHL Road Records, Goals For and Against Stats, Playoff Picture and More

 

After more than a week off, Allen is back in action this afternoon (2:10) against the Utah Grizzlies with a chance to get a win, something that has eluded the Americans in 22 of the last 26 games. It will be a battle between the two worst teams in the league. One on a three game losing streak (Allen) and one on a five game losing streak.

 

- The good news is Allen's record against Utah this season is 3-1-1-0. The bad news is all five games were played in the first two weeks of November. 

 

- What is certain is one of these teams will earn two points today and the other could earn one point considering the last two games they played went to overtime. If Allen has any hope of avoiding last place in the ECHL the game today is a must win. It has been six weeks since Allen has won a home game and the team is flirting with the record book when it comes to fewest home wins in a season. With six home wins and seven home games remaining, Allen needs to reach 10 wins the avoid the record book. The all time record of five home wins is safe, but if Allen goes 2-5 in the last seven home games that will tie for second on the all time list with eight home wins.

 

- Here is how Allen and Utah rank in some key stats this season:

  • Goals scored average: Allen #28 (2.40) - Utah #15 (3.12)
  • Goals allowed average: Allen #29 (4.14) - Utah #28 (4.12)
  • Shots for average: Allen #18 (29.28) - Utah #11 (31.58)
  • Shots against average:  Allen #29 (36.14) Utah #26 (34.60)
  • Power play percentage: Allen #24 (16.7%) - Utah #13 (19.7%)
  • Penalty kill percentage: Allen #18 (80.0%) - Utah #29 (70.9%)

 

- A couple of things to note from the stats above. Allen and Utah are the two worst teams in the league allowing over four goals per game. No other team allows more than 3.55 goals per game and half of the ECHL allows fewer than 3.00 goals per game. Allen has improved recently allowing three or fewer goals in seven of its last ten games. However, in the three games the Americans allowed more than three goals they gave up nine, six and four goals. 


- Allen's power play is 0-25 over the last 19 periods going back seven games. The Americans will be going up against the worst penalty kill unit in the league this afternoon at 70.9%. If Allen can break its long power play drought against Utah and win the special teams battle a win could be the result.

 

-  The first goal of the game is always important, even though Allen and Utah combined have scored first in only 39% of their games. Utah is much better when it does score first. Here are the records when scoring first along with the overall ECHL record:

  • Allen: 8-9-5-2 (.479)
  • Utah: 12-6-2-2 (.636)
  • ECHL: 596-163-82-25 (.750)

 

-  Coach Ferguson's keys to the game:

  • We can't trade chances with them. They have a skilled set of forwards who are smaller and shifty that like to attack off the rush. We need to defend and let our chances come organically and not try to force anything and make plays that aren't there.
  • Win battle of the blue paint. We need to clear them out of ours and take it to theirs. We can expose their defense down low.
  • We need to play a complete 60 minutes of hockey. Enough of 40 minutes of hockey. We haven't played in a week so everyone is fresh. They need to play their minutes to the best of their abilities. Only the goalie has to play all 60 minutes.

 

- It will be a different lineup for the Americans this afternoon with three recently acquired players, #14 Tyler Burnie, #16 Michael Gildon and #44 Brad Morrison seeing their first action and Mark Duarte not playing. Duarte did practice this week, but has not been cleared to play. Here is the lineup:

 

Forwards
#92 Watts - #17 Jacobs - #91 Matikka
#24 Bllaisdell - #84 Gorman - #11 Nault
#25 Westcott - #86 Kane - #44 Morrison
#21 Van Unen - #14 Burnie - #16 Gildon

Defense
#5 Wilson - #2 Warmuth
#57 LeDonne - #82 Fraser
#66 Kulakov - #23 Brassard
 
Goalie
#35 Thornton
#33 Richardson (backup)
 
 
- It will be a two referee game today with #28 Rocco Stachowiak and #5 Jarrett Burton working the game. Stachowiak has worked five games this season in Allen, but always with another partner. In those five games the number of penalties were 8, 15, 17, 6, and 10. You could expect some power play opportunities for both teams today.
 
 
OTHER COMMENTS  

- Here is the game preview for today's game from the Allen Americans: https://allenamericans.com/news/2025/03/game-day-pucks-n-paws-sunday
 
 
 - Adding three more players today to Allen's total for the season will make it 49 players used thus far. A long way from the top teams of Bloomington (58 players used) and Reading (53 players used), but it puts Allen in the top five. FYI, Utah has used 48 players this season.


- I have seen a lot of comments in the blog about how many season ticket holders renewed by the deadline. I went directly to the team to get the answer and 83% of season ticket holders renewed. That is the same percentage that renewed last season. 
 
 
- After Rapid City had its 11 game winning streak snapped and lost three straight games most everyone, including myself, said the Rush playoff hopes were over. Rapid City has now won four straight and are back in the playoff hunt. The Rush are now four points behind fifth place Idaho and 10 points behind fourth place Wichita. To make it even more interesting Rapid City plays Wichita at home three times next weekend. If they sweep that series they will be within four points of a playoff spot with nine games to play. Chad Costello has been the best late season coach in the league the last three seasons. Twice in Allen his team came from way behind (last place) to make the playoffs. Could he do the same this season in Rapid City. It is still a long shot, but a sweep next weekend against Wichita will make it very exciting going down the stretch.
 
 
- Don't forget about Idaho who has been falling back in the playoff race and is now six points behind fourth place Wichita for the final playoff spot. The Steelheads entertain Allen at home for three games this week and are looking to get back in the playoff race with a sweep of the Americans.
 
 
- There are only eight games on the Sunday ECHL schedule. Here is the ECHL Today with all of the previews: https://echl.com/news/2025/03/echl-today-march-16  


- Here is the ECHL Stats post from yesterday which covers goals for and goals against. In general, with some exceptions, the Mountain Division has become a score first, defend second type of division. Maybe it is this style of play that has prevented the division from winning a Kelly Cup since 2017 when Colorado, Allen (2) and Alaska won four straight Kelly Cups:

 

Goals For (GF) and Goals Against (GA) stats say a lot:

- A rarity: South Carolina is #1 in GF (228) and #1 in GA (140).
 
- Indy is #29 in GF (135).
 
- Utah is #29 in GA (247).
 
- Good Offense/Bad Defense:
Mountain Division has 4 of the top 7 in GF:
Tahoe is #2 (216)
Wichita is #3 (215)
Kansas City is #6 (205)
Idaho is #7 (201)
 
Mountain Division has the bottom 3 teams in GA:
Utah is #29 (247)
Allen is #28 (240)
Rapid City is #27 (213)


DID YOU KNOW: The ECHL Stats post today covers teams that play better on the road than at home. Allen makes the list and the Mountain Division is well represented:

So much for home ice advantage. Eight ECHL teams have better road records than home records. The eight teams include top teams and bottom teams, high attendance teams and low attendance teams, so go figure. The biggest discrepancy between road and home record belongs to Indy. The Fuel have six more road wins than home wins. The road record is listed first:
 
North:
Norfolk: 18-9-3-0 vs 16-13-1-0
Adirondack: 11-16-2-1 vs 10-19-1-0
 
South: None
 
Central:
Fort Wayne: 19-7-2-0 vs 16-2-3-0
Indy: 15-3-0-2 vs 9-13-4-2
 
Mountain:
Kansas City: 21-8-2-0 vs 17-8-2-1
Tulsa: 19-9-2-1 vs 15-9-3-2
Idaho: 16-9-4-0 vs 13-12-4-1
Allen: 8-16-4-1 vs 6-18-4-1

 

 

53 comments:

  1. Allen will get destroyed today. It’s what they do!

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  2. 83 percent renewal is good. shows the fans have hope the wins will come next season. My guess is itll be a completely new roster outside of maybe 2-3 players.

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    Replies
    1. I think some of the confusion may have been they were at 98% retention YOY. Regardless, 83% isn't bad considering the season the team has had.

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    2. More than 2-3 will be retained (should be retained).

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    3. Someone mentioned that it was 83% and it was 83% last year too. If that’s the case then that’s basically just under 69% of what was season-ticket members two years ago before the renewal. Not bad considering the things that have happened, but that’s not good either! While over two thirds, that means 31-32% have not renewed in past 24 months. Still a big drop.

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    4. ^ False. This assumes nobody NEW purchased season tickets and the total pool of potential renewals had no additions. Many people buy new season tickets each year and increase the total renewable population, or at least part of it. Your calculation of .83*.83 fails to consider any new buyers over the past two seasons. Right idea, but poor math on your end.

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    5. The person saying 69% is using bad math. They are assuming no new season ticks buyers over the past two seasons to get to their number. I get why they might think 69%, but its faluty math on their end.

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    6. Stand corrected. Thank you. But still likely decline in the long term STH continued renewals to some extent. Thanks again for correcting for new purchases.

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  3. Same front office that overstates attendance game after game

    83% is BS

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    Replies
    1. Give it a rest. Hate gets you nowhere and we all understand the reality of this year. So cut the hate. It’s not needed and please don’t say you’re being realistic. That’s a cop-out reply.

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    2. No sarcasm involved at all - no hate involved either - just an opinion your drama-queen ass is free to ignore

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  4. I thought Rapid City’s head coach was back?

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    Replies
    1. Not back. Simply "back" at the club.
      Chad will be the new HC/GM at Rapid City.

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    2. Call it a gut feel ....

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    3. Chad Costello is a damn good coach to whom players trust and respect. He is a proven winner as a player and a coach. Unbelievable travesty of events that resulted in this disaster of a season. Myles needs to fix this mess. He would be smart to bring Costello back if that were at all possible.

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    4. Madison - almost 90% of the “insight” posted by an anonymous posters is made up and is simply hopes and wishes… no one will cite and or give more context… if you challenge them, they throw insults and help prove their pettiness.

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    5. Some are in the know. What percentage that represents is merely a speculative guess.

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    6. “ Chad Costello is a damn good coach to whom players trust and respect. He is a proven winner as a player and a coach. Unbelievable travesty of events that resulted in this disaster of a season. Myles needs to fix this mess. He would be smart to bring Costello back if that were at all possible.”

      Costello was improving as a coach quickly but he actually coached Allen to their 3rd and 4th worst regular season records in the teams entire existence. He’s better than BJ that’s the main point I guess.

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  5. I thought Rapid City’s head coach was back

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    Replies
    1. I thought Rapid City’s head coach was back coaching?

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    2. Nope. That has never been announced.

      (RAPID CITY, S.D.)—The Rapid City Rush, proud ECHL affiliate of the NHL’s Calgary Flames, announced on Saturday that after a ten-week-long medical leave of absence, Head Coach and General Manager Scott Burt has returned to the Rush.

      Burt is back with his team after over a month of treatments for a cancerous brain tumor at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn. He plans to watch tonight’s game as a spectator.

      “I am excited to be back in Rapid City and with the team after a long ten weeks,” said Burt. “I stayed connected with the coaches throughout my leave, and personally, I worked to get myself in the best possible position mentally and physically. Peter and Chad have done a great job building the team. I look forward to slowly integrating myself back into the group, and I cannot wait for the next opportunity to get back behind the bench.”

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    3. Yeah he’s been back for about 6 games. Him and costy are both on the bench. Burt mostly running things now

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    4. Wrong. Costello is running things on the bench.

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    5. Um no. That’s exactly what’s happening. I’ve watched their last 10 games. Burt is back in the drivers seat and has been for 2 weeks. Costello is doing a fine job helping him though. Should help him get a job as a head coach somewhere next year

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  6. NEXT HC/GM: MASHINTER, MARTINSON, FERGUSON

    What's the odds of each?

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    Replies
    1. Myles is about to rock the Allen foundation with his coach announcement.

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    2. Chad Costello - 100% 💪🏻👍🏻🎯

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    3. Link not working

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    4. https://www.rocklobstershockey.com/news/athens-rock-lobsters-clinch-2025-commissioner-cup

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    5. I'm interested and want to know.
      But seriously, an office vote to retain Chad, no pucking way?
      That's insanity.

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  7. Predictions?

    Lots of cute pups!

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  8. Only way Myles can convince Americans fans he is serious about winning is to pay whatever it takes to get Martinson back.

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    Replies
    1. Myles needs to sell his shares in other Zawyer teams.

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    2. Fastest way for this team to win again is bringing back Martinson

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  9. Barry, as always thank you for your diligent insight. Your information portal is an under appreciated source for fans!

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    Replies
    1. Yes, kudos to Barry for the insight and information.

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    2. Yep, without Barry we would have little to no information about what the Americans are doing

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  10. Red Kingdom has to come back next season. This intro is a horrible remake (the cheesy foil background looks like an 11th grade film class made it). Red Kingdom is by and far what the intro should be.

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    Replies
    1. Hate to admit it, but that foil background does make it look to cheap.

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  11. Regarding Martinson chirping at the league office. Great coaches SHOULD keep the entrenched interests centered and sliding back to being honest. Period.

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  12. "entrenched interests centered and sliding back to being honest. Period"

    Agree 100% Homer Goodfellow Jr the Third!

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  13. Loving the dogs! Too bad their is a crappy hockey game getting in the way

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  14. I clearly missed something weeks ago and failed to ask. What happened to Asuchuck?

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    Replies
    1. Broken ribs from hitting the boards.

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    2. The same Asuchak who’s leading the team in goals?

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    3. Heard he spent 3 days at the KC hospital with a collapsed lung and broken ribs. Good to see him on the bench today

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    4. Thanks, Michael

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  15. How do you not give the number one star to the Utah Goalie?????

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