Does Allen Have the Roster to Win the Kelly Cup?

As I was writing the game recap yesterday about Allen's 6-3 win over Utah and listing all of the Allen players currently leading the ECHL in various offensive categories the thought that kept coming to mind was something coach Martinson has repeatedly said recently, "We have to get better defensively."


- I thought today I would take a crack at comparing the current version of the Allen Americans with some of the stats from the two Kelly Cup championship teams. With 64% of the 2019-20 season in the books the Americans are on pace to have the best offense since joining the ECHL. Here are the players currently topping the ECHL:

Tyler Sheehy - #1 Overall Points (54)
Gabe Gagne #1 Goals (24)
Tyler Sheehy #1 Assists (35)
Tyler Sheehy #1 Rookie Points (54)
Tyler Sheehy #1 Rookie Goals (19)
Tyler Sheehy #1 Rookie Assists (35)
Tyler Sheehy #1 Rookie Power Play Points (15)
Tyler Sheehy #1 Rookie Power Play Assists (12)
Jack Sadek #1 Rookie Plus/Minus (+23)
Alex Breton #1 Defensemen Points (36)
Stepan Falkovsky #1 Defensemen Goals (12)
Alex Breton #1 Defensemen Assists (30)
Stepan Falkovsky #1 Defensemen Power Play Goals (6)
Stepan Falkovsky #1 Defensemen Shorthanded Goals (2)
Stepan Falkovsky #1 Defensemen Shooting Percentage (23.1)


- Three players already have 20 or more goals this season (Gagne, Guptill, Topping) with Sheehy (19) and VanWormer (18) close. The Americans will have a minimum of five players reach 20 goals and it is possible they could have seven. Compare that to 2014-15 when Allen had four 20+ scorers and 2015-16 when they had three.


- Allen is on pace to have close to 300 goals this season. Thus far the Americans are averaging just over four goals per game which would project to 294 for the entire season. However, since the first of the year Allen has averaged 4.75 goals per game. If they kept up that pace they would finish the year with around 310 goals. As a comparison Allen had 292 goals in 2014-15 and 222 in 2015-16.


- There is no doubt Allen has the offensive firepower to win the Kelly Cup. The offense is much more spread out than the championship seasons. In 2014-15 two players (Costello and Steffes) had 30% of Allen's goals in the regular season. In 2015-16 Allen had three players with 20+ goals, Costello (24), Steffes (22) and Crane (21). As stated above this season the Americans may have seven 20 goals scorers. The depth on this team is unparalleled. 


- The unanswered question this late in the season is whether Allen has the talent to play the kind of defense necessary to win a championship. In their two Kelly Cup winning seasons the Americans allowed 203 and 204 regular season goals. If you look at the last five Kelly Cup champions the average goals allowed was 206.8 ranging from 203-214. This season Allen is on pace to allow 229 goals. More alarming is since New Year's Eve (13 games) the Americans are giving up an average of 3.69 goals per game and that includes two games against Kansas City when Allen won 8-2 and 8-0. If you project for the remainder of the season the average goals allowed by the Americans over the last month they will end the season allowing over 240 goals.


- Coach Martinson has some decisions to make in the near future. Can he get the players he has been calling out for not working hard enough and smart enough to be more responsible defensively and help reduce goals allowed? Fewer turnovers and backchecking harder is the key but too many players don't do it consistently. The other option which is becoming more and more likely is giving up some offense to find players that will play defense. It is too easy to look at Allen's winning percentage (.739) and draw the conclusion this team is good to go for the playoffs. One thing is certain and that is the Americans need to improve defensively. Whether that happens by improved play by the current roster, trades, players assigned by Iowa or a combination of all three remains to be seen. Coach Martinson will not go into the playoffs playing the style of hockey the team is currently playing. One way or another changes will happen.


-  Goaltending is always a big key to winning championships. If you compare team stats this season to the two Kelly Cup seasons they look comparable:

Save Percentage
.911   2019-20
.909   2015-16
.906   2014-15

GAA
3.06   2019-20
2.75   2015-16
2.73   2014-15

What hasn't happened this season is one goalie separating from the rest and taking charge. There was no doubt in the two Kelly Cup championships that Riley Gill was the guy based on his regular season performance and his past playoff success. If Allen is going to be a championship contender this season one of the goalies will need to step up and break away from the group.


- Another key component to a deep playoff run is special teams. Allen struggled early in the season but have really turned around their special teams play as the season has progressed. Over their last 20 games the Allen power play percentage is 26% and that includes seven games Tyler Sheehy was in Iowa. The penalty kill is also much improved recently. In the last six games the penalty kill percentage is 89.5%, giving up just two power play goals while scoring three shorthanded goals. Here are the special team comparisons. You can see the season long percentages this year lag the championship seasons but there is little doubt they do not reflect how the team is now performing.

Power Play Percentage
17.8%   2019-20
21.1%   2015-16
21.9%   2014-15


Penalty Kill Percentage
82.4%   2019-20
86.4%   2015-16
87.5%   2014-15

   
   
DID YOU KNOW: While finishing in the top five in the regular season is almost a must to win the Kelly Cup, finishing first seems like a negative.  Last season Cincinnati followed a long list of teams that have won the regular season championship (Brabham Cup) and failed to win the Kelly Cup. In the 32 year history of the ECHL only three teams have accomplished that feat. Alaska did it three times (2014, 2011, 2006), Cincinnati did it in 2008 and South Carolina in 1997. Here is where the last five Kelly Cup champions finished in points in the regular season.

3rd place - Newfoundland (2018-19)
4th place - Colorado (2017-18)
3rd place - Colorado (2016-17)
5th place - Allen (2015-16)
2nd place - Allen (2014-15)