I have been thinking about writing about my thoughts on the upcoming ECHL hockey season for a while now and decided today is the day. If I had to describe this post it would definitely be the glass half empty point of view. After all, with the Dallas Stars in the NHL final, some pro hockey leagues in Europe starting to play, the NFL in full swing with fans in the stands in some cases and high school sports starting, the glass half full may be the more prevalent point of view but that is not mine as it relates to the ECHL and the Allen Americans.
- Here are some of the stories and comments I have seen in the last week or so that gives me pause:
NHL - Commissioner Gary Bettman admitted on Saturday he would not be surprised if the start date for the 2020-21 season slips into later December or even into January.
AHL - I saw a statement where the AHL needs a minimum of 60 days notice before they could start a season as some employees are furloughed and start up will take time. It is pretty clear the AHL will not start its season before the NHL. Another cause for concern is you see more and more NHL/AHL contracted players being loaned to teams in Europe. I am sure these loans include the right to recall the players back at any time but that is not a good sign. I saw where as of Saturday, 110 NHL/AHL contracted players have been loaned to European clubs led by Edmonton with 12 players loaned.
EIHL - One European league has suspended play for the 2020-21 season. The top pro league in Great Britain is similar to the ECHL in that they cannot survive without fans in the stands. They are also similar to the US in that they have been hit hard by COVID-19 and it is on the upswing. While the US has the highest rate of deaths per million population in North America (617 per million) the Untied Kingdom is #3 in Europe in deaths per million population (615 per million). In the EIHL press release announcing the suspension of the season the league indicated if government guidance and support were to change some teams could revise their plans to return to play. You have started to see players from the EIHL sign with ECHL clubs and more will likely follow. One such player is former Allen goalie C.J. Motte who played for Coventry. Motte finished the 2019-20 season with Coventry after starting the season in Austria and was statistically the best goalie in the EIHL over the 24 games he played.
DEL - The top German league has been delayed from September 18 to November 13 but as of now they haven't released a schedule and the capacity is limited to 20%. Most teams will not survive at 20% capacity so further delays are possible. This is the league that Chad Costello has played in since going to Europe. With the uncertainty in Germany, Chad could sign with Allen or look to the leagues in Europe that will start play earlier. Sweden has already started playing with Finland starting October 1st and Norway starting October 3rd.
ECHL - Keeping in mind the information above it is hard for me to believe the ECHL will start play on December 4th which is the planning assumption right now. It appears the NHL and AHL will not start until later and you have to assume the ECHL will follow their lead. The ECHL start up is complicated by the fact the league is in 19 states all with different rules on how many people can be in their arenas. You add the two Canadian provinces and it is hard to see how this can work especially with the prediction cases will spike as winter arrives. It is hard to conclude anything other than some teams are not going to make it through this pandemic and changes to the schedule, travel, etc. will be constantly in flux.
Allen Americans - If things aren't bleak enough conjecturing about the 2020-21 season a recent announcement hit home. The city of Coralville, Iowa (suburb of Iowa City, home of the University of Iowa) has announced an agreement with the ownership group of the Newfoundland Growlers to bring an ECHL team to their new Xtream Arena for the 2021-22 season. While the ECHL made it clear a franchise has not been approved the expectation is this will happen. There was nothing in the press release indicating the new ECHL team would affiliate with Minnesota but when you consider the Wild's AHL affiliate is in Des Moines, which is a mere 115 miles from Iowa City, it is a natural fit.
So there you have my glass half empty, the sky is falling speculation about what might be in store for the ECHL and Allen Americans in 2020-21. A recap of my worst case scenarios:
- COVID-19 stats get worse the next three months
- ECHL delays season even further
- many ECHL teams decide they can't play under current capacity guidelines
- Chad Costello doesn't sign in Allen or Germany but plays elsewhere in Europe
- Minnesota Wild switch ECHL affiliation to a new franchise in Iowa City for the 2021-22 season.
I would be thrilled to be wrong about each and everyone of these points. Reading the tea leaves is always speculative. Maybe because I am now 73 years old and in that "expendable group" I am seeing this with a jaundiced eye. I hope the glass half full options win out.
Reluctantly I agree - for the ECHL the main revenue source is “butts in the seats” - opening the season with limited seating capacity will put severe financial pressure on many of the teams which are already stretched thin and I can’t see restrictions being lifted anytime soon. Spring/summer hockey anyone?
ReplyDeleteWith this being the last year of Martinson’s contract, him being friends with the Iowa GM, Coralville most likely the next affiliate because this is also Allen’s last year of affiliation, the owner who shows fake financial data to prospective buyers, or no data at all so no sale, what does all that add up to...
ReplyDeleteAmericans fans being up s**t creek, that’s what...
We didn't renew our season tickets for this season. With no guidance from the organization, ECHL and local government we decided to error on the side of caution since we too are in the "expendable" group. Furthermore, when the organization refused to refund the unused tickets we were not happy campers.
ReplyDeleteI just don't see how many of the teams in the ECHL can make it financially unless the NHL/AHL teams step in and give assistance to their affiliates.