The nature of playoff hockey is don't get too high and don't get too low. The time for reveling in the glory of two road wins is now past and the focus for the Allen Americans is to deal with as coach Martinson said, "We have a few things to work on."
- The most important stat after two games in this series is Allen has a 2-0 lead but if you look behind the two wins there is room for improvement. The Americans were outshot in both games. In game one they held Idaho to just 29 shots which is way below the 40 shots per game the Steelheads averaged against Allen during the regular season. However, the Americans managed just 24 shots in game one. Game two was back to normal between these team with Idaho out shooting Allen 40-24. After two games the shot total is 69-48 in favor of Idaho. While Allen came away with two victories this is not the recipe for continued success so I am sure it will be an area of emphasis at practice the next couple of days.
- If you believe in percentages, which coach Martinson does, one stat to look at after two playoff games in the shooting percentage. Allen's was phenomenal at 16.7%. Only one other playoff team has a shooting percentage in double digits (Toledo at 10.7%). Allen had one of the top shooting percentages in the ECHL during the regular season at 10.5%. Regression to the mean would say the Americans will be unlikely to sustain a 16.7% shooting percentage because it is so far outside the normal range. Practically it means Allen needs to generate more than the 24 shots they had in each of the first two games because the shooting percentage will be less than 16.7%.
- Special teams will be another area where more work needs to be done. The Americans were 0-5 on the power play in Idaho though they did score a goal three seconds after an Idaho penalty expired. Over the last 12 games Allen is 4-33 on the power play (12.1%). The penalty kill unit gave up a goal in both games for a penalty kill percentage of 75% (2-8). The Allen penalty kill has been very good over the last 12 games at 86.4% (6-44). In addition to scoring a power play goal in both games in Idaho the Steelheads have converted at a rate of 15.4% over the last 12 games. The Idaho penalty kill was 0-5 in the first two games and has allowed a power play goal in just two if their last 12 games for a penalty kill percentage of 94.4% (2-36).
- What did work extremely well in Idaho for the Americans was getting off to fast starts. That had been an issue the last part of the season but the guys were ready to play from the opening puck drop in both games and the stats tell the story. Allen scored first in both games and never relinquished the lead in either game. Allen was outshot 69-48 in the two games and out of the six periods of play had the edge in only two. The Americans outshot the Steelheads in both of the first periods.
- It has only been two games but Allen's leading scorer is Braylon Shmyr with a goal and two assists. Braylon also leads the team in shots (6). Joel Chouinard leads all ECHL players with a plus/minus of +7.
- If you like tracking the odds, history says game three will be a tough one for Allen to win. Across the three major league sports (MLB, NBA & NHL) in seven game series when a team starts on the road and takes a 2-0 lead their odds of winning game three is 54.7%. If you look at the NHL only the odds drop to 52.7% and if you look at NHL opening rounds only the odds drop to 42.4%.
- Since joining the ECHL Allen has played in 10 playoff series. Their record in game three of those 10 playoff series is 4-6. The Americans record in game three at home is 1-2. The road record in game three is 3-4.
- Wichita opened their playoffs, the first since 2013, with a bitter defeat at the hands of the Colorado Eagles last night. Because of arena availability in Colorado the Thunder got to open the series at home. Wichita took a 1-0 lead at the 7:12 mark of the first period and held that lead until midway through the third period before Colorado got the equalizer on a power play. Despite being outshot 39-14 the Thunder got the game to overtime with the score tied 1-1. Colorado crushed Wichita's hopes in the worst way scoring the overtime game winner on a shorthanded breakaway goal.
- Here is how the eight ECHL first round playoffs series currently stand:
North Division
#1
Adirondack vs #4 Worcester - Adirondack leads 2-1
#2
Manchester vs #3 Reading - Manchester leads 2-0
South Division
#1
Florida vs #4 Atlanta - The first game of this series is tonight.
#2 South Carolina vs #3
Orlando - Orlando leads 2-0
Central Division
#1 Toledo
vs #4 Indy - Toledo leads 2-0
#2 Fort Wayne vs #3 Cincinnati - Fort Wayne leads 2-0
Mountain Division
#1
Colorado vs #4 Wichita - Colorado leads 1-0
#2 Idaho vs #3 Allen - Allen leads 2-0
- There have been 14 playoff games played thus far with five of them going to overtime. Of the five overtime games four went to double overtime. Another fun fact is the higher seeded team has won all five overtime games.
- The first round playoff dates for the AHL are out. Allen fans are interested in when Colby McAuley (San Jose) and/or Vincent Arseneau (Utica) might be available. Both teams will be heavy underdogs as #4 seeds going against the #1 seeded division champions. The series are the best of five and game three for both teams is April 25 so that is the soonest these players would be available if their teams get swept. Game five is April 29 for Utica and April 28 for San Jose. If either team pulls off a first round upset the second round would not conclude until the middle of May.
- Allen's leading scorer against Idaho this season including the two playoff games is Joel Chouinard who has 12 points in 12 games, all assists. The leading goal scorer is Bryan Moore with five goals in 12 games.
DID YOU KNOW: With two more playoff games under his belt this past weekend Spencer Asuchak is now at the top of the heap in career playoffs games. Here are the all-time top five, a who's who of Allen history.
78 games - Spencer Asuchak
76 games - Greger Hanson
61 games - Jamie Schaafsma
61 games - Tyler Ludwig
60 games - Chad Costello
You can't talk about playoff records without mentioning Riley Gill who has been out with an injury he suffered in a game way back on October 21. If not for that injury Riley would be adding to his already out of reach ECHL all-time career playoff records. Here are three to contemplate and remember the ECHL is celebrating its 30th anniversary.
Most Playoff Wins - Riley has won 53 playoff games which has produced three Kelly Cup championships (two in Allen & one in Reading). Second place for most playoff wins is 43 and third place is 31.
Most Playoff Game Appearances - Riley has appeared in 90 playoff games. Second place is 80 and third place is 48.
Most Playoff Minutes Played - Riley has logged 5095 minutes, 254 more than second place and 2189 more minutes than third place.
Monday, April 16, 2018
Sunday, April 15, 2018
Allen Does it Again on the Road, Takes 2-0 Series Lead, Game Recap, Video Highlights, Martinson's Comments, ECHL Playoff Update, Barracuda Miracle and More Encouraging Stats
The Allen Americans defeated the Idaho Steelheads 5-4 last night before a disappointed crowd of 4612 at CenturyLink Arena. The Americans head home with a 2-0 series lead and the next three games (Wednesday, Friday, & Sunday) in Allen.
- In the story of the game last night the first chapter was just like the game on Friday. Allen had another great start. Just like Friday one of the young guns got the party started. This time it was Jared Bethune who won a puck battle behind the net and scored on a wrap around by bouncing the puck off the pad of Idaho goalie Tomas Sholl.
- It got even better for the Americans five minutes later when Casey Pierro-Zabotel deflected a shot from the point by Joel Chouinard past Sholl to give the Americans a 2-0 lead. At that point it looked like Idaho was in deep trouble. Allen scored on two of their first six shots and had a shot lead of 11-0 before allowing the Steelheads a shot on goal. There was 7:08 left in the first period when Idaho recorded their first shot. Once Idaho took that first shot the script was flipped for the rest of the period. In the last 7:08 Allen took more penalties (3) than shots on goal (1) while Idaho had nine shots and two goals. The period ended with the score tied 2-2 and Idaho with all of the momentum.
- Unlike the game on Friday the Americans fell into some of their old habits after that great start. Turnovers and penalties created ample opportunity for Idaho to take charge but Allen kept working hard and never allowed the Steelheads to take the lead. David Makoswki scored the only goal of the second period even though Allen was outshot 18-7. A 3-2 lead after the second period was a good sign since Allen's record with a second period lead during the regular season was 25-4-0-1.
- Allen got a two goal lead twice in the third period but to Idaho's credit they never gave up and kept coming back but could never get the tying goal. The Americans came away with the victory and that is all that counts but they need to improve for the game on Wednesday. A great start paved the way for the win but consider this, Allen had a two goal lead and a shot advantage of 11-0 when Idaho recorded their first shot. From that point until the end of the game the Americans were outshot 40-13.
- Goal scorers for Allen were Jared Bethune (1), Casey Pierro-Zabotel (1 & 2), David Makowski (2) and Zach Pochiro (1). It was a nice combination of contributions from the new guys and the vets. There were only four assists on the five goals with two going to Braylon Shmyr. Casey had two goals on three shots and was +3. Joel Chouinard had an assist and was +4.
- Allen players occupy the top five spots in the ECHL playoff plus/minus standings:
+7 Joel Chouinard
+5 Casey Pierro-Zabotel
+4 Alex Guptill
+4 David Makowski
+4 Braylon Schmyr
- Braylon Shmyr is tied with five other players for the league lead in points with a goal and two assists.
- Here is the game recap from the Allen Americans: https://allenamericans.com/americans-take-2-0-series-lead-headed-back-to-allen/
- Here is the game recap from the Idaho Steelheads: http://www.idahosteelheads.com/events/2018-u-s-bank-echl-kelly-cup-playoffs-game-b/#gametab-2
- Here is the game recap from C.C. Hawkley who covers the Idaho Steelheads for Team Sin Bin: https://thesinbin.net/stunned-steelheads-suffer-second-home-hangup-against-allen/
- Here are the video highlights. The only Allen goal missing is the Zach Pochiro empty net goal that went the length of the ice and proved to be the game winner. Things to note on these goals include how Jared Bethune won the puck battle behind the net before scoring his goal, how Chouinard and Casey worked together on Pierro-Zabotel's first goal, how Makowski's goal rang off the post and Braylon Shmyr's play/pass on Pierro-Zabotel's second goal.
- I had a chance to touch base briefly with coach Martinson this morning before the team caught a very early flight on their way back to Allen. Here are his comments:
"The five-on-three penalty kill early in the third period was a critical kill."
"We got some help when Idaho seemed to get caught up with I want to score more than we need to score."
"We have a few things to work on but obviously we are in a good spot."
"Idaho's third goal was clearly a tip that was head high. It is disappointing with four officials that was missed. You could see their players look right at the referee to see if the goal would be disallowed."
OTHER COMMENTS
- The Americans had very early flights this morning (around 5:30 am) and are expected to arrive back in Allen around 2:00 pm. They will have a couple of days to prepare for game three on Wednesday. Game three in this series will be a critical game and it goes without saying Idaho will be playing desperate. If the Americans can get a win in game three this could be a short series. If the Steelheads win they will be right back in the series.
- Officially Allen lost the special teams battle again last night going 0-2 on the power play while Idaho was 1-4. However, Allen's second goal was scored three seconds after an Idaho penalty expired so technically it wasn't a power play goal but was scored before the Steelhead player got back in the play.
- Here is the story of the San Jose Barracuda directly from the AHL website:
"The San Jose Barracuda completed one of the most unlikely turnarounds in American Hockey League history on Saturday night, clinching the 16th and final spot in the 2018 Calder Cup Playoffs. San Jose defeated Stockton, 2-1, and then watched San Diego drop a 6-3 decision in Tucson, sending the Barracuda into the playoffs for the third straight spring. On the morning of April 4, San Jose sat in eighth place in the Pacific Division and trailed the Gulls by 10 points. But the Barracuda won their final six games in a row while San Diego stumbled to six losses in their last seven outings. San Jose, which advanced all the way to the Western Conference Finals in 2017, will meet Tucson in the Pacific Division semifinals."
- Congrats to the Barracuda who passed four teams in the final 10 days of the season to make the playoffs. San Jose's success means Allen will not see Colby McAuley anytime soon. San Jose's first round playoff dates will be announced at noon. The first round in the AHL is best of five. Vincent Arseneau's team (Utica) is also in the playoffs and will play the top team in the AHL (Toronto Marlies) in the first round.
- Here is a brief recap of where the eight ECHL first round playoffs are at:
North Division
#1 Adirondack vs #4 Worcester - This series is a 1-2-2-1-1 format as these teams are only about 180 miles apart and there must be some scheduling issues. The series is tied 1-1 with home teams getting shutouts in the first two games. Game three is today in Worcester.
#2 Manchester vs #3 Reading - This series is the typical 2-3-2 format and Manchester has the lead 2-0 winning the first two games at home. Both games had the exact same score (3-2) and both went to double overtime. Two heart breakers for Reading who scored first in both games. The series now moves to Reading for game three on Monday.
South Division
#1 Florida vs #4 Atlanta - This series is a 2-3-2 format and is yet to get underway. The first two games of the series, in Florida, will take place on Monday and Tuesday.
#2 South Carolina vs #3 Orlando - This series is a 2-3-2 format and has been the surprise of the playoffs thus far. South Carolina had 29 more points than Orlando in the regular season and head to head was 7-3-0-1 against the Solar Bears. However, Orlando has taken a 2-0 series lead winning in South Carolina 2-0 and 2-1. The series now heads back to Orlando for game three on Thursday.
Central Division
#1 Toledo vs #4 Indy - Another 2-3-2 format which has Toledo ahead 1-0. It took double overtime for Toledo to win game one at home. Game two is today in Toledo.
#2 Fort Wayne vs #3 Cincinnati - This 2-3-2 series opened in Fort Wayne last night with the Komets winning 4-3. It took double overtime to get the win and former Allen captain Jamie Schaafsma was the hero with the game winning goal after 26:29 of overtime. Game two of this series is today.
Mountain Division
#1 Colorado vs #4 Wichita - This format is 2-3-1-1 and will actually start in Wichita because of scheduling conflicts is Colorado. Game one and two will take place this afternoon and tomorrow (Monday) night.
#3 Allen vs #2 Idaho - Allen has a 2-0 series lead in this 2-3-2 format series. Game three is in Allen on Wednesday.
- Idaho goalie Tomas Sholl has to be wondering how he can beat the Allen Americans. Sholl has played 12 games for Idaho since joining them in early March, winning nine and losing three. All three losses have been to Allen. In 12 games Sholl has allowed only 18 goals but 10 of the 18 have been scored by Allen. His save percentage in the three games against Allen is .861. His save percentage in the nine games against other opponents is an outstanding .968.
DID YOU KNOW: Since I ended the blog with some reassuring statistics yesterday thought I would do the same today. After two games in the Allen vs Idaho series the Steelheads have not led in either game. Allen has never lost a series under coach Steve Martinson when leading 2-0. Finally, in the NHL there have been 360 seven game series where one team has taken a 2-0 lead. The team with the 2-0 series lead has won the series 86.4% of the time.
- In the story of the game last night the first chapter was just like the game on Friday. Allen had another great start. Just like Friday one of the young guns got the party started. This time it was Jared Bethune who won a puck battle behind the net and scored on a wrap around by bouncing the puck off the pad of Idaho goalie Tomas Sholl.
- It got even better for the Americans five minutes later when Casey Pierro-Zabotel deflected a shot from the point by Joel Chouinard past Sholl to give the Americans a 2-0 lead. At that point it looked like Idaho was in deep trouble. Allen scored on two of their first six shots and had a shot lead of 11-0 before allowing the Steelheads a shot on goal. There was 7:08 left in the first period when Idaho recorded their first shot. Once Idaho took that first shot the script was flipped for the rest of the period. In the last 7:08 Allen took more penalties (3) than shots on goal (1) while Idaho had nine shots and two goals. The period ended with the score tied 2-2 and Idaho with all of the momentum.
- Unlike the game on Friday the Americans fell into some of their old habits after that great start. Turnovers and penalties created ample opportunity for Idaho to take charge but Allen kept working hard and never allowed the Steelheads to take the lead. David Makoswki scored the only goal of the second period even though Allen was outshot 18-7. A 3-2 lead after the second period was a good sign since Allen's record with a second period lead during the regular season was 25-4-0-1.
- Allen got a two goal lead twice in the third period but to Idaho's credit they never gave up and kept coming back but could never get the tying goal. The Americans came away with the victory and that is all that counts but they need to improve for the game on Wednesday. A great start paved the way for the win but consider this, Allen had a two goal lead and a shot advantage of 11-0 when Idaho recorded their first shot. From that point until the end of the game the Americans were outshot 40-13.
- Goal scorers for Allen were Jared Bethune (1), Casey Pierro-Zabotel (1 & 2), David Makowski (2) and Zach Pochiro (1). It was a nice combination of contributions from the new guys and the vets. There were only four assists on the five goals with two going to Braylon Shmyr. Casey had two goals on three shots and was +3. Joel Chouinard had an assist and was +4.
- Allen players occupy the top five spots in the ECHL playoff plus/minus standings:
+7 Joel Chouinard
+5 Casey Pierro-Zabotel
+4 Alex Guptill
+4 David Makowski
+4 Braylon Schmyr
- Braylon Shmyr is tied with five other players for the league lead in points with a goal and two assists.
- Here is the game recap from the Allen Americans: https://allenamericans.com/americans-take-2-0-series-lead-headed-back-to-allen/
- Here is the game recap from the Idaho Steelheads: http://www.idahosteelheads.com/events/2018-u-s-bank-echl-kelly-cup-playoffs-game-b/#gametab-2
- Here is the game recap from C.C. Hawkley who covers the Idaho Steelheads for Team Sin Bin: https://thesinbin.net/stunned-steelheads-suffer-second-home-hangup-against-allen/
- Here are the video highlights. The only Allen goal missing is the Zach Pochiro empty net goal that went the length of the ice and proved to be the game winner. Things to note on these goals include how Jared Bethune won the puck battle behind the net before scoring his goal, how Chouinard and Casey worked together on Pierro-Zabotel's first goal, how Makowski's goal rang off the post and Braylon Shmyr's play/pass on Pierro-Zabotel's second goal.
- I had a chance to touch base briefly with coach Martinson this morning before the team caught a very early flight on their way back to Allen. Here are his comments:
"The five-on-three penalty kill early in the third period was a critical kill."
"We got some help when Idaho seemed to get caught up with I want to score more than we need to score."
"We have a few things to work on but obviously we are in a good spot."
"Idaho's third goal was clearly a tip that was head high. It is disappointing with four officials that was missed. You could see their players look right at the referee to see if the goal would be disallowed."
OTHER COMMENTS
- The Americans had very early flights this morning (around 5:30 am) and are expected to arrive back in Allen around 2:00 pm. They will have a couple of days to prepare for game three on Wednesday. Game three in this series will be a critical game and it goes without saying Idaho will be playing desperate. If the Americans can get a win in game three this could be a short series. If the Steelheads win they will be right back in the series.
- Officially Allen lost the special teams battle again last night going 0-2 on the power play while Idaho was 1-4. However, Allen's second goal was scored three seconds after an Idaho penalty expired so technically it wasn't a power play goal but was scored before the Steelhead player got back in the play.
- Here is the story of the San Jose Barracuda directly from the AHL website:
"The San Jose Barracuda completed one of the most unlikely turnarounds in American Hockey League history on Saturday night, clinching the 16th and final spot in the 2018 Calder Cup Playoffs. San Jose defeated Stockton, 2-1, and then watched San Diego drop a 6-3 decision in Tucson, sending the Barracuda into the playoffs for the third straight spring. On the morning of April 4, San Jose sat in eighth place in the Pacific Division and trailed the Gulls by 10 points. But the Barracuda won their final six games in a row while San Diego stumbled to six losses in their last seven outings. San Jose, which advanced all the way to the Western Conference Finals in 2017, will meet Tucson in the Pacific Division semifinals."
- Congrats to the Barracuda who passed four teams in the final 10 days of the season to make the playoffs. San Jose's success means Allen will not see Colby McAuley anytime soon. San Jose's first round playoff dates will be announced at noon. The first round in the AHL is best of five. Vincent Arseneau's team (Utica) is also in the playoffs and will play the top team in the AHL (Toronto Marlies) in the first round.
- Here is a brief recap of where the eight ECHL first round playoffs are at:
North Division
#1 Adirondack vs #4 Worcester - This series is a 1-2-2-1-1 format as these teams are only about 180 miles apart and there must be some scheduling issues. The series is tied 1-1 with home teams getting shutouts in the first two games. Game three is today in Worcester.
#2 Manchester vs #3 Reading - This series is the typical 2-3-2 format and Manchester has the lead 2-0 winning the first two games at home. Both games had the exact same score (3-2) and both went to double overtime. Two heart breakers for Reading who scored first in both games. The series now moves to Reading for game three on Monday.
South Division
#1 Florida vs #4 Atlanta - This series is a 2-3-2 format and is yet to get underway. The first two games of the series, in Florida, will take place on Monday and Tuesday.
#2 South Carolina vs #3 Orlando - This series is a 2-3-2 format and has been the surprise of the playoffs thus far. South Carolina had 29 more points than Orlando in the regular season and head to head was 7-3-0-1 against the Solar Bears. However, Orlando has taken a 2-0 series lead winning in South Carolina 2-0 and 2-1. The series now heads back to Orlando for game three on Thursday.
Central Division
#1 Toledo vs #4 Indy - Another 2-3-2 format which has Toledo ahead 1-0. It took double overtime for Toledo to win game one at home. Game two is today in Toledo.
#2 Fort Wayne vs #3 Cincinnati - This 2-3-2 series opened in Fort Wayne last night with the Komets winning 4-3. It took double overtime to get the win and former Allen captain Jamie Schaafsma was the hero with the game winning goal after 26:29 of overtime. Game two of this series is today.
Mountain Division
#1 Colorado vs #4 Wichita - This format is 2-3-1-1 and will actually start in Wichita because of scheduling conflicts is Colorado. Game one and two will take place this afternoon and tomorrow (Monday) night.
#3 Allen vs #2 Idaho - Allen has a 2-0 series lead in this 2-3-2 format series. Game three is in Allen on Wednesday.
- Idaho goalie Tomas Sholl has to be wondering how he can beat the Allen Americans. Sholl has played 12 games for Idaho since joining them in early March, winning nine and losing three. All three losses have been to Allen. In 12 games Sholl has allowed only 18 goals but 10 of the 18 have been scored by Allen. His save percentage in the three games against Allen is .861. His save percentage in the nine games against other opponents is an outstanding .968.
DID YOU KNOW: Since I ended the blog with some reassuring statistics yesterday thought I would do the same today. After two games in the Allen vs Idaho series the Steelheads have not led in either game. Allen has never lost a series under coach Steve Martinson when leading 2-0. Finally, in the NHL there have been 360 seven game series where one team has taken a 2-0 lead. The team with the 2-0 series lead has won the series 86.4% of the time.
Saturday, April 14, 2018
Allen Gets Big Road Win, Takes 1-0 Series Lead, Game Recap, Video Highlights, Martinson's Comments, Rematch Preview, Barracuda Update, Series Win Probabilities and More
It was Friday the 13th but a great start for the Allen Americans last night as they kicked off the 2018 Kelly Cup playoffs with a big win on the road. Allen beat Idaho 3-2 before one of the smaller crowds of the season (3918) at CenturyLink Arena. One of the keys to the game was to get off to a good start and Allen accomplished that scoring the first goal 116 seconds into the game. The teams kept trading goals throughout the game but Allen began and ended the scoring for the 3-2 victory.
- The great start did not end with scoring the first goal as the Americans out shot the Steelheads (10-9) in the first period. That is a feat Allen had not accomplished in the last 13 periods against Idaho going all the way back to January 5th. The first period ended on a positive note as the Americans took a 2-1 lead into the first intermission. Allen's regular season record with a lead after the first period was 21-4-1-0.
- Allen's three goals were all very different. Braylon Shmyr scored the first goal, his third since joining the Americans, when he drove the net, got behind the defense, took a great pass from Alex Guptill and tipped the puck home. David Makowski scored the second goal, his 12th of the season on a great individual effort. David intercepted a muffed clearing pass at the blue line, took a couple of strides up the slot and finished like only he can (high glove side) to give Allen a 2-1 lead. Allen's game winning goal was scored by Bryan Moore, his 22nd of the season, on a three-on-one break in the third period. Mike Gunn made a great pass to Spencer Asuchak to start the play, Spencer carried the puck into the zone and dropped a pass right on the tape to Moore who buried the puck.
- Here is the game recap from the Idaho Steelheads which describes all of the goals: http://www.idahosteelheads.com/events/2018-u-s-bank-echl-kelly-cup-playoffs-game/#gametab-2
- Here is the game recap from C.C. Hawkley who covers the Idaho Steelheads for Team Sin Bin: https://thesinbin.net/allen-americans-and-idaho-steelheads-trade-goals-and-punches-in-game-one/
- Here are the video highlights. Take the time to watch this a few times and focus on the play by Guptill on the first goal, how Makowski picks his spot on the second goal and the pass by Gunn to start the three-on-one and the play by Asuchak on the Moore goal. Good stuff by the Americans.
- After allowing Idaho 44, 52 and 48 shots the last three times these teams played it was a different story last night when the Steelheads managed just 29 shots on goal.
- Idaho won the special teams battle going 1-3 on the power play while Allen was 0-3.
- Idaho opted to go with their experienced NHL contracted goalie, Philippe Desrosiers, even though he spent the last month with the Texas Stars and played sparingly (70 minutes). He hadn't started a game for Idaho since March 4. That meant the hottest goalie in the ECHL over the last month, Tomas Sholl, with a record of 9-0-1-1, a GAA of 1.24 and save percentage of .953 was on the bench. Granted Sholl's two losses were both against Allen. In the game last night Desrosiers stopped 21 of 24 shots for a save percentage of .875. Winning goalie Jake Paterson stopped 27 of 29 shots for a save percentage of .931.
STEVE MARTINSON'S POST GAME COMMENTS
- Steve Martinson had this to say in his post game interview, "We played the right way, the way we need to play to be successful. We limited our turnovers and played sound defensively. Jake Paterson was solid."
When I had a chance to touch base with Martinson this morning he had these comments:
"We played with better structure and discipline which allowed us to cut down on low percentage plays and turnovers."
"We still took three bad penalties. Bryan Moore's was the worst but he made up for that by scoring the game winner."
"Jake Paterson was solid in net. Idaho's first goal was a screen and their second goal was a broken play that created a three-on-one in front of the net."
ALLEN VS IDAHO GAME TWO REMATCH
- If Allen can repeat the effort they gave last night they will have a good chance to win game two. When Allen reduces turnovers, which in turn reduces shots on goal against, they fare well. They need to continue with that approach again tonight.
- One area that needs improvement is the power play that was 0-3 last night and is at 12.9% over the last 11 games. Chipping in with a power play goal would really help in the rematch tonight. It won't be easy against an Idaho penalty kill unit that has allowed a power play goal in only two of their last 11 games with a penalty kill percentage of 94.1%.
- The Allen penalty kill has been good even though they allowed a goal last night. Over the last 11 games the Americans penalty kill percentage is 87.2% (5-39). One thing is certain and that is most nights the winner of the special teams battle wins the game.
- You wonder how much of a dilemma it is for Idaho coach, Neil Graham, to decide who to start in goal tonight. With the record Tomas Sholl had over the last month along with the Steeleheads losing game one, Sholl should get the nod. It is worth noting that Sholl has allowed only 14 goals in his 11 starts for Idaho but half of them where in his two games against Allen. He gave up five goals to Allen in his last start on April 6.
- The referees for the game tonight are the same as last night, Andrew Bruggeman (#25) and Alex Garon (#9). The linesmen are Scott DeBaugh (#67) and Brendan Gormley (#38).
OTHER COMMENTS
- Allen was the only lower seed to win last night but a couple of the favorites had to put in a lot of extra work to get the job done. The #1 seed in the North Division, Adirondack had no trouble against the #4 seed Worcester easily defeating the Railers 3-0. However, in the other North Division series the #2 seed Manchester had to play two overtimes (37 minutes and 38 seconds) before defeating #3 seed, Reading, 3-2. It was a disappointing loss for Reading who had a 2-0 lead after the second period. In the only other ECHL action last night the #1 seed in the Central Division, Toledo scored the game winner 93 seconds into the second overtime to beat a scrappy Indy team 4-3. Former Allen player Tyler Barnes was the hero with the overtime gamer winner for Toledo.
- So far higher seeds (Adirondack, Manchester and Toledo) are ahead 1-0 in three series, lower seeds lead 1-0 in two series (Orlando and Allen) and three series have yet to start (Fort Wayne vs Cincinnati, Colorado vs Wichita and Florida vs Atlanta).
- Here is the ECHL Today with an update on all eight first round playoff series including a preview of the five games on tap tonight. https://www.echl.com/echl-today-april-14-2018
- It was hard to imagine 10 days ago when the San Jose Barracuda was sitting in last place and all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs that they would win five games in a row. The win streak along with some help from San Diego, who has lost four of their last five games, and the final playoff berth comes down to the last games of the season tonight. San Jose makes the playoffs if they win in Stockton and San Diego loses in Tucson in regulation. Otherwise San Diego is in and San Jose is out. Allen fans will be watching with mixed emotions hoping their AHL affiliate can make the playoffs after an amazing run the last 10 days but if the Barracuda fall short it could mean Colby McAuley will be assigned to Allen.
DID YOU KNOW: If you want some positive stats after the big win by Allen last night here are a couple that might be reassuring. Across all major league sports (MLB, NBA, NHL) there have been over 1300 seven games series played and the teams that took a 1-0 lead have gone on to win 71.1% of those series. A little closer to home the Allen Americans have never lost a series under coach Steve Martinson when they have taken a 1-0 series lead.
- The great start did not end with scoring the first goal as the Americans out shot the Steelheads (10-9) in the first period. That is a feat Allen had not accomplished in the last 13 periods against Idaho going all the way back to January 5th. The first period ended on a positive note as the Americans took a 2-1 lead into the first intermission. Allen's regular season record with a lead after the first period was 21-4-1-0.
- Allen's three goals were all very different. Braylon Shmyr scored the first goal, his third since joining the Americans, when he drove the net, got behind the defense, took a great pass from Alex Guptill and tipped the puck home. David Makowski scored the second goal, his 12th of the season on a great individual effort. David intercepted a muffed clearing pass at the blue line, took a couple of strides up the slot and finished like only he can (high glove side) to give Allen a 2-1 lead. Allen's game winning goal was scored by Bryan Moore, his 22nd of the season, on a three-on-one break in the third period. Mike Gunn made a great pass to Spencer Asuchak to start the play, Spencer carried the puck into the zone and dropped a pass right on the tape to Moore who buried the puck.
- Here is the game recap from the Idaho Steelheads which describes all of the goals: http://www.idahosteelheads.com/events/2018-u-s-bank-echl-kelly-cup-playoffs-game/#gametab-2
- Here is the game recap from C.C. Hawkley who covers the Idaho Steelheads for Team Sin Bin: https://thesinbin.net/allen-americans-and-idaho-steelheads-trade-goals-and-punches-in-game-one/
- Here are the video highlights. Take the time to watch this a few times and focus on the play by Guptill on the first goal, how Makowski picks his spot on the second goal and the pass by Gunn to start the three-on-one and the play by Asuchak on the Moore goal. Good stuff by the Americans.
- After allowing Idaho 44, 52 and 48 shots the last three times these teams played it was a different story last night when the Steelheads managed just 29 shots on goal.
- Idaho won the special teams battle going 1-3 on the power play while Allen was 0-3.
- Idaho opted to go with their experienced NHL contracted goalie, Philippe Desrosiers, even though he spent the last month with the Texas Stars and played sparingly (70 minutes). He hadn't started a game for Idaho since March 4. That meant the hottest goalie in the ECHL over the last month, Tomas Sholl, with a record of 9-0-1-1, a GAA of 1.24 and save percentage of .953 was on the bench. Granted Sholl's two losses were both against Allen. In the game last night Desrosiers stopped 21 of 24 shots for a save percentage of .875. Winning goalie Jake Paterson stopped 27 of 29 shots for a save percentage of .931.
STEVE MARTINSON'S POST GAME COMMENTS
- Steve Martinson had this to say in his post game interview, "We played the right way, the way we need to play to be successful. We limited our turnovers and played sound defensively. Jake Paterson was solid."
When I had a chance to touch base with Martinson this morning he had these comments:
"We played with better structure and discipline which allowed us to cut down on low percentage plays and turnovers."
"We still took three bad penalties. Bryan Moore's was the worst but he made up for that by scoring the game winner."
"Jake Paterson was solid in net. Idaho's first goal was a screen and their second goal was a broken play that created a three-on-one in front of the net."
ALLEN VS IDAHO GAME TWO REMATCH
- If Allen can repeat the effort they gave last night they will have a good chance to win game two. When Allen reduces turnovers, which in turn reduces shots on goal against, they fare well. They need to continue with that approach again tonight.
- One area that needs improvement is the power play that was 0-3 last night and is at 12.9% over the last 11 games. Chipping in with a power play goal would really help in the rematch tonight. It won't be easy against an Idaho penalty kill unit that has allowed a power play goal in only two of their last 11 games with a penalty kill percentage of 94.1%.
- The Allen penalty kill has been good even though they allowed a goal last night. Over the last 11 games the Americans penalty kill percentage is 87.2% (5-39). One thing is certain and that is most nights the winner of the special teams battle wins the game.
- You wonder how much of a dilemma it is for Idaho coach, Neil Graham, to decide who to start in goal tonight. With the record Tomas Sholl had over the last month along with the Steeleheads losing game one, Sholl should get the nod. It is worth noting that Sholl has allowed only 14 goals in his 11 starts for Idaho but half of them where in his two games against Allen. He gave up five goals to Allen in his last start on April 6.
- The referees for the game tonight are the same as last night, Andrew Bruggeman (#25) and Alex Garon (#9). The linesmen are Scott DeBaugh (#67) and Brendan Gormley (#38).
OTHER COMMENTS
- Allen was the only lower seed to win last night but a couple of the favorites had to put in a lot of extra work to get the job done. The #1 seed in the North Division, Adirondack had no trouble against the #4 seed Worcester easily defeating the Railers 3-0. However, in the other North Division series the #2 seed Manchester had to play two overtimes (37 minutes and 38 seconds) before defeating #3 seed, Reading, 3-2. It was a disappointing loss for Reading who had a 2-0 lead after the second period. In the only other ECHL action last night the #1 seed in the Central Division, Toledo scored the game winner 93 seconds into the second overtime to beat a scrappy Indy team 4-3. Former Allen player Tyler Barnes was the hero with the overtime gamer winner for Toledo.
- So far higher seeds (Adirondack, Manchester and Toledo) are ahead 1-0 in three series, lower seeds lead 1-0 in two series (Orlando and Allen) and three series have yet to start (Fort Wayne vs Cincinnati, Colorado vs Wichita and Florida vs Atlanta).
- Here is the ECHL Today with an update on all eight first round playoff series including a preview of the five games on tap tonight. https://www.echl.com/echl-today-april-14-2018
- It was hard to imagine 10 days ago when the San Jose Barracuda was sitting in last place and all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs that they would win five games in a row. The win streak along with some help from San Diego, who has lost four of their last five games, and the final playoff berth comes down to the last games of the season tonight. San Jose makes the playoffs if they win in Stockton and San Diego loses in Tucson in regulation. Otherwise San Diego is in and San Jose is out. Allen fans will be watching with mixed emotions hoping their AHL affiliate can make the playoffs after an amazing run the last 10 days but if the Barracuda fall short it could mean Colby McAuley will be assigned to Allen.
DID YOU KNOW: If you want some positive stats after the big win by Allen last night here are a couple that might be reassuring. Across all major league sports (MLB, NBA, NHL) there have been over 1300 seven games series played and the teams that took a 1-0 lead have gone on to win 71.1% of those series. A little closer to home the Allen Americans have never lost a series under coach Steve Martinson when they have taken a 1-0 series lead.
Friday, April 13, 2018
Allen vs Idaho Series Preview Part II - Head to Head Stats, Last 10 Games Stats and Conclusions
Yesterday in the first part of the Allen vs Idaho series preview the focus was mostly on season long stats. Today I want to focus on head to head stats and how these teams have performed in the last 10 games which may be a better indicator of what to expect in this series. However, before I get to that here are a couple of series previews from Idaho.
- Here is the series preview written by Brian McCormack of the Idaho Steelheads. Brian is the Director of Broadcasting and Media Relations for the Steelheads. He does a great job of setting the stage for this first round matchup between Allen and Idaho. This is the most complete and balanced series preview you will find so take the time to give it a read: http://www.idahosteelheads.com/blog/steelheads-news/series-preview-mountain-division-semifinals-2/
- Here is a series preview from C.C. Hawkley, who covers the Idaho Steeleheads for Team Sin Bin. He gives me credit for collaborating on this piece but the only part I provided was how Allen wins the series. C.C. did all the work. https://thesinbin.net/mountain-division-semifinal-preview-2-idaho-steelheads-vs-3-allen-americans/
HEAD TO HEAD
- Allen and Idaho played 10 times during the regular season and each team won five times. Allen's record against Idaho was 5-4-0-1. Idaho's record against Allen was 5-3-1-1.
- Allen held Idaho to one goal in three of the 10 games but gave up four or more goals in the other seven games. In the 10 game series Idaho outscored Allen 36-27.
- Allen had 33 shots on goal in each of their first two meetings against Idaho back in November. In the final eight games Allen never exceeded 26 shots on goal and had a low of 17 shots last Saturday. Idaho on the other hand had over 50 shots once and over 40 shots five times against Allen. In total the Steelheads outshot Allen 390-250 for an average of 14 more shots per game.
- Allen scored a power play goal in four of the ten games against Idaho including one game (November 11) when they were 4-8 on the power play and lost the game 5-4 in a shootout. Over the 10 games Allen was 8-47 on the power play for a percentage of 17.0%. Idaho scored a power play goal in seven of the 10 games including one game (November 25) when they were 4-9 and won the game 5-1. Over the 10 games Idaho was 13-60 on the power play for a percentage of 21.7%.
- Penalty minutes have been all over the place in the 10 games these teams have played this season. On November 24 and 25 they played in Idaho and combined for 244 penalty minutes. Last weekend they played twice in Allen and combined for 16 penalty minutes. The totals for the 10 games is 292 penalty minutes for Allen and 184 penalty minutes for Idaho.
LAST 10 GAMES
- Looking at the last 10 games for both teams reveals some interesting stats. To start with Allen's record is 4-4-2-0 compared to Idaho who has the best record in the ECHL at 9-0-1-0. Clearly Idaho is playing better hockey heading into the playoffs. Here are some other comparisons over the last 10 games.
GOALS - Allen has averaged 2.8 goals while allowing 3.3 goals per game. Idaho has averaged 3.7 goals while allowing just 1.3 per game. In their last 10 games the Steeleheads have had four shutouts, allowed one goal twice and two goals three times. The good news is the one game Idaho allowed more than two goals was against the Americans last Friday when Allen scored five goals.
SHOTS - Allen has been outshot in eight of the last 10 games. The Americans have been outshot 372-266 in the last 10 games. Idaho has only been outshot in three of their last 10 games and in total have outshot their opponents 332-261.
POWER PLAY - Allen has a power play goal in four of their last 10 games and overall is 4-28 for a power play percentage of 14.3%. Idaho has a power play goal in only three of their last 10 games and overall is 4-31 for a power play percentage of 12.9%
PENALTY KILL - Allen has given up a power play goal in three of their last 10 games. Their penalty kill percentage is 88.9% (4-36). Idaho has been even better giving up a power play goal in just two of their last 10 games. The Steelheads penalty kill percentage is 93.5% (2-31).
PENALTY MINUTES - Allen has reduced their penalty minutes substantially over the last 10 games. They are averaging 11.8 penalty minutes per game and have had six or fewer penalty minutes in four of the games. Idaho is averaging 14.8 penalty minutes over the last 10 games.
SCORING FIRST AND PLAYING WITH A LEAD
- Getting off to a good start and playing with the lead is so important and even more so in the playoffs. If you look at the leaguewide total, after 1944 regular season games the team that scored first won the game over 70% of the time.
- Allen's record when scoring first is 26-6-1-0. Idaho's record when scoring first is 31-9-1-3. The team that scores first will win most if not all of the games in this series.
- It will also be important for both teams to avoid playing from behind. Here are the combined records for Allen and Idaho which shows why playing from behind is a losing proposition and playing with a lead will equal success.
40-6-2-1 Leading after one period
10-26-6-0 Losing after one period
54-5-1-2 Leading after two periods
9-32-5-1 Losing after two periods
MISCELLANEOUS STATS & INFO
- Scoring a shorthanded goal is a big momentum booster and could be a factor in this series. During the regular season Idaho scored 10 shorthanded goals and allowed just four shorthanded goal. Allen scored seven shorthanded goals and allowed 10.
- Looking at goals scored by period shows Allen is best in the first period outscoring their opponents 70-54. The Americans have been outscored 82-80 in the second period and 88-79 in the third period. Idaho has the advantage in all three periods out scoring their opponents 62-53 in the first, 89-65 in the second and 84-62 in the third.
- A big difference in the playoffs is the two referee system. Players need to be aware of the second referee and avoid the behind the play penalties that often went unnoticed during the regular season. The officials for the game tonight are referees Andrew Bruggeman (#25) and Alex Garon (#9) and linesmen Scott DeBaugh (#67) and Ryan Nevins (#86).
- The San Jose Barracuda won again last night and what was once unlikely, making the playoffs, is becoming more realistic. San Jose has won five straight games and must win their final game on Saturday and have San Diego lose their final two games which are tonight and tomorrow night. If San Diego gets just one point tonight they will eliminate the Barracuda. The reason this is important to Allen is Colby McAuley will not be assigned while San Jose is still in the playoff hunt.
- No word on Vincent Arseneau's return to Allen and it may not happen until his team (Utica) has been eliminated from the playoffs. Utica has had several players assigned from their NHL affiliate (Vancouver) recently which could have an impact on when Arseneau returns.
- Idaho is also looking for the return of a key player as their captain and leading scorer, Jefferson Dahl, is in Cleveland (AHL). Cleveland will not make the playoffs so Dahl should be returned to Idaho after Cleveland finishes their season Saturday night.
CONCLUSIONS
- There has been plenty of stats and analysis leading up to this series with everyone trying to figure out which team will prevail. At some level you can throw the stats out the window. In my opinion this series will come down to three factors.
1. Coach Martinson - He will need every bit of his 22 years of coaching experience to put his team in position to win this series. You have to like his odds based on the 16 playoff series he has coached since Allen joined the ECHL in 2014. Martinson's record is 15-1 in playoff series. Having talked to Martinson several times this week he is going to take a big swing at making some system changes which is something he is not afraid to do. Martinson is at his best in seven game series.
2. The Roster - For Allen to win this series it will take a combination of great performance by the veterans with big contributions from the rookies. There is plenty of skill on the roster, the challenge is how they work as a team given many have not played together very long.
3. Will Over SKILL - This may be the most important factor in this series and one that is still unanswered. Sometimes it is not about the X's and O's or the percentages but it boils down to who wants it more. During the ups and downs of Allen's season it was the "want" that was sometimes missing not the skill.
DID YOU KNOW: When Allen played Idaho in the first round of the 2016 playoffs the first four games of the series ended with the exact same score, 3-1. They split the first two games in Allen and the first two games in Idaho. Things didn't look good for the Americans when the got spanked 7-1 in game five. The series returned to Allen where the Americans won games six and seven. Tristan King scored the overtime game winner in game seven and the Americans moved on to win their second Kelly Cup.
- Here is the series preview written by Brian McCormack of the Idaho Steelheads. Brian is the Director of Broadcasting and Media Relations for the Steelheads. He does a great job of setting the stage for this first round matchup between Allen and Idaho. This is the most complete and balanced series preview you will find so take the time to give it a read: http://www.idahosteelheads.com/blog/steelheads-news/series-preview-mountain-division-semifinals-2/
- Here is a series preview from C.C. Hawkley, who covers the Idaho Steeleheads for Team Sin Bin. He gives me credit for collaborating on this piece but the only part I provided was how Allen wins the series. C.C. did all the work. https://thesinbin.net/mountain-division-semifinal-preview-2-idaho-steelheads-vs-3-allen-americans/
HEAD TO HEAD
- Allen and Idaho played 10 times during the regular season and each team won five times. Allen's record against Idaho was 5-4-0-1. Idaho's record against Allen was 5-3-1-1.
- Allen held Idaho to one goal in three of the 10 games but gave up four or more goals in the other seven games. In the 10 game series Idaho outscored Allen 36-27.
- Allen had 33 shots on goal in each of their first two meetings against Idaho back in November. In the final eight games Allen never exceeded 26 shots on goal and had a low of 17 shots last Saturday. Idaho on the other hand had over 50 shots once and over 40 shots five times against Allen. In total the Steelheads outshot Allen 390-250 for an average of 14 more shots per game.
- Allen scored a power play goal in four of the ten games against Idaho including one game (November 11) when they were 4-8 on the power play and lost the game 5-4 in a shootout. Over the 10 games Allen was 8-47 on the power play for a percentage of 17.0%. Idaho scored a power play goal in seven of the 10 games including one game (November 25) when they were 4-9 and won the game 5-1. Over the 10 games Idaho was 13-60 on the power play for a percentage of 21.7%.
- Penalty minutes have been all over the place in the 10 games these teams have played this season. On November 24 and 25 they played in Idaho and combined for 244 penalty minutes. Last weekend they played twice in Allen and combined for 16 penalty minutes. The totals for the 10 games is 292 penalty minutes for Allen and 184 penalty minutes for Idaho.
LAST 10 GAMES
- Looking at the last 10 games for both teams reveals some interesting stats. To start with Allen's record is 4-4-2-0 compared to Idaho who has the best record in the ECHL at 9-0-1-0. Clearly Idaho is playing better hockey heading into the playoffs. Here are some other comparisons over the last 10 games.
GOALS - Allen has averaged 2.8 goals while allowing 3.3 goals per game. Idaho has averaged 3.7 goals while allowing just 1.3 per game. In their last 10 games the Steeleheads have had four shutouts, allowed one goal twice and two goals three times. The good news is the one game Idaho allowed more than two goals was against the Americans last Friday when Allen scored five goals.
SHOTS - Allen has been outshot in eight of the last 10 games. The Americans have been outshot 372-266 in the last 10 games. Idaho has only been outshot in three of their last 10 games and in total have outshot their opponents 332-261.
POWER PLAY - Allen has a power play goal in four of their last 10 games and overall is 4-28 for a power play percentage of 14.3%. Idaho has a power play goal in only three of their last 10 games and overall is 4-31 for a power play percentage of 12.9%
PENALTY KILL - Allen has given up a power play goal in three of their last 10 games. Their penalty kill percentage is 88.9% (4-36). Idaho has been even better giving up a power play goal in just two of their last 10 games. The Steelheads penalty kill percentage is 93.5% (2-31).
PENALTY MINUTES - Allen has reduced their penalty minutes substantially over the last 10 games. They are averaging 11.8 penalty minutes per game and have had six or fewer penalty minutes in four of the games. Idaho is averaging 14.8 penalty minutes over the last 10 games.
SCORING FIRST AND PLAYING WITH A LEAD
- Getting off to a good start and playing with the lead is so important and even more so in the playoffs. If you look at the leaguewide total, after 1944 regular season games the team that scored first won the game over 70% of the time.
- Allen's record when scoring first is 26-6-1-0. Idaho's record when scoring first is 31-9-1-3. The team that scores first will win most if not all of the games in this series.
- It will also be important for both teams to avoid playing from behind. Here are the combined records for Allen and Idaho which shows why playing from behind is a losing proposition and playing with a lead will equal success.
40-6-2-1 Leading after one period
10-26-6-0 Losing after one period
54-5-1-2 Leading after two periods
9-32-5-1 Losing after two periods
MISCELLANEOUS STATS & INFO
- Scoring a shorthanded goal is a big momentum booster and could be a factor in this series. During the regular season Idaho scored 10 shorthanded goals and allowed just four shorthanded goal. Allen scored seven shorthanded goals and allowed 10.
- Looking at goals scored by period shows Allen is best in the first period outscoring their opponents 70-54. The Americans have been outscored 82-80 in the second period and 88-79 in the third period. Idaho has the advantage in all three periods out scoring their opponents 62-53 in the first, 89-65 in the second and 84-62 in the third.
- A big difference in the playoffs is the two referee system. Players need to be aware of the second referee and avoid the behind the play penalties that often went unnoticed during the regular season. The officials for the game tonight are referees Andrew Bruggeman (#25) and Alex Garon (#9) and linesmen Scott DeBaugh (#67) and Ryan Nevins (#86).
- The San Jose Barracuda won again last night and what was once unlikely, making the playoffs, is becoming more realistic. San Jose has won five straight games and must win their final game on Saturday and have San Diego lose their final two games which are tonight and tomorrow night. If San Diego gets just one point tonight they will eliminate the Barracuda. The reason this is important to Allen is Colby McAuley will not be assigned while San Jose is still in the playoff hunt.
- No word on Vincent Arseneau's return to Allen and it may not happen until his team (Utica) has been eliminated from the playoffs. Utica has had several players assigned from their NHL affiliate (Vancouver) recently which could have an impact on when Arseneau returns.
- Idaho is also looking for the return of a key player as their captain and leading scorer, Jefferson Dahl, is in Cleveland (AHL). Cleveland will not make the playoffs so Dahl should be returned to Idaho after Cleveland finishes their season Saturday night.
CONCLUSIONS
- There has been plenty of stats and analysis leading up to this series with everyone trying to figure out which team will prevail. At some level you can throw the stats out the window. In my opinion this series will come down to three factors.
1. Coach Martinson - He will need every bit of his 22 years of coaching experience to put his team in position to win this series. You have to like his odds based on the 16 playoff series he has coached since Allen joined the ECHL in 2014. Martinson's record is 15-1 in playoff series. Having talked to Martinson several times this week he is going to take a big swing at making some system changes which is something he is not afraid to do. Martinson is at his best in seven game series.
2. The Roster - For Allen to win this series it will take a combination of great performance by the veterans with big contributions from the rookies. There is plenty of skill on the roster, the challenge is how they work as a team given many have not played together very long.
3. Will Over SKILL - This may be the most important factor in this series and one that is still unanswered. Sometimes it is not about the X's and O's or the percentages but it boils down to who wants it more. During the ups and downs of Allen's season it was the "want" that was sometimes missing not the skill.
DID YOU KNOW: When Allen played Idaho in the first round of the 2016 playoffs the first four games of the series ended with the exact same score, 3-1. They split the first two games in Allen and the first two games in Idaho. Things didn't look good for the Americans when the got spanked 7-1 in game five. The series returned to Allen where the Americans won games six and seven. Tristan King scored the overtime game winner in game seven and the Americans moved on to win their second Kelly Cup.
Thursday, April 12, 2018
Allen vs Idaho Game Preview - Part 1, Roster Update, Register and Makowski Finish 1st and 2nd Again, Rick Gosselin Story About Alex Guptill, NBCDFW.com Action Item and Riley Gill Update
The Allen Americans and Idaho Steelheads have never missed the playoffs since
joining the ECHL. This is the fourth year in the playoffs for Allen who
won the Kelly Cup in 2015 and 2016. It is the 15th straight year for
Idaho in the playoffs. They won the Kelly Cup in 2004 & 2007 and
lost in the finals in 2010.
- Despite their successful ECHL playoff history Allen is entering this series in a very unique position because they are the underdog. Only two of the sixteen teams in the playoffs had fewer points in the regular season than Allen. The Americans had 78 points which is the lowest point total in franchise history.
- Allen will have to rely on the old adage of once you make the playoffs anything can happen and Allen fans have reason to be optimistic. The Americans roster is vastly different since March 1st and the results have been as well. After struggling in January and February with a .326 winning percentage, coach Martinson made wholesale changes and it worked as the team's winning percentage from March 1st on was .647. It was a high risk move that has proved why Steve Martinson has been so successful over the years.
- How much of a gamble is Martinson making with this playoff roster? My answered is very little because the Americans wouldn't be in the playoffs without all of the changes. It is however, pretty dramatic when you consider Allen will go to battle with an unprecedented eight rookies on the playoff roster. There will also be eight players on the ice in this series that have played fewer than 15 games with the Americans this season including five that have played less than 10 games.
- Yesterday I included a matrix of the four Mountain Division teams in the playoffs. Here is how that matrix looks if you look at it head to head between Allen and Idaho
Goals Scored (average per game)
3.39 - Idaho
3.26 - Allen
Goals Allowed (average per game)
2.61 - Idaho
3.22 - Allen
Goal Differential (goals scored minus goals allowed)
+56 - Idaho
+3 - Allen
Shots For (average per game)
36.11 - Idaho
30.74 - Allen
Shots Against (average per game)
28.36 - Idaho
36.25 - Allen
Shooting Percentage (goals as a percent of total shots)
10.5% - Allen
9.1% - Idaho
Power Play Percentage
17.5% - Idaho
17.1% - Allen
Penalty Kill Percentage
84.2% - Idaho
81.6% - Allen
Power Play Goals Scored
57 - Idaho
51 - Allen
Plus/Minus
+229 - Idaho
+38 - Allen
Goals Against Average (GAA)
2.53 - Idaho
3.16 - Allen
Save Percentage
.912 - Allen
.909 - Idaho
Record Last 10 Games
9-0-1-0 - Idaho
4-4-2-0 - Allen
- Idaho outperforms Allen in 11 of the 13 stats above. The Americans have a better shooting percentage than Idaho (10.5% vs 9.1%) and a slightly better save percentage. These two stats will not be good enough if Allen can't generate more shots on goal and allow fewer shots on goal. Here are a couple of examples to illustrate the issue. Last weekend Allen and Idaho split two games but the Americans were outshot 96-42. If you look at the last eight times these teams played in the regular season which takes you back to November, Allen has never had more than 26 shots on goal and their average shots over the eight games is 23. Idaho on the other hand had over 50 shots once and over 40 shots five times with an average over the eight games of 41 shots per game.
- It is difficult to look at the stats above and not come away thinking Idaho is the better hockey team as there is no doubt based on the stats the Steelheads have the advantage. The stats don't lie but the team that will take the ice tomorrow night against Idaho is not the team that complied the stats above.
- A couple of notes about the lineup for tomorrow night. When the playoff roster was submitted to the league there were two players on the reserve list, Alexandre Carrier and Tristan King. While there is nothing preventing coach Martinson from swapping players on the reserve list it probably means King has still not recovered from his injury and will not be in the lineup. One player that will be in the lineup and playing a new position is rookie Matt Foget. Matt has played center almost exclusively in his career but played wing in his first two games in Allen. With Thomas Frazee ineligible for the playoffs, Foget will take over as the third center and be back at his natural position.
- The goalie matchup in this series will be something to watch. Jake Paterson has taken over as the #1 goalie since his arrival in Allen at the beginning of March and has played a big role in the team's turnaround. Other than missing a few games when he was injured Jake has been the go to guy and has complied a record of 9-4-1-0. Paterson has played against Idaho three times and stopped 135 of 144 shots for a save percentage of .938. Idaho will have to decide between their rookie goalie, Tomas Sholl, who has been outstanding since joining the team in early March and their experienced NHL contracted goalie, Philippe Desrosiers who was just assigned to the Steelheads by the Dallas Stars this week. Sholl has started 11 games for Idaho and has a record of 9-0-1-1 with a GAA of 1.24 and save percentage of .953. Hard to see him not getting the start however it is worth noting his two losses have come against Allen. Desrosiers was with the Texas Stars for over a month but played in only two games so has not seen a lot of game action recently.
- The game preview will continue tomorrow when I will dig deeper into the stats in comparing Allen and Idaho.
OTHER COMMENTS
- Many fans thought it was a matter of time before the San Jose Barracuda was eliminated from the playoffs with the hope that Colby McAuley would be assigned to Allen. The Barracuda have to win out and the San Diego Gulls have to lose their remaining games in regulation for San Jose to qualify for the playoffs. The Barracuda have been doing their part as they beat Bakersfield 2-1 last night for their fourth straight win while San Diego lost to Tuscon 4-0. San Jose plays Bakersfield again tonight in another win or go home game.
- The 2018 Kelly Cup playoffs officially get underway tonight with all eyes on the one game being played between Orlando and South Carolina. South Carolina is the #2 seed in the South Division but had the third most points (104) in the league during the regular season. Their record against the #3 seed Orlando this season was 7-3-0-1.
- For the second straight year Matt Register was voted as the ECHL Defenseman of the Year and David Makowski finished second. Just like last season Register led the league in points but Makowski led all defensmen in average points per game. Congrats to both.
- There is a great story written by Rick Gosselin about Alex Guptill in the Dallas Morning News this morning. Rick has been a great supporter of the Allen Americans over the years and has been a big help to me with his advice and counsel. Here is the Guptill story: https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-stars/stars/2018/04/11/winding-journey-former-stars-prospect-now-key-piece-allen-americans
- One of Allen's great fans brought this article from nbcdfw.com to my attention and all you need to see is the title to know how wrong it is, "Dallas Wings Only North Texas Professional Team to Make the Playoffs This Season." The article says in part, "When it comes to North Texas professional sports teams, women ruled this season. The WNBA's Dallas Wings are the only local pro team to make the playoffs. The Wings record may have been 16-18 but they still made it to the first round of the playoffs." I guess nbcdfw.com isn't aware of the Allen Americans who are in the playoffs for the ninth straight season and have won championships in four of the last five seasons. C'MON MAN!
I am sure Allen fans congratulate the Dallas Wings on their season but let's let nbcdfw.com know they are missing out on the most successful pro franchise in the DFW Metroplex. I will personally provide tickets for the home playoff games next week to anyone on the staff that would like to check out the Allen Americans. Read this story and take the time to contact nbcdfw.com and let them know about the Allen Americans. https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/sports/North-Texas-Major-Sports-Franchises-Dont-Make-Playoffs-for-the-First-Time-in-History-479288423.html
DID YOU KNOW: Here is a followup to the info from yesterday about Riley Gill. In case you missed it here it is again:
I have had a lot of questions regarding Riley Gill based on the ECHL transactions on Monday (April 9) that showed he was released by the team under the heading, "CONTRACTED PLAYERS RELEASED (unrestricted free agents as per ECHL Playing Rule 73 (f). That playing rule states that the last day a team may place a player on waivers is Friday, April 6. Any player released following that date is declared an unrestricted free agent and is ineligible to be added to another team's roster for the duration of the regular season or playoffs". The bottom line is Riley Gill is no longer with the Allen Americans and is now an unrestricted free agent.
Everything changed on Riley's status when the ECHL transactions were issued yesterday afternoon. Here is the exact wording: "release voided, player placed back on injured reserve (4/9), omitted from playoff roster due to injury"
Here is what my reporting turned up after talking to multiple sources about this entire matter. Back in October Riley made it clear to coach Martinson this would be his last season. When Martinson was notified this past week that Riley had been medically cleared he took the action to release him since he wasn't going to be ready for the playoffs having not played since October. It turned out there was some miscommunication between the doctors involved and in fact Gill had not been medically cleared. Thus the change was submitted to show that he is still on the injured reserve list. My reporting is that all involved know that once Gill is medically cleared he will be released.
- Despite their successful ECHL playoff history Allen is entering this series in a very unique position because they are the underdog. Only two of the sixteen teams in the playoffs had fewer points in the regular season than Allen. The Americans had 78 points which is the lowest point total in franchise history.
- Allen will have to rely on the old adage of once you make the playoffs anything can happen and Allen fans have reason to be optimistic. The Americans roster is vastly different since March 1st and the results have been as well. After struggling in January and February with a .326 winning percentage, coach Martinson made wholesale changes and it worked as the team's winning percentage from March 1st on was .647. It was a high risk move that has proved why Steve Martinson has been so successful over the years.
- How much of a gamble is Martinson making with this playoff roster? My answered is very little because the Americans wouldn't be in the playoffs without all of the changes. It is however, pretty dramatic when you consider Allen will go to battle with an unprecedented eight rookies on the playoff roster. There will also be eight players on the ice in this series that have played fewer than 15 games with the Americans this season including five that have played less than 10 games.
- Yesterday I included a matrix of the four Mountain Division teams in the playoffs. Here is how that matrix looks if you look at it head to head between Allen and Idaho
Goals Scored (average per game)
3.39 - Idaho
3.26 - Allen
Goals Allowed (average per game)
2.61 - Idaho
3.22 - Allen
Goal Differential (goals scored minus goals allowed)
+56 - Idaho
+3 - Allen
Shots For (average per game)
36.11 - Idaho
30.74 - Allen
Shots Against (average per game)
28.36 - Idaho
36.25 - Allen
Shooting Percentage (goals as a percent of total shots)
10.5% - Allen
9.1% - Idaho
Power Play Percentage
17.5% - Idaho
17.1% - Allen
Penalty Kill Percentage
84.2% - Idaho
81.6% - Allen
Power Play Goals Scored
57 - Idaho
51 - Allen
Plus/Minus
+229 - Idaho
+38 - Allen
Goals Against Average (GAA)
2.53 - Idaho
3.16 - Allen
Save Percentage
.912 - Allen
.909 - Idaho
Record Last 10 Games
9-0-1-0 - Idaho
4-4-2-0 - Allen
- Idaho outperforms Allen in 11 of the 13 stats above. The Americans have a better shooting percentage than Idaho (10.5% vs 9.1%) and a slightly better save percentage. These two stats will not be good enough if Allen can't generate more shots on goal and allow fewer shots on goal. Here are a couple of examples to illustrate the issue. Last weekend Allen and Idaho split two games but the Americans were outshot 96-42. If you look at the last eight times these teams played in the regular season which takes you back to November, Allen has never had more than 26 shots on goal and their average shots over the eight games is 23. Idaho on the other hand had over 50 shots once and over 40 shots five times with an average over the eight games of 41 shots per game.
- It is difficult to look at the stats above and not come away thinking Idaho is the better hockey team as there is no doubt based on the stats the Steelheads have the advantage. The stats don't lie but the team that will take the ice tomorrow night against Idaho is not the team that complied the stats above.
- A couple of notes about the lineup for tomorrow night. When the playoff roster was submitted to the league there were two players on the reserve list, Alexandre Carrier and Tristan King. While there is nothing preventing coach Martinson from swapping players on the reserve list it probably means King has still not recovered from his injury and will not be in the lineup. One player that will be in the lineup and playing a new position is rookie Matt Foget. Matt has played center almost exclusively in his career but played wing in his first two games in Allen. With Thomas Frazee ineligible for the playoffs, Foget will take over as the third center and be back at his natural position.
- The goalie matchup in this series will be something to watch. Jake Paterson has taken over as the #1 goalie since his arrival in Allen at the beginning of March and has played a big role in the team's turnaround. Other than missing a few games when he was injured Jake has been the go to guy and has complied a record of 9-4-1-0. Paterson has played against Idaho three times and stopped 135 of 144 shots for a save percentage of .938. Idaho will have to decide between their rookie goalie, Tomas Sholl, who has been outstanding since joining the team in early March and their experienced NHL contracted goalie, Philippe Desrosiers who was just assigned to the Steelheads by the Dallas Stars this week. Sholl has started 11 games for Idaho and has a record of 9-0-1-1 with a GAA of 1.24 and save percentage of .953. Hard to see him not getting the start however it is worth noting his two losses have come against Allen. Desrosiers was with the Texas Stars for over a month but played in only two games so has not seen a lot of game action recently.
- The game preview will continue tomorrow when I will dig deeper into the stats in comparing Allen and Idaho.
OTHER COMMENTS
- Many fans thought it was a matter of time before the San Jose Barracuda was eliminated from the playoffs with the hope that Colby McAuley would be assigned to Allen. The Barracuda have to win out and the San Diego Gulls have to lose their remaining games in regulation for San Jose to qualify for the playoffs. The Barracuda have been doing their part as they beat Bakersfield 2-1 last night for their fourth straight win while San Diego lost to Tuscon 4-0. San Jose plays Bakersfield again tonight in another win or go home game.
- The 2018 Kelly Cup playoffs officially get underway tonight with all eyes on the one game being played between Orlando and South Carolina. South Carolina is the #2 seed in the South Division but had the third most points (104) in the league during the regular season. Their record against the #3 seed Orlando this season was 7-3-0-1.
- For the second straight year Matt Register was voted as the ECHL Defenseman of the Year and David Makowski finished second. Just like last season Register led the league in points but Makowski led all defensmen in average points per game. Congrats to both.
- There is a great story written by Rick Gosselin about Alex Guptill in the Dallas Morning News this morning. Rick has been a great supporter of the Allen Americans over the years and has been a big help to me with his advice and counsel. Here is the Guptill story: https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-stars/stars/2018/04/11/winding-journey-former-stars-prospect-now-key-piece-allen-americans
- One of Allen's great fans brought this article from nbcdfw.com to my attention and all you need to see is the title to know how wrong it is, "Dallas Wings Only North Texas Professional Team to Make the Playoffs This Season." The article says in part, "When it comes to North Texas professional sports teams, women ruled this season. The WNBA's Dallas Wings are the only local pro team to make the playoffs. The Wings record may have been 16-18 but they still made it to the first round of the playoffs." I guess nbcdfw.com isn't aware of the Allen Americans who are in the playoffs for the ninth straight season and have won championships in four of the last five seasons. C'MON MAN!
I am sure Allen fans congratulate the Dallas Wings on their season but let's let nbcdfw.com know they are missing out on the most successful pro franchise in the DFW Metroplex. I will personally provide tickets for the home playoff games next week to anyone on the staff that would like to check out the Allen Americans. Read this story and take the time to contact nbcdfw.com and let them know about the Allen Americans. https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/sports/North-Texas-Major-Sports-Franchises-Dont-Make-Playoffs-for-the-First-Time-in-History-479288423.html
DID YOU KNOW: Here is a followup to the info from yesterday about Riley Gill. In case you missed it here it is again:
I have had a lot of questions regarding Riley Gill based on the ECHL transactions on Monday (April 9) that showed he was released by the team under the heading, "CONTRACTED PLAYERS RELEASED (unrestricted free agents as per ECHL Playing Rule 73 (f). That playing rule states that the last day a team may place a player on waivers is Friday, April 6. Any player released following that date is declared an unrestricted free agent and is ineligible to be added to another team's roster for the duration of the regular season or playoffs". The bottom line is Riley Gill is no longer with the Allen Americans and is now an unrestricted free agent.
Everything changed on Riley's status when the ECHL transactions were issued yesterday afternoon. Here is the exact wording: "release voided, player placed back on injured reserve (4/9), omitted from playoff roster due to injury"
Here is what my reporting turned up after talking to multiple sources about this entire matter. Back in October Riley made it clear to coach Martinson this would be his last season. When Martinson was notified this past week that Riley had been medically cleared he took the action to release him since he wasn't going to be ready for the playoffs having not played since October. It turned out there was some miscommunication between the doctors involved and in fact Gill had not been medically cleared. Thus the change was submitted to show that he is still on the injured reserve list. My reporting is that all involved know that once Gill is medically cleared he will be released.
Wednesday, April 11, 2018
The Playoff Journey Begins, ECHL Playoff Rosters, Former Allen Players in the Playoffs, Barry the Blogger Matrix Predicts Mountain Division Winner and More
You could sense the anticipation and urgency ramp up yesterday as the Allen Americans prepare for the 2018 Kelly Cup playoffs. You could see and sense it at practice with the drills and system work coach Martinson employed. You don't win 10 championships in 22 years without knowing how to adjust and adapt. Being outshot 96-42 last weekend is all you need to know about whether there were changes in practice. Look for different line combinations and other adjustments when you watch game one against Idaho on Friday night.
- In addition to practice the other activity for the day was a pep rally with fans which was also unique. It is the first pep rally in the six years Steve Martinson has been the coach where the team is opening the playoffs on the road, the reward for finishing third in the division. The boys got a good send off from the fans.
- The night finished for the team when they set their alarms for somewhere around 3:30 am this morning to meet up and head to the airport for the first flight of the day to Boise. They will practice this afternoon at CenturyLink Arena.
- If you didn't have a chance to check out all of the playoff rosters here is the complete list issued by the ECHL. https://www.echl.com/rosters-announced-2018-kelly-cup-playoffs
- If the Allen Americans don't win the Kelly Cup there is a very good chance someone that has played for them will. Here are the former Americans in the playoffs with the first round matchups. The players marked "PEL" are on the playoff eligible list and currently in the AHL. They could be added to the active roster when their AHL assignment is completed.
Adirondack (none)
vs
Worcester (none)
Manchester (Tony Turgeon - PEL)
vs
Reading (Matt Willows, Alex Krushelnyski - PEL)
Florida (Kyle Neuber)
vs
Atlanta (Rick Pinkston - PEL)
South Carolina (Danny Federico)
vs
Orlando (Kale Kerbashian, Chris Crane)
Toledo (Tyler Barnes)
vs
Indy (Jaynen Rissling, Garrett Clarke)
Fort Wayne (Jamie Schaafsma)
vs
Cincinnati (none)
Colorado (Matt Register)
vs
Wichita (Dyson Stevenson, Travis Brown)
Allen
vs
Idaho (Corbin Baldwin)
- Tomorrow I will look at the first round matchup between Allen and Idaho but today I wanted to preview the four Mountain Division teams in the playoffs and compare them in a way that may help determine who is the strongest and weakest team based on regular season results. The "Barry the Blogger Matrix" was spot on last season in predicting the first round winners in the Mountain Division so thought I would give it a try again this season. This matrix is a way to compare teams across a number of statistical categories and then come up with an overall score.
- Below is how the four teams in the Mountain Division playoffs stand in 13 statistical categories. Fairly easy to see the strengths and weaknesses of each team.
Goals Scored (average per game)
3.68 - Colorado
3.39 - Idaho
3.26 - Allen
3.08 -Wichita
Goals Allowed (average per game)
2.61 - Idaho
2.97 - Colorado
3.22 - Allen
3.26 -Wichita
Goal Differential (goals scored minus goals allowed)
+56 - Idaho
+51 - Colorado
+3 - Allen
-13 - Wichita
Shots For (average per game)
36.11 - Idaho
31.33 - Colorado
31.22 - Wichita
30.74 - Allen
Shots Against (average per game)
28.36 - Idaho
31.57 - Colorado
33.61 - Wichita
36.25 - Allen
Shooting Percentage (goals as a percent of total shots)
11.5% - Colorado
10.5% - Allen
9.8% - Wichita
9.1% - Idaho
Power Play Percentage
18.2% - Colorado
17.5% - Idaho
17.1% - Allen
14.3% -Wichita
Penalty Kill Percentage
85.9% - Colorado
84.2% - Idaho
81.6% - Allen
80.1% - Wichita
Power Play Goals Scored
57 - Idaho
54 - Colorado
51 - Allen
35 - Wichita
Plus/Minus
+229 - Idaho
+130 - Colorado
+38 - Allen
+23 - Wichita
Goals Against Average (GAA)
2.53 - Idaho
2.89 - Colorado
3.16 - Allen
3.21 - Wichita
Save Percentage
.912 - Allen
.909 - Idaho
.907 - Colorado
.904 - Wichita
Record Last 10 Games
9-0-1-0 - Idaho
8-2-0-0 - Colorado
4-4-2-0 - Allen
2-6-2-0 - Wichita
- Finally, I tallied up the rank for each team in every category to get an overall score. The lower the score the better. If you finished first in every category you would get a final score of 13. Here are the results:
20 - Idaho (1.54 average)
23 - Colorado (1.77 average)
38 - Allen (2.92 average)
49 -Wichita (3.77 average)
- Based on the stats you would pick Idaho and Colorado as heavy favorites over Allen and Wichita. In the three years I have been doing this matrix the Thunder score (averaging 3.77 per category) is the lowest recorded. The stats would indicate this series could be a sweep but then again stats don't play the game. Idaho is the best of the lot statistically and unless the Allen Americans outperform their regular season stats with their revamped lineup it is hard to see this series going seven games. The matrix gives Idaho a slight edge in the Mountain Division finals but it is really a toss up statistically.
DID YOU KNOW: I have had a lot of questions regarding Riley Gill based on the ECHL transactions on Monday (April 9) that showed he was released by the team under the heading, "CONTRACTED PLAYERS RELEASED (unrestricted free agents as per ECHL Playing Rule 73 (f). That playing rule states that the last day a team may place a player on waivers is Friday, April 6. Any player released following that date is declared an unrestricted free agent and is ineligible to be added to another team's roster for the duration of the regular season or playoffs. The bottom line is Riley Gill is no longer with the Allen Americans and is now an unrestricted free agent.
- In addition to practice the other activity for the day was a pep rally with fans which was also unique. It is the first pep rally in the six years Steve Martinson has been the coach where the team is opening the playoffs on the road, the reward for finishing third in the division. The boys got a good send off from the fans.
- The night finished for the team when they set their alarms for somewhere around 3:30 am this morning to meet up and head to the airport for the first flight of the day to Boise. They will practice this afternoon at CenturyLink Arena.
- If you didn't have a chance to check out all of the playoff rosters here is the complete list issued by the ECHL. https://www.echl.com/rosters-announced-2018-kelly-cup-playoffs
- If the Allen Americans don't win the Kelly Cup there is a very good chance someone that has played for them will. Here are the former Americans in the playoffs with the first round matchups. The players marked "PEL" are on the playoff eligible list and currently in the AHL. They could be added to the active roster when their AHL assignment is completed.
Adirondack (none)
vs
Worcester (none)
Manchester (Tony Turgeon - PEL)
vs
Reading (Matt Willows, Alex Krushelnyski - PEL)
Florida (Kyle Neuber)
vs
Atlanta (Rick Pinkston - PEL)
South Carolina (Danny Federico)
vs
Orlando (Kale Kerbashian, Chris Crane)
Toledo (Tyler Barnes)
vs
Indy (Jaynen Rissling, Garrett Clarke)
Fort Wayne (Jamie Schaafsma)
vs
Cincinnati (none)
Colorado (Matt Register)
vs
Wichita (Dyson Stevenson, Travis Brown)
Allen
vs
Idaho (Corbin Baldwin)
- Tomorrow I will look at the first round matchup between Allen and Idaho but today I wanted to preview the four Mountain Division teams in the playoffs and compare them in a way that may help determine who is the strongest and weakest team based on regular season results. The "Barry the Blogger Matrix" was spot on last season in predicting the first round winners in the Mountain Division so thought I would give it a try again this season. This matrix is a way to compare teams across a number of statistical categories and then come up with an overall score.
- Below is how the four teams in the Mountain Division playoffs stand in 13 statistical categories. Fairly easy to see the strengths and weaknesses of each team.
Goals Scored (average per game)
3.68 - Colorado
3.39 - Idaho
3.26 - Allen
3.08 -Wichita
Goals Allowed (average per game)
2.61 - Idaho
2.97 - Colorado
3.22 - Allen
3.26 -Wichita
Goal Differential (goals scored minus goals allowed)
+56 - Idaho
+51 - Colorado
+3 - Allen
-13 - Wichita
Shots For (average per game)
36.11 - Idaho
31.33 - Colorado
31.22 - Wichita
30.74 - Allen
Shots Against (average per game)
28.36 - Idaho
31.57 - Colorado
33.61 - Wichita
36.25 - Allen
Shooting Percentage (goals as a percent of total shots)
11.5% - Colorado
10.5% - Allen
9.8% - Wichita
9.1% - Idaho
Power Play Percentage
18.2% - Colorado
17.5% - Idaho
17.1% - Allen
14.3% -Wichita
Penalty Kill Percentage
85.9% - Colorado
84.2% - Idaho
81.6% - Allen
80.1% - Wichita
Power Play Goals Scored
57 - Idaho
54 - Colorado
51 - Allen
35 - Wichita
Plus/Minus
+229 - Idaho
+130 - Colorado
+38 - Allen
+23 - Wichita
Goals Against Average (GAA)
2.53 - Idaho
2.89 - Colorado
3.16 - Allen
3.21 - Wichita
Save Percentage
.912 - Allen
.909 - Idaho
.907 - Colorado
.904 - Wichita
Record Last 10 Games
9-0-1-0 - Idaho
8-2-0-0 - Colorado
4-4-2-0 - Allen
2-6-2-0 - Wichita
- Finally, I tallied up the rank for each team in every category to get an overall score. The lower the score the better. If you finished first in every category you would get a final score of 13. Here are the results:
20 - Idaho (1.54 average)
23 - Colorado (1.77 average)
38 - Allen (2.92 average)
49 -Wichita (3.77 average)
- Based on the stats you would pick Idaho and Colorado as heavy favorites over Allen and Wichita. In the three years I have been doing this matrix the Thunder score (averaging 3.77 per category) is the lowest recorded. The stats would indicate this series could be a sweep but then again stats don't play the game. Idaho is the best of the lot statistically and unless the Allen Americans outperform their regular season stats with their revamped lineup it is hard to see this series going seven games. The matrix gives Idaho a slight edge in the Mountain Division finals but it is really a toss up statistically.
DID YOU KNOW: I have had a lot of questions regarding Riley Gill based on the ECHL transactions on Monday (April 9) that showed he was released by the team under the heading, "CONTRACTED PLAYERS RELEASED (unrestricted free agents as per ECHL Playing Rule 73 (f). That playing rule states that the last day a team may place a player on waivers is Friday, April 6. Any player released following that date is declared an unrestricted free agent and is ineligible to be added to another team's roster for the duration of the regular season or playoffs. The bottom line is Riley Gill is no longer with the Allen Americans and is now an unrestricted free agent.
Tuesday, April 10, 2018
Allen's Playoff Roster, Thanksgiving Prediction on Playoff Teams Revisited, Home vs Road Playoff Record and Spencer Asuchak's Career Playoff Stats
The Allen Americans released their playoff roster last night. The official ECHL release for all 27 ECHL teams will be at some point early this afternoon. Individual teams can issue their roster prior to the ECHL press release. Allen was one of the teams that chose to release their playoff roster early. Here it is:
Forwards (11)
Spencer Asuchak
Jared Bethune
J.C. Campagna
Alex Carrier
Matt Foget
Alex Guptill
Tristan King
Bryan Moore
Zach Pochiro
Braylon Shmyr
Casey Pierro-Zabotel
Defensemen (8)
Gordie Ballhorn
Joel Chouinard
Mike Gunn
Miles Liberati
David Makowski
Eric Roy
Dalton Thrower
Josh Thrower
Goalies (2)
Jeremy Brodeur
Jake Paterson
Playoff Eligible Players (5)
Olivier Archambault
Vincent Arseneau
Colby McAuley
Alex Schoenborn
Stephon Williams
- The most important thing to note is 21 players have been named to the roster. Coach Martinson has only two slots remaining for the five players on the "playoff eligible list" which means after he names those two players (once they become available) the roster will be frozen. My bet is those two roster spots will go the Arseneau and McAuley.
- Many times in past, players that were in Allen all season had to be left of the playoff roster because there weren't enough spots. Not the case this season as everyone made the playoff roster.
- The Kelly Cup playoffs will get started on Thursday night with one game (Orlando at South Carolina). Last Thanksgiving I made predictions on which teams would make the playoffs. The premise, based on past history, was that 75% - 80% of the playoff teams are already decided by Thanksgiving even though only 20% of the season is complete. When I made the predictions I said I would revisit them and here are the results. To start with here are the 16 teams in the 2018 Kelly Cup playoffs.
Here are my predictions from November 24, 2017 followed by the results:
North Division - This is the toughest division to predict because only six points separate first and last place. I am going with Wheeling, Reading, Adirondack and Brampton. Manchester and Worcester miss the playoffs.
RESULTS - I said this was the toughest division and only two of four predictions were correct. Don't know how I picked Brampton over Manchester even though they were tied in points at Thanksgiving. Congrats to Worcester who made the playoffs in their inaugural season.
South Division - This one is easy and you can take it to the bank based on history. Florida, South Carolina, Greenville and Atlanta are in. Orlando, Jacksonville and Norfolk can already make tee times and plan vacations.
RESULTS: Got three out of four correct and obviously it wasn't easy and if you took it to the bank you lost. Greenville won nine of 10 games just before Thanksgiving and had a big lead on Orlando but a colossal collapse by the Swamp Rabbits allowed Orlando to pass them. Greenville lost 18 of their last 22 games.
Central Division - Toledo, Kansas City, Cincinnati and Fort Wayne make the playoffs. Kalamazoo, Quad City and Indy stay home.
RESULTS: Got three of four correct and the one I missed (Kansas City) was in the playoff race till the last weekend of the season. Congrats to Indy who lost 10 of their first 12 games and came from last place at Thanksgiving to earn a playoff spot with a win on the last day of the season. Indy had a record of 9-2-3-0 the last there weeks of the season.
Mountain Division - Wichita, Colorado, Idaho and Allen are in while Tulsa, Utah and Rapid City miss the playoffs.
RESULTS: Nailed this one with all four team making the playoffs. Tulsa battled to the end and made it close but lost their last four games.
The final results show 12 of 16 (75%) playoff teams were known at Thanksgiving. All you have to do next season is check out the standings while chowing down on Thanksgiving turkey and if your team is in fourth place or higher in the division, make plans for the playoffs.
- Allen will not have home ice advanatge throughout the playoffs. Allen has won many game sevens at home in the past but if you look at home and away playoff records since the Americans joined the ECHL, home ice has not been much of an advantage. Allen is 20-12 at home and 18-10 on the road. Last season in the playoffs the Americans were 1-4 at home and 5-1 on the road.
DID YOU KNOW: Spencer Asuchak will have sole possession of first place on the all-time post season games played list after game one of the series with Idaho. He is currently tied with Greger Hanson at 76 games. Spencer will be moving up the all-time post season list in several categories.
Points - Spencer is #4 all-time in post season points (49) and needs four points to pass Bruce Graham for third place.
Goals - Spencer is #4 all-time in post season goals (23) and could pass #3 Bruce Graham (24) and #2 Gary Steffes (29).
Assists - Spencer is #6 all-time in post season assists (26) but could vault passed Tyler Ludwig, Jamie Schaafsma, and Bruce Graham who are all tied for third place with 28.
Penalty Minutes - Nobody to pass on the all-time post season penalty minute list. Spencer is #1 with 124 minutes. Vincent Arseneau is #2 with 104 penalty minutes.
Forwards (11)
Spencer Asuchak
Jared Bethune
J.C. Campagna
Alex Carrier
Matt Foget
Alex Guptill
Tristan King
Bryan Moore
Zach Pochiro
Braylon Shmyr
Casey Pierro-Zabotel
Defensemen (8)
Gordie Ballhorn
Joel Chouinard
Mike Gunn
Miles Liberati
David Makowski
Eric Roy
Dalton Thrower
Josh Thrower
Goalies (2)
Jeremy Brodeur
Jake Paterson
Playoff Eligible Players (5)
Olivier Archambault
Vincent Arseneau
Colby McAuley
Alex Schoenborn
Stephon Williams
- The most important thing to note is 21 players have been named to the roster. Coach Martinson has only two slots remaining for the five players on the "playoff eligible list" which means after he names those two players (once they become available) the roster will be frozen. My bet is those two roster spots will go the Arseneau and McAuley.
- Many times in past, players that were in Allen all season had to be left of the playoff roster because there weren't enough spots. Not the case this season as everyone made the playoff roster.
- The Kelly Cup playoffs will get started on Thursday night with one game (Orlando at South Carolina). Last Thanksgiving I made predictions on which teams would make the playoffs. The premise, based on past history, was that 75% - 80% of the playoff teams are already decided by Thanksgiving even though only 20% of the season is complete. When I made the predictions I said I would revisit them and here are the results. To start with here are the 16 teams in the 2018 Kelly Cup playoffs.
Here are my predictions from November 24, 2017 followed by the results:
North Division - This is the toughest division to predict because only six points separate first and last place. I am going with Wheeling, Reading, Adirondack and Brampton. Manchester and Worcester miss the playoffs.
RESULTS - I said this was the toughest division and only two of four predictions were correct. Don't know how I picked Brampton over Manchester even though they were tied in points at Thanksgiving. Congrats to Worcester who made the playoffs in their inaugural season.
South Division - This one is easy and you can take it to the bank based on history. Florida, South Carolina, Greenville and Atlanta are in. Orlando, Jacksonville and Norfolk can already make tee times and plan vacations.
RESULTS: Got three out of four correct and obviously it wasn't easy and if you took it to the bank you lost. Greenville won nine of 10 games just before Thanksgiving and had a big lead on Orlando but a colossal collapse by the Swamp Rabbits allowed Orlando to pass them. Greenville lost 18 of their last 22 games.
Central Division - Toledo, Kansas City, Cincinnati and Fort Wayne make the playoffs. Kalamazoo, Quad City and Indy stay home.
RESULTS: Got three of four correct and the one I missed (Kansas City) was in the playoff race till the last weekend of the season. Congrats to Indy who lost 10 of their first 12 games and came from last place at Thanksgiving to earn a playoff spot with a win on the last day of the season. Indy had a record of 9-2-3-0 the last there weeks of the season.
Mountain Division - Wichita, Colorado, Idaho and Allen are in while Tulsa, Utah and Rapid City miss the playoffs.
RESULTS: Nailed this one with all four team making the playoffs. Tulsa battled to the end and made it close but lost their last four games.
The final results show 12 of 16 (75%) playoff teams were known at Thanksgiving. All you have to do next season is check out the standings while chowing down on Thanksgiving turkey and if your team is in fourth place or higher in the division, make plans for the playoffs.
- Allen will not have home ice advanatge throughout the playoffs. Allen has won many game sevens at home in the past but if you look at home and away playoff records since the Americans joined the ECHL, home ice has not been much of an advantage. Allen is 20-12 at home and 18-10 on the road. Last season in the playoffs the Americans were 1-4 at home and 5-1 on the road.
DID YOU KNOW: Spencer Asuchak will have sole possession of first place on the all-time post season games played list after game one of the series with Idaho. He is currently tied with Greger Hanson at 76 games. Spencer will be moving up the all-time post season list in several categories.
Points - Spencer is #4 all-time in post season points (49) and needs four points to pass Bruce Graham for third place.
Goals - Spencer is #4 all-time in post season goals (23) and could pass #3 Bruce Graham (24) and #2 Gary Steffes (29).
Assists - Spencer is #6 all-time in post season assists (26) but could vault passed Tyler Ludwig, Jamie Schaafsma, and Bruce Graham who are all tied for third place with 28.
Penalty Minutes - Nobody to pass on the all-time post season penalty minute list. Spencer is #1 with 124 minutes. Vincent Arseneau is #2 with 104 penalty minutes.
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