For those of you who have followed the blog in the past, you know that each season I post a Thanksgiving blog listing the 16 teams that will make the playoffs. I use a model based on NHL playoff history that says 80% of playoff teams are decided by Thanksgiving. Typically, that means just a few teams not in playoff positions at Thanksgiving will make the playoffs. It is strictly by the numbers, with some commentary on possible teams that will defy the model.
- This is always a fun blog to write each season and track how accurate it is come playoff time. I have had some success with this hypothesis, but also some spectacular failures. None more memorable than four years ago when I wrote this about the Americans at Thanksgiving, "Allen is in last place in the division with a .393 point percentage and is the only team out of contention for a playoff spot." That commentary had me eating crow chili in April as Allen finished second in the Mountain Division and advanced to the second round of the Kelly Cup playoffs.
- Here are the results of the predictions from Thanksgiving. These were the standings and point percentages at Thanksgiving. The teams with an asterisk ended up making the playoffs.
NORTH DIVISION (3/4 correct)
- 1. Wheeling (..806)*
- 2. Maine (.676)*
- 3. Trois Riviéres (.647)
- 4. Reading (.556)*
Adirondack (.531) was close behind Reading for the final playoff spot at Thanksgiving and displaced the defending Kelly Cup champion, Trois-Riviéres, in the playoffs. Trois-Riviéres finished in fifth place.
SOUTH DIVISION (3/4 correct)
- 1. Atlanta (.750)*
- 2. Florida (.684)*
- 3. South Carolina (.611)*
- 4. Jacksonville (.529)
- 4. Greenville (529)
The
South Division had six of seven teams with a points percentage of .500
or more at Thanksgiving. My commentary at Thanksgiving said this: "While none
of the teams below the playoff cut line are out
of the picture, except Orlando (.250), the final playoff spot will
likely be Jacksonville or Greenville. They are two evenly matched teams
with a history of making the playoffs and with strong affiliations. Savannah is the other .500
team, but the Ghost Pirates have never made the playoffs since joining
the ECHL in 2022-23 and will likely have the same fate this season." Bad commentary on my part as Greenville and Jacksonville faded to below .500 teams and Savannah claimed the fourth playoff spot.
CENTRAL DIVISION (3/4 correct)
- 1. Fort Wayne (.750)*
- 2. Bloomington (.625)*
- 3. Toledo (.618)*
- 4. Cincinnati (.583)
The
only other team above .500 at Thanksgiving was Indy (.528), and the Fuel edged out Cincinnati and Kalamazoo for the final playoff spot, which wasn't decided until the last game of the season.
MOUNTAIN DIVISION
- 1. Tahoe (.675)*
- 2. Kansas City (.647)*
- 3. Idaho (.600)*
- 4. Utah (.500)
Here was my commentary at Thanksgiving:
The Mountain Division is easily the most difficult to predict and most likely to have teams not in the top four make the playoffs. Notice the #1 team (Tahoe) has the lowest point percentage of any division's #1 team, and the #4 team also has the lowest point percentage of any #4 team in the other divisions. While Tahoe and Kansas City seem to be the class of the division, anything could happen. The four teams not currently in a playoff spot are Wichita (.472), Allen (.469), Rapid City (.444), and Tulsa (.438). If affiliate help determines the outcome, here are the NHL/AHL contracted players assigned to each team as of last week's report: Rapid City (10), Wichita (7), Tulsa (6), and Allen (0). I know these numbers have changed since a week ago, but this gives you a relative comparison. The bottom line is that none of the Mountain Division teams are out of the playoff hunt, and I would expect one or two teams currently outside of a playoff spot to make it in.
The team that came on strong after Thanksgiving was Allen, who not only made the list but finished in second place. Here are the points percentage changes from Thanksgiving to the end of the season in final standings order:
- +.152: Kansas City increased from .647 to .799
- +.170: Allen increased from .469 to .639
- +.032: Idaho increased from .600 to .632
- -.140: Tahoe decreased from .675 to .535
- -.014: Utah decreased from .500 to .486
- +.007: Rapid City increased from .444 to .451
- .000: Tulsa stayed the same .438 - .438
- -.041: Wichita decreased from .472 to .431
CONCLUSIONS
- The model predicted 12 of the 16 teams that made the playoffs for a 75% accuracy rate.
- The good news is that the model was 92% accurate on the top three teams making the playoffs from each division. 11 of the top 12 teams at Thanksgiving made the playoffs.
- The bad news is that three of the four fourth-place teams at Thanksgiving didn't make the playoffs.
- All in all, it was a lot of fun putting this together again this season, and it proved once again that most teams' fate is determined by Thanksgiving.
- How does the regular season finish affect the playoffs? Finishing #1 (Kansas City) always brings up talk of the Brabham Cup curse. After all, the #1 team during the regular season hasn't won the Kelly Cup since 2014. Does it make a difference where a team finishes in the regular season? Here is where the Kelly Cup champion has finished in the regular season since 2005.
- 2025 - Trois-Rivières - (5th)
- 2024 - Florida (8th)
- 2023 - Florida (11th)
- 2022 - Florida (3rd)
- 2021 - Fort Wayne (5th)
- 2020 - No Playoffs
- 2019 - Newfoundland (3rd)
- 2018 - Colorado (4th)
- 2017 - Colorado (3rd)
- 2016 - Allen (5th)
- 2015 - Allen (2nd)
- 2014 - Alaska - (1st)
- 2013 - Reading (2nd)
- 2012 - Florida (7th)
- 2011 - Alaska (1st)
- 2010 - Cincinnati (5th)
- 2009 - South Carolina (4th)
- 2008 - Cincinnati (1st)
- 2007 - Idaho (6th)
- 2006 - Alaska (1st)
- 2005 - Trenton (5th)
- Here is another breakdown of where the Kelly Cup champions finished in the regular season since 2005. 80% of the time, the Kelly Cup champion finished in the top five in the regular season. The idea that once you make the playoffs, any team can win is a misnomer. The team in parentheses is the team occupying that spot in the regular season just completed. Will a team outside the top five win the 2026 Kelly Cup?
- #1 - 4 times (Kansas City)
- #2 - 2 times (Florida)
- #3 - 3 times (Fort Wayne)
- #4 - 2 times (Toledo)
- #5 - 5 times (Wheeling)
- #6 - 1 time (South Carolina)
- #7 - 1 time (Atlanta)
- #8 - 1 time (Maine)
- #9 - never (Allen)
- #10 - never (Idaho)
- #11 - 1 time (Adirondack)
- #12 - never (Reading)
- #13 - never (Bloomington)
- #14 - never (Indy)
- #15 - never (Tahoe)
- #16 - never (Savannah)
- Here are players participating in the 2026 Kelly Cup playoffs with 30 or more career playoff points:
- 101 points (42G, 59A), 81 games - Brandon Hawkins, Toledo
- 52 points (24G, 28A), 82 games - Spencer Asuchak, Allen
- 49 points (20G, 29A), 57 games - Oliver Chau, Florida
- 41 points (21G, 20A), 73 games - Justin Taylor, Adirondack
- 41 points (17G, 24A), 41 games - Logan Lambdin, Florida
- 33 points (14G, 19A), 30 games - Ty Pelton-Byce, Idaho
- 30 points (15G, 15A) 41 games - Alex Aleardi, Fort Wayne
Asuchak, Chau, and Lambdin have won two Kelly Cup championships; Hawkins has won one.
- Two playoff MVP's will be participating in the 2026 playoffs, both from the Florida Everblades.
- Oliver Chau won the award in 2024, leading Florida to its third straight Kelly Cup. In 23 games, he had 23 points (9G, 14A) and a team-leading +21 among the forwards.
- Cam Johnson was the playoff MVP in 2022 and 2023, leading Florida to Kelly Cups. A workhorse, Johnson was in goal for 31 of the 32 wins in the two championship seasons. In the just-completed regular season, Johnson played in more games (49) than any other ECHL goalie, and led the league in GAA (1.84). He will be a big factor as he and the Everblades try for their fourth Kelly Cup in the last five seasons.
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