Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Practice Update, Getaway Day, Playoff Update, Player and Fan Superstitions & More

There is always a risk in trying to make assumptions about a hockey team based solely on watching practice but being a blogger it is a luxury I have. Here is what I would say after watching practice yesterday.


- There was no panic, no sense the team had to do any more than they are capable of doing. Practice was spent fixing mistakes that took place in the first two games. Very professional with everyone engaged but not too serious. This is a team that is confident and truly believes they will win on Wednesday.


- I also think there is a certain amount of anger among the players in how the team has performed the first two games. As one player said to me after practice, an angry and pissed off team has been trouble for the opponent in the past and this is an angry and pissed off team.


- Everyone participated in practice but it was clear to me there are players that are really pushing themselves to practice. All players are dealing with injuries at this time of year but some may have to be smart enough to sit out. It is an issue I am sure coach Martinson considers in deciding who will be in the lineup on Wednesday night. He has said he would like to play everyone on the roster and there are good reasons to have everyone in the lineup but four players will not play in game three. Not an easy decision to make.


- The team will have a very light practice today before they head to Colorado. It is great to see the team flying rather than hopping on Big Red for 14 hours. Thanks Jack Gulati.


OTHER COMMENTS

- There will be a complete game preview tomorrow but one statistic that is worth noting is Allen's scoring by period in the playoffs. The Americans have been outscored in the first period 7-5 and the second period 10-1. They have outscored their opponents in the third period 15-2. A better start going forward will be imperative.


- There were two ECHL playoff games last night and the lower seeded team took a 2-1 lead in both series. Manchester shutout Brampton 4-0 and South Carolina beat Florida 1-0 in double overtime. It was the second double overtime game in the series and South Carolina came out on top in both games. There is just one game scheduled tonight with Brampton at Manchester.


- Superstitions are certainly not rational from a scientific point of view but they are definitely part of sports for many players and fans. When I write player profiles and ask whether a player has any superstitions most will quickly say no. But if you ask about their game day routines you find out most are superstitious and don't like it if the routine is upset. It may be nap time, the color of tape on their stick, the order they put on their skates, pregame meal, the order they go on or off the ice, where they tap their sticks or how many times. Then there are the obvious ones like Josh Brittian rubbing his lucky stone before the game or in 2015 when Chad Costello wore a jersey with the word "Americans" spelled incorrectly because it was good luck. Here is a video from a year ago where Chad explained why he wore the "Amercans" jersey in 2015.




- Coach Martinson is the least superstitious person you will find. He sees it as nonsense that creates unnecessary issues you have to deal with. He is more of an advocate of looking at percentages and empirical evidence when assessing losses or poor performance. Martinson has been known to put an open ladder and broken mirror in front of superstitious players stall (like Spencer Asuchak).


- Fans are even more irrational when it comes to superstitions. I here fans talk about going to the restroom when the team is behind because the team scored once when they weren't in their seat, others who think a specific stuffed toy brings victory, sitting in a unique place in the rink brings goals, wearing a specific jersey or other clothing brings victory. Some fans know the won-lost record of every jersey they own. Some fans invite certain guests to join them for good luck or avoid asking certain friends to a game because they are bad luck.


- Here is a video on some of the craziest superstitions in sports.




DID YOU KNOW: In the history of the ECHL 11 goalies have scored goals but did you know in a game between Augusta and Greenville on December 12, 2003, Augusta goalie Jason Saal had a record three assists.  

Monday, May 1, 2017

Will Allen Win or Lose, Another is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty Musing, Playoff Update & Barracuda Update

The Allen Americans return to practice this morning to prepare for three games this week (Wednesday, Thursday, Sunday) in what could be the end of the season or could be the beginning of another amazing comeback.


- I played sports in high school and on some pretty competitive teams in amateur sports (volleyball & softball) as an adult. My main softball team was sponsored by a liquor store (Normandale Liquor) but ironically I also played for a team that sold religious books (Successful Living). Tournaments most every weekend in the summer (after all this was Minnesota) from 16 teams up to the granddaddy of them all, the Bloomington Firemen's Tournament with 128 teams. Normandale Liquor won the Firemen's tournament a couple of times. I share this story to make the point that when you are on successful teams at any level your team has the confidence you can comeback and win a specific game after being behind or win a big tournament after coming through the losers bracket and beating the winners bracket team twice. There is just something about the old adage that success breeds success and when you have done it before you know you can do it again.


- Even with great success there are some times, some years, some tournaments when doubt creeps in and you know the other team is better and is probably going to win. I am not trying to compare myself to professional athletes but as I watched numerous NHL playoff games this weekend I kept thinking about the situation the Allen Americans find themselves in trailing 2-0 and heading to Colorado for three games. I know the players will say all the right things publicly but you do wonder if any doubt has crept into their private internal thoughts about this series with Colorado.


- I know my mind has been racing between optimism and pessimism since the 5-2 loss on Saturday. Have to admit my thoughts have landed more on the glass half empty side but I am just a fan. Here are some of the random thoughts I have had pulling me in both directions. Maybe these coincide with your thoughts or maybe you have others you can share.

Allen is a four time champion and has won 15 straight playoff series.  They have the talent to win and always finds a way. Relax, if they win on Wednesday they are right back in the series.

All good things must come to an end and admit it, Colorado is just the better team.

Allen has the best coach in the ECHL in Steve Martinson who has 10 championships and the best goalie in the history of the ECHL playoffs in Riley Gill who has won three of the last four Kelly Cups. Experience will come through in the end.

Colorado has a rookie coach and a rookie goalie but the team is loose, having fun, full of confidence and has a lot of trust in each other. That is a winning combination.

Colorado has four players that spent most of the season playing for their AHL affiliate (San Antonio). Six players on the Eagles roster spent time in San Antonio for a total of 234 games. Allen has four players on the playoff roster who played for their AHL affiliate (San Jose Barracuda) and the total games played was only 15.

In 2015 Allen was shutout 5-0 in game four by Ontario and fell behind in the series 3-1. They won three straight games to win that series. Last season Allen looked overmatched in losing game five to Idaho 7-1 and fell behind in the series 3-2. They won the final two games of the series to advance. This is just another series that starts out bad and will end up good.

Over the last three months of the season Allen had a home record of 17-2-2 but all 21 games were against teams that did not make the playoffs. Allen is 1-3 at home in the playoffs and has lost three straight. Allen was not as good at the end of the season as their record reflected.

Have trust in the Allen Americans. They have responded before and they will respond again.

Colorado has taken their play to another level and the Americans have not responded and matched that level of play.

Allen has to play better in Colorado. They have a 30% power play that is at 10% in this series. They have scored a total of three goals in two games. This is a team that averages four goals a game. You can not hold this skilled team to one or two goals per game.

Colorado has won five straight playoff games and has averaged 5.00 goals per game in those five games. Even if Allen can score more they can't keep the Eagles from scoring.

Allen will get a lift with Bryan Moore back in the lineup for game three. He has been the top goal scorer for Allen with eight goals in his last seven games.

Allen misses Derek Mathers in this series. The Eagles have been taking liberties with Allen's skill players with very little response from the Americans. Colorado will play much tougher at home. Allen seems to be the softer team in this series.

Allen no longer has the lion as represented by Derek Mathers but they have a pack of wolves and if the Eagles want to try to make the games in Colorado a contest of physicality the Americans will step up.  

Based on historical data over all major sports with 100's of seven game series the odds don't look good for Allen. A team with a 2-0 lead while starting the series on the road wins the series about 80% of the time. Allen is toast.

If you do what is necessary all the odds are in your favor.


So there is my list. Some of the thoughts that have been going through my mind the last couple of days. Is the glass half full or half empty? Am I an optimist, pessimists or realist? We will soon find out.

Is the glass half full or half empty?




OTHER COMMENTS

- Just like the Allen Americans the Fort Wayne Komets are trailing 2-0 in their series but the two losses came on the road to Toledo. Certainly not as dire a situation as the Americans find themselves in but a concern nonetheless. Here is a story written by Justin Cohn of the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette where former Allen captain, Jamie Schaafsma, talks about their situation. Much of what Jamie has to say also applies to Allen as they head to Colorado. Here is a link to the story: http://www.journalgazette.net/blog/ice-chips/20170430/on-komets-captain-for-the-fans


- There are two ECHL playoff games on tap tonight. Brampton is at Manchester and Florida is at South Carolina. Both series are tied 1-1.


- Here is the updated bracket:



- The San Jose Barracuda lost 5-3 in Stockton yesterday so that best of five series will go to a winner take all fifth game in San Jose on Tuesday night. San Jose was the top seed in the Western Conference and it would be a huge upset if they lose this series to Stockton. If you are interested here is the game recap from the Stockton Heat: http://stocktonheat.com/news/heat-force-game-5-with-three-unanswered-goals-in-third/




DID YOU KNOW: Coach Martinson said after the loss on Saturday and going behind in the series 2-0, "We do not want to go down 3-0 as that is something you don't want to be looking at." He sure knows what he is talking about. Did you know if you look at seven game series across all major professional sports (MLB, NBA, NHL) when a team gets ahead 3-0 their odds of winning the series is 98.5%. According the the website Who Wins the all-time record over all sports in seven game series when one team takes a 3-0 lead is 335-5. I would say the game on Wednesday is a must win for Allen. 

  



 
    

Sunday, April 30, 2017

Allen Loses 5-2, Trail 2-0 as Series Heads to Colorado, Martinson Comments, Playoff Update, Look at Affliate Help

The Allen Americans have had numerous comebacks in the Steve Martinson era on their way to four straight championships including trailing Ontario 3-1 in the Western Conference finals in 2015. However, after losing to the Colorado Eagles 5-2 last night at the Allen Event Center (AEC) before a crowd of 4882 the Americans are in uncharted territory. They have never lost the first two games of a playoff series.


- It was a similar script between the loss last night and the loss in game one. Allen gave up the first goal just 4:46 into the game. The Americans  started the game with a lot of energy and had several chances to take the early lead but were stopped by the Eagles rookie goaltender Lukas Hafner. I mention as a key to every game the first goal is so important and that is especially true in this series. For the record Allen and Colorado now have a record this season when scoring first of 81-4-2-2.


- Even more perplexing than giving up the first goal of the game is Allen's lack of success on special teams. They came into this series with a distinct advantage with a 30% success rate on the power play facing a Colorado penalty kill that struggled in the first round at only 73.7%. The game plan was to make sure there were plenty of power play opportunities and Allen would come out on top. The results in the first two games prove that game plan didn't work. The Americans were 0-4 last night on the power play and are 1-10 (10%) over the first two games. Meanwhile the Eagles scored power play goals in both games and are 2-9 (22.2%).


- The goal scorers for Allen were Gary Steffes (1) and Josh Brittain (2). In my opinion Josh Brittain was the best player on the ice for Allen. He not only had a goal but played Allen Americans style hard nosed hockey all night. If you want to look at all of the goals (except the empty net goal) the highlights are posted at ECHL Rewind. Focusing on the defensive breakdowns that created the goal scoring opportunities might be as instructive as the goals themselves. Here is the link to ECHL Rewind: http://www.echl.com/


- The task gets tougher for the Americans as they now head to Colorado for the next three games trailing 2-0 in the series. Anyone that thinks this series is over doesn't know Steve Martinson. At his post game press conference he was realistic but resolute that his team has the talent to win and will be focused on just one thing and that is winning game three.


- Here is the game recap issued by the Allen Americans: https://allenamericans.com/americans-in-huge-hole-after-game-2-loss-to-colorado/


- If you want a very detailed recap of the game check out this story from Cris Tiller of the Loveland Reporter-Herald which is very well done. http://www.reporterherald.com/sports/ci_30955542/colorado-eagles-return-home-commanding-2-0-series



COACHES CORNER

- It is always interesting to listen to coach Martinson's pregame interview with Tom Manning. Here is what Martinson had to say before the game last night.



Here are Steve Martinson's post game comments:

- This obviously is not where we wanted to be. We now have to go into Colorado and win. In order to do that we are going to have to eliminate some of our mistakes. We have to go into Colorado and bring our best game. It is frustrating to be in this position but we have won all year on the road.

- Our first line has to score more even strength. We will get Bryan Moore back in the lineup in Colorado and that will gives us additional speed and our best goal scorer over the last 10 games. I am confident we can win the next game and turn this series around.

- It is not the position we want to be in and it is a little frustrating being down 2-0 at home. But we can go into their place and win. I said last night it is not a best of one and tonight I will say it is not a best of two. We do not want to go down 3-0 as that is something you don't want to be looking at.

- I thought we had a good start tonight but we need to do a better job finishing. We had our chances and it is playoff time so we have to capitalize on those chances.

- Our power play didn't get much done again tonight. I thought the first couple of power plays we were trying to pass the puck into the net rather than shooting it. We need to make better decisions on the power play. We took some shots when there was no net support but their goalie also made some pretty big saves.

- Their four on four goal (second goal) was painful. We turned the puck over and then didn't defend the play well. Belzile is killing us with two goals tonight and the game winner last night. We have to counter with our top guys scoring goals.

- We have been down by two games before and came back. We are the defending champions and we are going to have to play better if we want to get back in this series. Colorado won 17 games straight this season so they know how to win. They are not going to give up anything easy. So we have to go into their place and fight tooth and nail for the win. We have the guys that can do it but they have to do it. Our guys have to step up and makes plays otherwise the season isn't going to be much longer. Don't count us out yet!


OTHER COMMENTS


- In the other ECHL games last night Florida beat South Carolina 5-2 to even the series at one game apiece. The next three games are in South Carolina. Manchester beat Brampton 4-3 in overtime to even that series 1-1. They now head to Manchester for the next three games. Toledo beat Fort Wayne in overtime to take a 2-0 lead in that series. The next two games will be in Fort Wayne.


- Allen has had a lot of help over the years by getting players from their AHL affiliate for the playoffs. It is typically a big advantage when your NHL and AHL affiliates don't make the playoffs. That is the case this season with the Eagles as both their NHL affiliate (Colorado Avalanche) and AHL affiliate (San Antonio Rampage) missed the playoffs. Allen on the other hand saw both the San Jose Sharks and Barracuda make the playoffs. Colorado's playoff roster has five players that had significant time with their AHL affiliate (San Antonio) this season. Here is the list with regular season games in San Antonio and Colorado.

Sergei Boikov - 63 games San Antonio, 7 games Colorado
Julien Nantel - 59 games San Antonio, 5 games Colorado
Mason Geertson - 36 games San Antonio, 9 games Colorado
Alex Belzile - 45 games San Antonio, 17 games Colorado
Shawn St-Amant - 28 games San Antonio, 35 games Colorado

If you compare this to Allen, they have four players on the playoff roster that spent time with their AHL affiliate, the San Jose Barracuda but the total games played by the fours players was just 15. Mike Brodzinski (9), Harrison Ruopp (3), Bryan Moore (2) and Travis Brown (1). To be fair Allen had other players, most notably Greger Hanson (12 games) who played for non-affiliated AHL teams. Two late season additions for Allen (Alex Krushelnyski & Tyler Barnes) spent significant time in the AHL this season. Alex played 43 games in Binghamton and Tyler 25 games in Rockford.

Colorado has clearly been helped by the players assigned by their AHL affiliate. Most notably Alex Belzile who is the ECHL playoff leader in both goals (8) and points (14). Getting all of these players assigned by San Antonio could carry the Eagles a long way in the playoffs, just has affiliate help has for Allen in the past.


DID YOU KNOW: How big of a hole has the Allen Americans dug for themselves. If you look at all seven game series in NHL history where a team loses the first two games at home here are the odds. The odds say Colorado has a 52.9% chance of winning game three and a 79.3% chance of winning the series. The good news is under Steve Martinson Allen has a record of 9-6 in game three. However, in the CHL (2013 & 2014) Allen was 5-1 but since joining the ECHL the game three record is 4-5. 



Saturday, April 29, 2017

Eagles Beat Americans 4-1, Martinson Comments, Game Two Preview, Playoff Update & Did You Know

It wasn't a surprise the Allen Americans lost game one of their Mountain Division finals to the Colorado Eagles last night by a score of 4-1 before a crowd of 4451 at the Allen Event Center (AEC) but it certainly was disappointing. After all, the Americans have won 15 straight playoff series under coach Martinson but have a losing record in opening games. After last night Allen's game one record is 7-9.


- The good news is the Americans don't have to wait long to do something about the poor performance last night as they will be back at the AEC for game two tonight at 7:05 pm. More good news is Allen has been dominate in game two over the years with a record under Steve Martinson of 11-4.


- When Colorado scored the first goal of the game last night at the 3:30 mark of the first period the die was pretty much cast. Allen and Colorado are both undefeated in the playoffs when scoring first and if you combine their playoff and regular season scoring first record it now stands at 80-4-2-2. Both of these teams are deadly when they score first.


- The back breaker for the Americans came midway through the second period when they were trailing 3-1. Even with a long (73 second) five-on-three power play they never even came close to scoring.  The power play was supposed to be the secret weapon in this game with the Americans boasting a first round power play percentage of 30% while the Eagles penalty kill was a paltry 73.7% in the first round. Allen was 1-6 on the power play but that was matched by Colorado who ended up 1-5.


- Greger Hanson scored the lone goal for Allen. It was his third of the playoffs which ties him for the team lead with Wade MacLeod and Joel Chouinard. Hanson is also the team leader in points with eight. The video highlights are posted on ECHL Rewind. http://www.echl.com/


- Here is the Allen Americans game recap press release: https://allenamericans.com/americans-fall-to-colorado-in-game-1/


- Here is a game recap from the Eagles' hometown paper which captures the essence of how much Colorado took it to the Americans. It also includes several quotes from Colorado coach Aaron Schneekloth. http://www.reporterherald.com/ci_30954061/colorado-eagles-play-dynamic-game-1-cruise-past


COACHES CORNER

- It is always interesting to listen to coach Martinson's pregame interview with Tom Manning after the game. Being "ready to go" was the first point Martinson made and you will see from his post game comments that didn't happen.



Here are Steve Martinson's post game comments:

- Obviously this was not the start we wanted. We didn't defend very hard on their goals. They weren't great plays or great shots but they ended up in the net. We have to defend harder and maybe I will put more speed in the lineup tomorrow. I thought at times their forwards looked faster than us.

 - The penalty kill was really bad on the goal against. Twice we had the opportunity to kill the play and we didn't pressure the puck. Then they throw a wrist shot at the net and we didn't front it or block it and it ends up in the net.

- On the last goal we got beat one player after another because guys aren't moving their feet. We just did not play hard enough to win. We need to get more out of our best players.

- On the power plays we shot a lot of pucks right into the middle of the goalie's chest. The five-on-three was painful. We shot the first one timer into his chest and I think fanned on the second one. That power play was critical because we were down 3-1 and had a chance to get back in the game. We just didn't execute that well when we had our chances.

- I will look at putting Harrison Ruopp in the lineup tomorrow night as he will give us a little more bite. I will also look at putting Tanner Eberle in the lineup. He gives us more speed and is somebody that will go in and finish his checks.

- We don't need to make adjustments to what we are doing. We lost tonight because we didn't move very hard and we didn't defend hard. If you don't defend and don't move your feet and don't have some urgency you don't win at this time of year. We had several point blank shots with an open net and failed to score. If you are not burying your chances you better be very stingy defensively and we weren't.

- We have players that can play better than they did tonight. It is not a best of one, it is a best of seven. We gave away home ice but we have done that before. Hopefully everyone understands what we have to do Saturday night and that is to play harder, battle harder and be tougher to play against. They are all cliches but that is what we have to do.


GAME TWO PREVIEW

- It sounds like a broken record but for Allen to be successful in game two tonight they need a better start and they must win the special teams battle. Scoring the first goal of the game is an almost must for the Americans and they have to win the first period even if they don't score first. Allen needs to take advanatge of what has been better special teams play in the playoffs. Allen has a better power play than Colorado (26.9% vs 25%) and the Americans have also been the better team on the penalty kill (90.6% vs 76%).


- During the regular season Allen had the the best plus/minus in the ECHL at +334 while Colorado was only +148. In the playoffs Allen is only +5 while Colorado is leading all playoff teams with +36.


- The officiating crew tonight will be exactly the same as Friday night. The referees will be Kenny Anderson (#16) and Stephen Reneau (#17) and the linesmen will be Lucas Bisbee (#72) and Aaron Schacht (#31).



OTHER COMMENTS

- In other ECHL action last night it took 99 minutes but South Carolina beat Florida 3-2 in double overtime and the Toledo Walleye beat Fort Wayne 2-1. All four division finals series will be in action tonight. After game one of each series the home teams have won twice (Brampton & Toledo) and lost twice (Allen & Florida).


- It was good news for Allen's AHL affiliate as the Barracuda beat Stockton 5-3 last night in Stockton to take a 2-1 lead in that best of five series. Game four is in Stockton Sunday afternoon. With the San Jose Sharks losing in the opening round of the NHL playoffs they sent down a couple of young forwards (Timo Meier & Marcus Sorenson) to the Barracuda that will really help in the pursuit of the Calder Cup. Here is a great story about how these young players will play a major role in the Barracuda's playoff run. The story also has some honest quotes from coach Roy Sommer.  http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/04/28/sharks-expect-meier-sorensen-labanc-to-play-key-roles-in-barracudas-playoff-run/



DID YOU KNOW: 

- Chad Costello was a teammate of Colorado coach Aaron Schneekloth when Costello won the ECHL MVP award in 2012 playing for the Eagles. Chad had 76 points in just 47 games that season. Schneekloth was a high scoring defenseman who was the third leading scorer on that team with 20 goals and 62 points. 

- Allen goalie Riley Gill and Colorado goalie Lukas Hafner both played for the Western Michigan University (WMU) Broncos. Riley was at WMU from 2006-10 and Lucas was there from 2012-16. Gill was a four year starter, played in 111 games and had a save percentage of .914. Hafner was a three year starter, played in 85 games and had a save percentage of .917. It will be fun to watch these two WMU alumni in this series. The rookie got the best of the veteran last night but the series has just begun.


Friday, April 28, 2017

Allen vs Colorado Game Preview, Playoff Update, Allen Champions on All Division Finals Teams

It seems like forever since the Allen Americans finished their first round series against the Utah Grizzlies even though it was just last Saturday. I said earlier this week it was the calm before the storm and the storm arrives tonight. Game one of what should be one of the best series in the entire ECHL Kelly Cup playoffs is tonight as the Americans take on the Colorado Eagles at the Allen Event Center (7:05 pm CDT).


- The lineup for Allen tonight is still uncertain other than Bryan Moore will be out as he still has two games to serve on his four game suspension from the Utah series. Zach Hall missed the last game against Utah, Harrison Ruopp missed the last three games against Utah and Tanner Eberle did not play at all against Utah. Contrary to my reporting earlier in the week that Tanner Eberle would miss the first two games against Colorado it is possible he could be cleared to play tonight.


- The similarities between Allen and Colorado are undeniable as they are both tough, physical, gritty teams with tons of skill and lots of depth. They both have the abilty to play any style necessary to be successful and they both have three lines capable of scoring. As a refresher here is a comparison between the Americans and Eagles. The first number is the regular season stat while the number in parentheses is the stat from the first round of the playoffs in which Allen won 4-1 over Utah and Colorado won 4-1 over Idaho.


Goals Scored (average per game)         
4.08 - Allen            (3.60)
3.68 - Colorado      (4.00)

Goals Allowed (average per game)
2.82 - Allen            (2.00)
2.86 - Colorado      (3.00)

Shots For (average per game)
32.94 - Colorado      (29.60)
31.44 - Allen            (32.40)

Shots Against (average per game)
29.75 - Colorado      (25.80)
34.93 - Allen            (28.20)

Shooting Percentage (goals as a percent of total shots)
12.9% - Allen            (11.1%)
11.1% - Colorado      (13.5%)

Power Play Percentage
24.8% - Colorado      (26.3%)
24.4% - Allen            (30.0%)

Penalty Kill Percentage
84.4% - Allen            (92.6%)
83.4% - Colorado      (73.7%)

Plus/Minus
+334 - Allen            (+20)
+148 - Colorado      (+21)

Goals Against Average (GAA)
2.76 - Allen            (2.00)
2.80 - Colorado      (2.98)

Save Percentage
.920 - Allen            (.929)
.905 - Colorado      (.884)



- If you look at the stats above it is obvious how even these teams were during the regular season. They were clearly the best two teams in the Mountain Division and both had great seasons. Colorado didn't lose a game between January 25 and March 3 and won 17 games straight which is the second longest winning streak in ECHL history. Allen was able to overcome Colorado in the standings by finishing the season on a streak of 15-0-1-0. The Americans were seven points behind Colorado with eight games remaining. The most remarkable thing about Allen's success is they were 8-11 and in last place in the division at the end of November but from that point on finished the season going 41-6-4-2.


- If you look at the playoff stats above (in parentheses) something does stand out and that is related to the goalie play. Allen has by any measure the best playoff goalie in the history of the league in Riley Gill. He led the ECHL in save percentage during the regular season (.920) and improved to .929 in the first round of the playoffs. The Eagles #1 goalie, Clarke Saunders, is currently on loan to the San Jose Barracuda (AHL).  Goalie Luke Hafner won four straight games against Idaho after Kent Simpson played in game one and lost. The Eagles save percentage during the regular season was .905 but in the first round of the playoffs fell to .884.


- Goalie play could also explain the difference in the penalty kill percentages between Allen and Colorado. The saying goes your best penalty killer is usually your goalie. Allen's penalty kill percentage during the regular season was 84.4% but the Gill playoff effect had it at 92.6% against Utah. Colorado's penalty kill during the regular season was 83.4% but in the playoffs against Idaho fell to 73.7%. If there are a lot of penalties in the game tonight which result in power play opportunities it could prove to be an advanatge for Allen. 


- Special teams is a key in every hockey game. The Americans and Colorado were ranked #2 and #3 in the league on special teams during the regular season. If you break down home vs road regular season special team stats here is how it looks. Colorado had the best road power play in the ECHL at 25.0% but was also good at home at 24.7%. Allen was 27.3% at home and 21.3% on the road. If you look at the penalty kill the Eagles were 82.8% at home and 84.0% on the road. Allen was 82.8% at home and 86.1% on the road.


- Another thing to keep an eye on in this series is who scores first. Colorado and Allen were #1 and #2 in the ECHL during the regular season in winning games when scoring first. Both teams were almost impossible to beat when scoring first. Their combined record was a lofty 75-4-2-2. Based on that stat it is possible every game in this series will be won by the team that scores first.


- It is always interesting to watch the game within the game to see how coach Martinson sets his matchups with last change at home. Who takes faceoffs against Casey Pierro-Zabotel? How does Allen defend against Matt Register who as a defenseman is the Eagles leading scorer (tied) in the playoffs? By the way, Register had the game winning goal in both regular season games between these teams. Which lines play against each other? It is definitely a chess match that will be interesting to follow.


- Here is an Allen vs Colorado game preview from Jay Hay who is a new Team Sin Bin writer covering the Colorado Eagles. Welcome aboard Jay: http://thesinbin.net/mountain-division-final-preview-1-allen-americans-v-2-colorado-eagles/


OTHER COMMENTS

- The second round of the playoffs got underway last night in the North Division finals as Brampton beat Manchester at home by a score of 3-2 in overtime.


- The other three division finals series start tonight with South Carolina at Florida, Fort Wayne at Toledo and Colorado at Allen. All of the division finals series are a 2-3-2 format with the exception of Toledo vs Fort Wayne which is 2-2-1-1-1. The Toledo and Fort Wayne rinks are only 100 miles apart.


- In the Western Conference the teams that advanced to the second round went just as they were seeded. In the Central Division #1 seed Toledo takes on #2 Fort Wayne. Same in the Mountain Division where #1 seed Allen takes on #2 Colorado. It is a whole different story in the Eastern Conference. In the North Division #3 seed Brampton takes on #4 seed Manchester. In the South Division it is #1 seed Florida versus #3 seed South Carolina.


- Here is all of the playoff bracket info in graph form courtesy of Robert Ciccotelli:




- Here is a really good preview of all four division finals series from the ECHL. Make sure to click on the "Series Matchup Sheets" as that will take you to lots of additional info/stats on each series: http://www.echl.com/division-finals-preview-2017-kelly-cup-playoffs


- In affiliation news the San Jose Barracuda are also in action tonight as they resume their first round series against Stockton. The best of five series is tied 1-1 with the game tonight and Sunday afternoon in Stockton. If a game five is necessary it will be Tuesday in San Jose.


- If you are on Twitter and an Allen fan following Biscuit K9 (@FakeBiscuitK9) is a must. If you like good natured wit and humor Biscuit K9 always comes through. His (yes BiscuitK9 is a he but that is the only hint you get) tweets are never mean spirited but he does make good use of the needle. Last night for instance BiscuitK9 tweeted this after it was announced the New York Islanders were changing their ECHL affiliation next season from the Missouri Mavericks to the new ECHL team, Worcester Railers. Have to admit BiscuitK9's tweet made me chuckle a little. Sorry, not sorry.  He tweeted, "What a season for the Missouri Mavericks, lost their name, lost their playoff spot and now lost their affiliate."



DID YOU KNOW: There are Allen Americans alumni on all teams still in the ECHL playoffs. It is always good to see former Americans, who were part of a championship in Allen, do well elsewhere. Here is a list of players on the other seven teams in the ECHL division finals.

Brampton - Reggie Traccitto
Colorado - Darryl Bootland, Matt Register, Casey Pierro-Zabotel
Florida - Bryce Aneloski
Fort Wayne - Jamie Schaafsma, Kyle Follmer
Manchester - Daniel Doremus, *Rick Pinkston, Tony Turgeon
South Carolina - Danny Federico
Toledo - J.P. LaFontaine

*on playoff eligible list but hasn't played, loaned to Milwaukee (AHL)




Thursday, April 27, 2017

Western Conference Stat Comparison Continues, Playoff Bracket Update, Allen's All-Time Games Played List

Nothing new to report from practice as the Allen Americans continue to prepare for the second round playoff matchup with Colorado. Who will play and who will sit out the game for Allen on Friday still has to be determined. Coach Martinson's plan was for a video session before practice today.

- Yesterday I showed how the four Western Conference teams remaining in the playoffs (Allen vs Colorado & Toledo vs Fort Wayne) compared across 11 statistical categories during the regular season. Today I want to add the same data for the first round of the playoffs. The playoff sample size is very small with Allen, Colorado and Fort Wayne playing only five first round games and Toledo seven. With that caveat and caution that the playoff stats may be skewed because of the small sample size, in parentheses below are the playoff numbers so you can compare playoff performance to regular season performance.

Goals Scored (average per game)
4.19 - Toledo          (3.71)         
4.08 - Allen            (3.60)
3.68 - Colorado      (4.00)
3.67 - Fort Wayne  (3.20)

Goals Allowed (average per game)
2.65 - Toledo          (3.57)
2.82 - Allen            (2.00)
2.86 - Colorado      (3.00)
2.92 - Fort Wayne  (2.40)

Shots For (average per game)
34.39 - Fort Wayne  (36.20)
32.94 - Colorado      (29.60)
32.17 - Toledo          (28.86)
31.44 - Allen            (32.40)

Shots Against (average per game)
28.39 - Fort Wayne  (27.40)
28.63 - Toledo          (30.57)
29.75 - Colorado      (25.80)
34.93 - Allen            (28.20)

Shooting Percentage (goals as a percent of total shots)
12.9% - Allen            (11.1%)
12.9% - Toledo          (12.9%)
11.1% - Colorado      (13.5%)
10.6% - Fort Wayne  (8.8%)

Power Play Percentage
25.1% - Toledo          (25.0%)
24.8% - Colorado      (26.3%)
24.4% - Allen            (30.0%)
21.4% - Fort Wayne  (40.0%)

Penalty Kill Percentage
86.8% - Toledo          (82.6%)
84.4% - Allen            (92.6%)
83.4% - Colorado      (73.7%)
82.3% - Fort Wayne  (88.9%)

Plus/Minus
+334 - Allen            (+20)
+309 - Toledo          (-7)
+273 - Fort Wayne  (0)
+148 - Colorado      (+21)

Goals Against Average (GAA)
2.60 - Toledo          (3.57)
2.76 - Allen            (2.00)
2.80 - Colorado      (2.98)
2.86 - Fort Wayne  (2.25)

Save Percentage
.920 - Allen            (.929)
.908 - Toledo          (.883)
.905 - Colorado      (.884)
.898 - Fort Wayne  (.912)

Record Last 10 Games (regular season)
9-0-1-0 - Allen            (4-1 in first round)
7-2-1-0 - Fort Wayne  (4-1 in first round)
6-3-0-1 - Toledo          (4-3 in first round)
5-5-0-0 - Colorado      (4-1 in first round)


Drawing any conclusions from this data has to be taken with a grain of salt but here are a few observations:

- Toledo gave up almost a goal per game more (2.65 vs 3.57) in the first round of the playoffs than they did during the regular season.
- Fort Wayne's shooting percentage against Quad City in the first playoff round was very low (8.8%) but their power play was almost double (21.4% vs 40.0%) their regular season percentage.
- Colorado struggled on the penalty kill in the first round with a percentage of 73.7%.
- Toledo had a plus/minus during the regular season of +309 but in the first playoff round was -7.
- Colorado had the worst plus/minus (+148) during the regular season of the four remaining teams in the Western Conference but the best plus/minus (+21) in the first round of the playoffs.
- Allen had the best save percentage of the four teams in the regular season (.920) and that continued in the playoffs (.929).
- Toledo and Colorado had save percentages below .900 in the first round of the playoffs much lower than the regular season numbers. Toledo went from .908 to .883 and Colorado went from .905 to .884.


PLAYOFF UPDATE


- Florida became the final team to make it to the second round of the playoffs by beating Orlando at home last night by a score of 7-4. After trailing in this series 3-1 Florida became the sixth team in ECHL history to comeback and win. Florida will now take on South Carolina in the South Division finals. If you didn't follow this series it turned around on a brawl that started at the end of game four with 46 seconds remaining. Florida was trailing 3-0 and instigated a fight that ended up with two Florida players getting suspended. The Orlando goalie (Ryan Massa) was injured in the brawl and missed the final three games of the series. I don't pretend to know all of the details but it is clear with the game out of hand Florida wanted to start something. Massa made an ill advised choice to leave his crease and enter the fray. It does appear if you watch the video the Florida players continue to hit Massa in the head while he is at the bottom of the pile. The bottom line is Florida lost two players to suspensions but Orlando lost their goalie for the rest of the series. Massa had led the Solar Bears to a 3-1 series lead with a save percentage .938. With Massa out an untested rookie goalie had to step in for the last three games. Florida scored 14 goals in those three games to complete their comeback. I have seen in the past where a coach was held responsible and fined for a deliberate fight at the end of a game that was already lost but the league apparently didn't take any issue with the end of game four other than the player suspensions. It is sad the way this series ended. If you haven't seen this fight here is a fan video from YouTube which gives a better view of Massa leaving his crease to get involved which was a big mistake. This video is lengthy so you might want to advance it to the one minute mark in the game.  If you watch closely you can also see Massa being hit after he is down on the ice.



- The second round of the playoffs which are the division finals are now set. The games start tonight (Thursday) in the North Division with Manchester at Brampton. The division finals could go as long as May 10. Here is an updated bracket with special thanks to Robert Ciccotelli of the Allen Americans front office who went above and beyond to update the bracket to include the Florida vs Orlando results. Congratulations to all eight teams that made it to the elite eight. I know making it to the second round is not the goal for the remaining eight teams but it is quite an accomplishment in and of itself. The 19 teams sitting at home would all agree.




- Many fans are using social media and other methods to get the word out about the Allen Americans and make sure there is a big crowd this weekend and for the rest of the playoffs. Here is the second round schedule for the Allen vs Colorado series. All start times are central daylight time, that is the time in Allen when all the games will start. Tell all your friends and relatives they have to get tickets for this series. It should be epic. If you know anyone that has never been to an Allen playoff game and would like to attend I will provide free tickets for Friday and Saturday. I have six tickets (two together & four together) for each game. First come first serve until they are gone. Just email me at janssenfamily@msn.com.

Game 1 at Allen - Friday April 28th (7:05 pm)
Game 2 at Allen - Saturday April 29th (7:05 pm)

Game 3 at Colorado - Wednesday May 3rd (8:05 pm)
Game 4 at Colorado - Thursday May 4th (8:05 pm)
Game 5 at Colorado - Sunday May 7th (4:05 pm)

Game 6 at Allen - Tuesday May 9th (7:05 pm)
Game 7 at Allen - Wednesday May 10th (7:05 pm)


DID YOU KNOW: Since the Allen Americans franchise started in 2009-10 they have played 544 regular season games. Yet with the nature of AA hockey, players come and go all the time. Only 24 players in the history of the Americans have played 100 games with the team and just six have played 200 games. Here are the six that have played 200 or more games in Allen.

247 - Tyler Ludwig
238 - Jarret Lukin
229 - Mike Berube
216 - Chad Costello
215 - Brian McMillin
200 - Gary Steffes

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Practice Update, Playoff Update, Allen, Colorado, Fort Wayne & Toledo Compared, Allen's All-Time Ironmen

It was a playoff style practice for the Allen Americans yesterday as coach Martinson, goalie coach Thomas Speer and skating coach Luke Chilcott put the team through the paces as they prepare for the division finals series against the Colorado Eagles. Back check drills, breakout drills and other system tweaks to adapt to how Martinson wants to attack Colorado. Tanner Eberle was a full participant at practice yesterday for the first time in a month though he was wearing the no contact yellow jersey. Tanner will not play this weekend. A couple of other players were not skating yesterday but should be available by Friday.


-  One of the many similarities between Allen and Colorado is they can be successful playing a skill and speed game or a rough and gritty game or a combination of the two. For those that think the series between Allen and Colorado will be a penalty filled slug fest, they may be right but the series could also be more of a battle of skill and will. After the first round of the playoffs Allen is ranked #6 in average penalty minutes per game (15.00) and Colorado is ranked #12 (10.20). Much different than their #1 and #2 ranking during the regular season.



- Two more teams punched their ticket into the second round of the playoffs last night. Manchester beat Adirondack 6-5 in overtime to win their North Division series 4-2. Hats off to Manchester who not only knocked off the #1 seed in the division, they did it having just two home games because of facility availability. Manchester will face Brampton in the North Division finals. The other team that advanced last night was Toledo who beat Kalamazoo 3-1 in the seventh game of their Central Division semi-final. Home ice advantage proved to be important in that series as the home team won all seven games.


- The only first round series not complete is in the South Division where Florida beat Orlando last night 6-4 at home to force a game seven which is tonight in Florida. Orlando had Florida on the ropes with a 3-1 series lead and game five at home. Florida has fought back to tie the series 3-3 and has to be the favorite at home tonight. If  somehow  Orlando can pull out a win tonight it will be a clean sweep for the lower seeds in the Eastern Conference. The #1 and #2 seeds in the North Division have been eliminated as well as the #2 seed in the South Division. Only Florida, who is the #1 seed in the South Division and the Eastern Conference has a chance to advance.


- It is a different story in the Western Conference as all four higher seeded teams advanced to the second round. The #1 seed in the Central Division (Toledo) will take on #2 seeded Fort Wayne. In the Mountain Division #1 seed Allen takes on #2 seed Colorado.



-  The "Barry the Blogger Matrix" was spot on in predicting the first round winners in the Mountain Division so thought I would give it a try to predict who will be the winners in the second round and advance to the Western Conference finals. This matrix is a way to compare teams across a number of statistical categories and then come up with an overall score. Can't say the "Barry the Blogger Matrix" is a good predictor of Kelly Cup success as it had Fort Wayne vs South Carolina in the finals last season.


- Below is how the four remaining teams in the Western Conference playoffs compare in 11 statistical categories. This uses regular season stats only. Fairly easy to see the strengths and weaknesses of each team. 


Goals Scored (average per game)
4.19 - Toledo
4.08 - Allen
3.68 - Colorado
3.67 - Fort Wayne

Goals Allowed (average per game)
2.65 - Toledo
2.82 - Allen
2.86 - Colorado
2.92 - Fort Wayne

Shots For (average per game)
34.39 - Fort Wayne
32.94 - Colorado
32.17 - Toledo
31.44 - Allen

Shots Against (average per game)
28.39 - Fort Wayne
28.63 - Toledo
29.75 - Colorado
34.93 - Allen

Shooting Percentage (goals as a percent of total shots)
12.9% - Allen
12.9% - Toledo
11.1% - Colorado
10.6% - Fort Wayne

Power Play Percentage
25.1% - Toledo
24.8% - Colorado
24.4% - Allen
21.4% - Fort Wayne

Penalty Kill Percentage
86.8% - Toledo
84.4% - Allen
83.4% - Colorado
82.3% - Fort Wayne

Plus/Minus
+334 - Allen
+309 - Toledo
+273 - Fort Wayne
+148 - Colorado

Goals Against Average (GAA)
2.60 - Toledo
2.76 - Allen
2.80 - Colorado
2.86 - Fort Wayne

Save Percentage
.920 - Allen
.908 - Toledo
.905 - Colorado
.898 - Fort Wayne

Record Last 10 Games (regular season)
9-0-1-0 - Allen
7-2-1-0 - Fort Wayne
6-3-0-1 - Toledo
5-5-0-0 - Colorado



- Finally, I tallied up the rank for each team in every category to get an overall score. The lower the score the better. If you finished first in every category you would get a final score of 11 and if you finished last in each category the score would be 44. Here are the results:

18.5 - Toledo
23.5 - Allen
33.0 - Colorado
35.0 - Fort Wayne


 - Based on the matrix you would pick Toledo as a heavy favorite over Fort Wayne and Allen as the favorite over Colorado. While this is an interesting way to look at regular season performance it is not a very good way to pick outcomes in the second round of the playoffs.


- A simpler way to compare matchups is to look how the teams fared in head to head games. Allen played Colorado just two times in the regular season and lost both. The Americans lost in Colorado 4-3 on November 9th and at home 5-4 on December 14th. Former Allen player and ECHL Defenseman of the Year, Matt Register, had the game winning goal in both games. They were both power play goals.


- Toledo and Fort Wayne played six times during the regular season and Toledo dominated. The Walleye had a record of 5-1 against the Komets and outscored Fort Wayne 26-12.


DID YOU KNOW:  I think one of the more undervalued statistics there is has to do with players that never miss a game. I call them the Ironmen and they are few and far between. In AA hockey with limited rosters and salary cap/budget issues having a player that plays every game in a season is something special and valuable. That means playing with injuries, no AHL call ups and answering the bell each and every game. Thought today would be a good day to honor all of the Ironmen in Allen history. One thing to keep in mind is when the Americans first started in the CHL (2009-10) they only played 64 games in a season. It was then expanded to 66 games and since joining the ECHL (2014-15) it is 72 games. Congrats to all Allen Ironmen past and present!

2016-17 - Chad Costello, Joel Chouinard
2015-16 - Chad Costello
2014-15 - Chad Costello, Aaron Gens, Jamie Schaafsma
2013-14 - Spencer Asuchak, Daniel Tetrault, Mike Berube
2012-13 - Jamie Schaafsma, Jason Deitsch
2011-12 - Jason Deitsch
2010-11 - Colton Yellow Horn, David Strathman
2009-10 - Bruce Graham, Christian Gaudet