Playoff game day for the Allen Americans has finally arrived. The last of the eight ECHL first round series gets underway tonight (8:10 pm CDT) as Mountain Division #3 seed Allen visits #2 seed Idaho. For the Americans it is their 13th playoff run in 15 seasons. Allen has missed the playoffs just once in franchise history (2019) and there was no playoff in 2020.
- The playoff series that kicks off tonight is the 30th since the Allen franchise began in 2009-10. The Americans all time series record is 21-8. Allen's series record from its first playoff (2010) through it's last championship (2016) was 18-3. Since 2016 the Americans series record is 3-5.
- A lot of ground has been covered this week comparing stats between Allen and Idaho and it is abundantly clear the Steelheads were the better team during the regular season. The overall records of 33-25-3-1 (.486) for Allen and 48-20-2-2 (.694) for Idaho shows the contrast. Allen's head to head record against Idaho this season was 3-7-1-0 (.318).
- If you look at the glass half empty you would say Allen only had three wins in the 11 games against Idaho during the regular season. The Americans were out shot 131-86 in the three wins and the common denominator in the wins was goalie Leevi Meriläinen. Allen was 3-0-0-0 with Leevi in goal against Idaho and 0-7-1-0 when he was not in goal. Meriläinen is in the playoffs, but it is in Belleville in the Calder Cup playoffs. There is a spot saved for him in Allen if/when Belleville is eliminated. The soonest that could happen is on Friday. Another point in the half empty glass is the #3 seed has never beaten the #2 seed in the first round of the Mountain Division playoffs since Allen joined the ECHL.
- If you look at the glass half full there is a lot to be encouraged about going into this series. Allen is missing its captain and best all around player, Colton Hargrove, but with that exception, the Americans enter this series with the healthiest and deepest lineup they have had all season. Allen hasn't played Idaho since the beginning of February and the Steelheads will see a much different Americans team tonight. Over half of Allen's playoff roster faced Idaho six or fewer games during the regular season.
- 0 games - Kameron Kielly
- 0 games - Chaz Smedsrud
- 0 games - James Hardie
- 0 games - Justin Allen
- 2 games - Liam Finlay
- 3 games - Mikael Robidoux
- 6 games - Blake Murray
- 6 games - Bennett MacArthur
- 6 games - Grant Hebert
- 6 games - Colin Jacobs
- 6 games - Nolan Orzeck
- 6 games - Ty Farmer
- For a stats guy like me to see a key to this series that has nothing to do with numbers is unusual. I talk to the coaches everyday, watch the practices and check in with many of the players and there is no doubt this team truly believes they can win this series, despite what looks like an uphill battle. They have had a week to prepare and have a plan that everyone has bought into, but translating this belief into action will be a challenge.
- To be successful in this series Allen will have to stay out of the penalty box. Idaho has the best power play in the ECHL, ranked #1 at 28.5%. Allen is ranked #14 at 20.2%. Idaho scored 71 power play goals during the regular season compared to Allen's 49. In the 11 head to head games Allen held its own despite giving up more power play opportunities. Allen was 9-46 (19.6%) on the power play and Idaho was 10-53 (18.9%).
Allen was ranked #2 in the league in penalty minutes (1211) while Idaho was ranked #20 (830). During the regular season Allen took more minor penalties (348 vs 300), five minute majors (25 vs 16), 10 minute misconducts (27 vs 12) and game misconducts (12 vs 2). Allen needs to be physical but disciplined to be successful in this series.
- Another key to this series is controlling Idaho's offensive defensemen, specifically Matt Register and Patrick Kudla. Kudla was just selected as the ECHL Defenseman of the Year and Register finished third in the voting. Just four ECHL defensemen had 60+ points this season, Register (10G, 54A) and Kudla (10G, 50A) were two of them. Register and Kudla combined for 104 assists this season. Allen's entire team of defensemen totaled 123 assists.
For Allen to be successful it will have to take time and space away from Register and Kudla. It doesn't necessarily mean big hits but the Americans have to stay in their face.
- It is worth repeating another key to this series because the stats are so compelling. Allen needs good starts and has to avoid playing from behind:
Allen does not want to play from behind in this series as Idaho is lethal with a lead. The Steelheads have the best record in the league when they score first. Allen's record is good when it scores the first goal at 22-8-1-1 (.719) but Idaho is almost unbeatable when it scores first with a record of 34-3-1-2 (.888). Odds are pretty good the team that scores first in this series wins the game.
Another stat that
says beware of playing from behind against Idaho is goal differential by
period. Allen has struggled in the second period most of the season.
The Americans score more goals in the second period (85) than any other
period but have allowed the most second period goals in the league
(110). That is a second period goal differential of -25. Idaho on the
other hand scored more second period goals (122) than any other team in
the ECHL and allowed just 77 for a second period goal differential of
+45. The second periods of this series will be critical.
You combine Idaho's dominance in the second period with its record of 36-1-1-0 when leading after the second period and you can see why Allen can't play from behind in this series. If Allen can play with the lead the Americans are also dominant. The Americans record with a second period lead is 25-2-1-1.
- Allen enters this series having a seven game points streak and a record of 6-0-1-0 just to make the playoffs. After the Americans made the playoffs, they traveled to Tulsa overnight for a meaningless game to end the season, they lost 4-1. Despite the success to end the season Allen averaged just 2.88 goals per games in its last eight games. In the Idaho series Allen will have to be more aggressive offensively to generate more offense without giving up a bunch of odd man rushes and breakaways. Averaging less than three goals a game in this series will not lead to success for the Americans. Remember, the winning team in the 11 head to head games against Idaho had eight goals once, six goals twice, five goals six times, four goals once and three goals once. It is now playoff hockey so there could be lower scores, but it is likely the winning team will have more than three goals in every game in this series.
- How important is game one of a seven game series? Across all major sports the winner of game one in a seven game series will win the series between 75% -80% of the time. For a lot of reasons Allen needs a win tonight.
- As with all ECHL playoff games there will two referees working Allen's game tonight. Brendan Schreider (#12) and Tatu Kunto (#17) will be the referees.
OTHER COMMENTS
- There are four games on the ECHL schedule tonight. One of them is Kansas City at Tulsa. The Mavericks lead the series 3-0 and can advance to the second round with a win tonight. Here is the ECHL Today with the previews and the status of all eight series: https://echl.com/news/2024/04/echl-today-april-22
- Congrats to former Allen players Colton Saucerman (2022-23), Brett Neumann (2020-21) and Dominic Cormier (2020-21) of the Sheffield Steelers who won the EIHL playoff championship yesterday with a 3-1 win over the Belfast Giants. The game was not without controversy in the one game final. Here are the details: https://www.bbc.com/sport/ice-hockey/articles/ceklv348xe7o
- The lower seeds (#3 & #4) won two of three games yesterday so the higher seeds (#1 & #2) record in the playoffs is now 10-5. No higher seed is down by more than one game. There are 28 games this week with at least one game every night. By the end of the week on Sunday many teams will have advanced to the second round. Here the the number of games by each day this week:
- 4 games - Monday
- 1 game - Tuesday
- 4 games - Wednesday
- 1 game - Thursday
- 6 games - Friday
- 7 games - Saturday
- 5 games - Sunday
- You will see a couple of ECHL future Hall of Famers and all time ECHL playoff record holders tonight. One playing and one coaching:
- Matt Register - #1 most playoff games (146)
- Matt Register - #1 career playoff assist (87)
- Matt Register - #1 career assists final series (17)
- Chad Costello - #1 most assists, one playoff year (29)
- Chad Costello - #1 most assists in any playoff series (10)
- Chad Costello - #1 most assists in final series (10)
- It is still very early in the playoffs and the playoff MVP almost always goes to the Kelly Cup champion, but two players are off to tremendous starts:
- Jordan Martel - Wheeling, has six points (2G, 4A) in two games for a 3.00 points per game average.
- Brandon Hawkins - Toledo, the ECHL MVP has five points (1G, 5A) in two games for a point per game average of 2.50. His goal was the game winner.
DID YOU KNOW: There ECHL Stats post today is about goal differentials. Here are Allen's goal differentials the last three seasons:
- -43: 2023-24
- -3: 2022-23
- -4: 2021-22
Let's go RED!
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