The playoff journey begins this morning when the Allen Americans fly to Idaho to take on the ECHL's #3 team during the regular season. By any measurement it will be an uphill battle for the Americans whose regular season record against the Steelheads was 3-7-1-0. The first two games of the series will be in Idaho (Monday and Wednesday) before returning to Allen for games on Friday (7:10 pm), Saturday (4:10 pm) and Sunday (4:10 pm).
- Here is a comparison of a handful of stats between Allen and Idaho. Of the 12 on the list Idaho is better in 11 of them. The lone exception is team save percentage.
Goals Scored (average per game)
- 4.21 - Idaho
- 3.24 - Allen
Goals Allowed (average per game)
- 3.36 - Idaho
- 3.83 - Allen
Shots For (average per game)
- 35.79 - Idaho
- 30.22 - Allen
Shots Against (average per game)
- 32.35 - Idaho
- 39.90 - Allen
Shooting Percentage (goals as a percent of total shots)
- 11.8% - Idaho
- 10.6% - Allen
Power Play Percentage
- 28.5% - Idaho
- 20.2% - Allen
Penalty Kill Percentage
- 79.2% - Idaho
- 78.2% - Allen
Power Play Goals Scored
- 71 - Idaho
- 49 - Allen
Plus/Minus
- +203: Idaho
- -174: Allen
Goals Against Average (GAA)
- 3.31 - Idaho
- 3.78 - Allen
Save Percentage
- .904 - Allen
- .897 - Idaho
Record Last 10 Games
- 7-3-0-0 - Idaho
- 6-3-1-0 - Allen
- The question that will be answered over the next week is whether Allen can outperform its regular season results in the playoffs. The answer to that question is yes, especially if you look at the Americans playoff roster. Allen enters the series with all 22 players healthy which was not the case during the regular season. In addition, Allen's lineup has more depth than it did during the regular season games against Idaho. Allen played Idaho 11 times during the regular season. Here is a list of the players on the playoff roster with how many of the 11 games they played against Idaho. Idaho will get Allen's best in this series:
- 0 games - Kameron Kielly
- 0 games - Chaz Smedsrud
- 0 games - James Hardie
- 0 games - Justin Allen
- 2 games - Liam Finlay
- 3 games - Mikael Robidoux
- 6 games - Blake Murray
- 6 games - Bennett MacArthur
- 6 games - Grant Hebert
- 6 games - Colin Jacobs
- 6 games - Nolan Orzeck
- 6 games - Ty Farmer
- 7 games - Ryan Gagnon
- 7 games - Andrew Jarvis
- 8 games - Colby McAuley
- 9 games - Hank Crone
- 9 games - Easton Brodzinski
- 9 games - Ty Fournier
- 11 games - Kris Myllari
- 11 games - Eric Williams
- One of the stats that presents the biggest challenge for Allen is goal differential. During the regular season Allen scored an average of 3.24 goals per game and allowed an average of 3.83 goals per game for a goal differential of -0.59. Idaho's numbers are 4.21 goals scored and 3.36 goals allowed for a goal differential of +0.85.
If you compare the 11 head to head games Allen averaged 3.18 goals per game and Idaho averaged 4.45. It was feast or famine for Allen. In the Americans three wins against the Steelheads they averaged 5.33 goals per game. In the eight losses Allen averaged 2.38 goals per game and in six of the eight losses scored two or fewer goals.
It is not this simple but in a broad way Allen has two choices in how it plays this series. The Americans can play a style to reduce the goals allowed or increase its goals scored. The winning team in the 11 games played during the regular season had five or more goals in nine of the games. The other two games the winning team had four and three goals. While team defense will be critical in this series the Americans will not be successful if their goal is to win games 2-1 or 3-2. Allen's mentality has to be more like the first team to five goals will win the game.
- Allen does not want to play from behind in this series as Idaho is lethal with a lead. The Steelheads have the best record in the league when they score first. Allen's record is good when it scores the first goal at 22-8-1-1 (.719) but Idaho is almost unbeatable when it scores first with a record of 34-3-1-2 (.888). Odds are pretty good the team that scores first in this series wins the game.
Another stat that says beware of playing from behind against Idaho is goal differential by period. Allen has struggled in the second period most of the season. The Americans score more goals in the second period (85) than any other period but have allowed the most second period goals in the league (110). That is a second period goal differential of -25. Idaho on the other hand scored more second period goals (122) than any other team in the ECHL and allowed just 77 for a second period goal differential of +45. The second periods of this series will be critical.
You combine Idaho's dominance in the second period with its record of 36-1-1-0 when leading after the second period and you can see why Allen can't play from behind in this series. If Allen can play with the lead the Americans are almost as dominant. The Americans record with a second period lead is 25-2-1-1.
- I will have more series preview tomorrow, but if you want to delve deep into the stats checkout this series preview that was issued by Idaho. It covers all of the regular season stats, previous playoffs between these teams, head to head stats and playoff experience of the Idaho players. If you are a stats geek you will love this preview: https://idahosteelheads.com/news/2024/04/idaho-vs-allen-mountain-division-semifinals-series-preview
OTHER COMMENTS
- The Belleville Senators clinched fourth place in the AHL North Division and will play the fifth place Toronto Marlies in a best of three series in opening round of the playoffs. The games are scheduled for Wednesday (24th), Friday (26th) and Sunday (28th). The soonest Belleville's season could be over is Friday night if Toronto sweeps the Senators. The hope for help from Belleville is still alive, barely!
- The EIHL championship game is today and pits the Sheffield Steelers against the Belfast Giants in a one game winner take all event. Sheffield has been the best team in the league all season and is going for the EIHL grand slam which is winning the regular season, a tournament during the season called the Challenge Cup and the playoffs. Allen is well represented on the Sheffield team. Colton Saucerman, Brett Neumann and Dominic Cormier play for the Stellers. Neumann was injured in the semi-final game yesterday and from what I understand will miss the championship game today.
- Here is where the ECHL playoff series stand:
- North Division
- #1 Adirondack trails #4 Maine 1-0
- #2 Norfolk leads #3 Trois Riviéres 2-1
- South Division
- #1 Greenville vs #4 Orlando play first game today
- #2 Jacksonville leads #3 Florida 1-0
- Central Division
- #1 Toledo leads #4 Kalamazoo 2-0
- #2 Indy and #3 Wheeling are tied 1-1
- #1 Kansas City leads #4 Tulsa 3-0
- #2 Idaho vs #3 Allen play first game on Monday
So far the higher seeds have a record of 9-3.
DID YOU KNOW: The ECHL Stats post today is about teams that won 20 or more home games and road games. Since joining the ECHL Allen has accomplished it twice. In 2016-17 Allen won 25 home games and 24 road games. In 2014-15 Allen won 24 home games, 24 road games and topped the season off with its first Kelly Cup.
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