Battling Adversity - Fight Like You're the Third Monkey Trying to Get on Noah's Ark and It's Raining, Stats Explain Why Allen is in Last Place & Top ECHL Scorers (10 Years)

My plan this morning was to go through all of the ECHL stats and show why Allen has been the worst team in the ECHL this season. I will still do that but decided to start out differently after I saw a quote about fighting through adversity no matter what situation you find yourself facing. After all, having a losing hockey season pales in comparison to the fights many of our friends and family including our Allen Americans friends and family are battling with health issues, relationship issues, children issues, personal issues and a myriad of other issues. The quote I saw was, "Fight like you are the third monkey trying to get on Noah's Ark and it just started raining." So my message this morning as we approach Christmas and other holidays is to stay strong through adversity whether it is following the Allen Americans or in your personal life and remember:

"Always seek out the seed of triumph in every adversity"..... Og Mandino

"Your hardest times often lead to the greatest moment of your life"..... Ziglar Vault

"Believe in yourself and all that you are. Know that there is something inside you that is greater than any obstacle"..... Charles D. Larson

"Real champions fight through diversity"

"You have to fight through some bad days to earn the best days of your life"

"A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, that is teamwork"..... John Wooden

"When you come out of the storm, you won't be the same person who walked in, That's what this storm is all about"..... Haruki Murakami

"Strength does not come from winning. Your struggles develop your strengths. When you go through hardships and decide not to surrender, that is strength"


- I am sure nobody saw this losing season coming and the question I get asked more than any other is what is wrong with the Allen Americans. Is it lack of defense, lack of scoring, poor goaltending, not enough toughness, poor special teams, lack of leadership, too many penalties, too many injuries or many other reasons. The answer is obviously a combination of factors so here are the facts/stats that have led the Americans to have a winning percentage (.269) that is just 40% of Allen's average winning percentage over the last nine seasons (.666).


Goal Scoring: Allen started the season with so many goal scorers the main question was could they play defense but scoring goals was not an issue. At one point the Americans had five or six forwards that led their junior team in scoring with 40 goal scorers and 100 point seasons up and down the lineup. The realty is the team has struggled putting the puck in the net. Allen has been shutout three times, scored one goal four times and two goals five times. The Americans are averaging 2.54 goals per game which ranks them #22 in the league. Compare 2.54 goals per game over the last nine seasons and you can see how much the team is struggling to score.

2009-10:   3.28 (lost in finals)
2010-11:   4.20 (lost in third round)
2011-12:   3.21 (lost in first round)
2012-13:   3.18 (won championship)
2013-14:   3.77 (won championship)
2014-15:   4.05 (won championship
2015-16:   3.08 (won championship)
2016-17:   4.08 (lost in second round)
2017-18:   3.26 (lost in first round)
2018-19:   2.54 (after 26 games)


Team Defense: This was an area of concern at the beginning of the season but has been much worse than predicted. Last season was Allen's worst since joining the ECHL in goals allowed. After allowing 203 or 204 goals in their first three seasons, last season the Americans allowed 232 goals. This season they are on pace to allow a record 285 goals. Allen is allowing an average of 3.96 goals per game which ranks them #27 in the league and it isn't even close. The #26 ranked team is allowing 3.77 goals per game.


Goal Differential: When you are on pace for the worst offensive season in history and the worst defensive season in history goal differential (goals for minus goals against) is off the chart and this stat proves the point. Here are Allen's goal differentials since joining the ECHL. The number for this season is projected for the full season based on the first 26 games.

2014-15:   +89
2015-16:   +18
2016-17:   +91
2017-18:   +3
2018-19:   -102


Special Teams - Allen special teams have historically been excellent but fell off a cliff last season and has been even worse this season. One way to measure overall special teams performance is a stat that combines power play and penalty kill percentages. In the NHL typically 10% of the teams exceed 105% which is considered excellent. The average for all teams is 100% and anything below 100% is considered poor performance by special teams. The Americans special teams were bad last season and have gotten even worse this season. Allen is ranked #22 on the power play and #23 on the penalty kill. Here is the combined total for Allen since they joined the ECHL with the power play and penalty kill percentages in parentheses.

2018-19:   94.7%    (13.4% PP & 81.3% PK)
2017-18:   98.7%    (17.1% PP & 81.6% PK)
2016-17:  108.8%   (24.4% PP & 84.4% PK)
2015-16:  107.5%   (21.1% PP & 86.4% PK)
2014-15:  108.2%   (21.9% PP & 86.3% PK)


Penalties: When you look at average penalty minutes per game Allen is in familiar territory ranked #2 averaging 21.04 penalty minutes per game. However, when you look behind the numbers the makeup of the penalty minutes is very different than in the past. Allen has taken the most minor penalties in the league (156) and given up the most power play opportunities (134). This is not a good stat when you have the #23 ranked penalty kill unit. When it comes to five minute major penalties, most of which are fighting majors, there are only 11 teams with fewer than Allen. The Americans have 13 major penalties compared to Rapid City who is leading with 35. The reason Allen has so few major penalties is they are ranked #22 in fighting majors (10) and five of the 10 fights came in one game. Since joining the ECHL Allen has averaged 75 fighting majors per season. They are on pace to have 28 fighting majors this season. Allen has way fewer major penalties than in the past but they do lead the league in undisciplined penalties such as 10 minute misconducts (7), game misconducts (8) and match penalties (2). There have been only four match penalties in the ECHL all season and the Americans have two of them.


Goaltending: Save percentage is about more than just goalie play as team defense plays a huge role. However, goalies play a huge part in this stat. Allen's team save percentage is the lowest since the Americans joined the ECHL and is below .900 for the first time. Here are the team save percentages by season, The differences may look small but goals allowed between a save percentage of .894 and .910 over the course of a season equates to between 40-45 goals.

2018-19:    .894
2017-18:    .912
2016-17:    .920
2015-16:    .909
2014-15:    .906


Injuries: There is no doubt injuries have played a major role in Allen being in last place. Only two players (Spencer Asuchak & Alex Breton) have played in all 26 games. The Americans have already lost 120-125 player games to injury which is an average of almost five players out of the lineup each game. One of the biggest losses has been Casey Pierro-Zabotel who has been out of the lineup since the beginning of November and it is unknown if and when he will return. Casey has been a top scorer in the ECHL for the last 10 years and plays in all situations for the Americans.


 - You put all of these stats together and it is easy to see why the Americans are in last place. The real challenge is how does the team work through this adversity and get things turned around. There is absolutely no doubt they have the talent to play much better. The question is how hard will they fight to get the job done.




DID YOU KNOW: If you look at cumulative totals over the last 10 seasons (2009-10 to 2018-19) the top ECHL point scorer is Casey Pierro-Zabotel. Three of the top five have played for the Allen Americans. Here is the list:

504 points - Casey Pierro-Zabotel
489 points - Chad Costello
485 points - Trent Daavettila
450 points - Micheal Pelech
393 points - Mathieu Aubin