ECHL Playoff Predictor: It's Thanksgiving - Are the Playoff Teams Already Decided?

 

I hope you all had a Happy Thanksgiving and were able to spend time with family and friends. With the Thanksgiving weekend and leftovers behind us and in my case the sloth like behavior watching too many hockey and football games over. It is time for my "Thanksgiving Day Playoff  Theory" blog which predicts the 16 ECHL playoff teams based on the standings as of today. No need to worry any more, the fate of your favorite team is already decided. It gives new meaning to Black Friday. A little overstated but not by much. 



- I have talked about this in the past after reading numerous articles about the history in the NHL, where data proves somewhere between 75% - 80% of playoff teams are already decided by now. Here is one of the more informative stories about this subject from the Hockey News years ago:  http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/out-of-the-playoffs-december-1-done-like-thanksgiving-dinner

  

- It is strange to think with just 21% of the ECHL season complete, you can predict who will be in the playoffs with close to 80% accuracy. Nothing ventured, nothing gained so here are the playoff teams strictly by the numbers plus where I think the "Thanksgiving Day Playoff Theory" might be wrong. The numbers in parentheses are the current points percentages. Here are your 2023-24 playoff teams (top four teams) plus those currently out of the playoffs.



NORTH DIVISION

• 1. Trois Riviéres (.733)
• 2. Adirondack (.615)
• 3. Norfolk (.563)
• 4. Worcester (.531)
• Newfoundland (.500)
• Maine (.385)
• Reading (.333)
  

The top two in the North Division look pretty solid and the bottom two are a long shot but the middle will likely change. There is little doubt Newfoundland, who is made up of mostly AHL contracted players, will make the playoffs even though the Growlers are on the outside looking in right now. Norfolk hasn't been in the playoffs since the team moved from Bakersfield in 2015-16 so is a likely candidate to fall out of a playoff position. What is different this season is Norfolk has seven NHL/AHL contracted players. Worcester hasn't made the playoffs since 2018 but they have eight NHL/AHL players on the roster. You can be certain the four teams currently in a playoff position will not all make the playoffs.   

SOUTH DIVISION

• 1. Greenville (.875)
• 2. Atlanta (.600)
• 3. Florida (.571)
• 4. Orlando (.571)
• Jacksonville (.533)
• South Carolina (.500)
• Savannah (.367)
  

The South Division has six teams with a points percentage of .500 or above and in playoff territory. Greenville has the best record in the league and is a lock for the playoffs, but the other three playoff spots are up for grabs. Atlanta is in second place at .600 but the Gladiators are in a free fall, losing six of the last seven games after starting the season with eight straight wins. Only Savannah appears out of the playoff picture.

CENTRAL DIVISION

• 1. Toledo (.714)
• 2. Fort Wayne (.607)
• 3. Iowa (.594) 
• 4. Cincinnati (.571)
• Wheeling (.533)
• Kalamazoo (.400)
• Indy (.357)
  

Of all of the divisions the Central is the most likely to stay the same as it is today. Iowa is the wild card since the Heartlanders have finished last in the division since the franchise began 2021-22. Iowa recently won seven straight games and is 8-1-0-1 in the last 10 games. Wheeling (4-6-0-0) and Kalamazoo (3-7-0-0) in the last 10 games have been fading.  

MOUNTAIN DIVISION

• 1. Idaho (.875)
• 2. Kansas City (.765)
• 3. Tulsa (.563)
• 4. Utah (.462)
• Rapid City (.382)
• Wichita (.368)
• Allen (.344)
  

This division is most likely to have different teams in the playoffs from the current four. Idaho and Kansas City are locks for the playoffs. The other five teams will scramble for the final two playoff spots. Last season Allen was in last place at Thanksgiving and finished in second place. After eating crow (chili) last season for predicting at Thanksgiving Allen would miss the playoffs all I will say now is any of the teams currently out of the playoffs (Rapid City, Wichita, Allen) could make the playoffs.      



- History says if you are more than five points out of the fourth playoffs spot at Thanksgiving the chances of making it into the playoffs is slim, less than 10%. Here are the three teams more than five points out of the fourth playoff position:

• 7 points - Maine
• 7 points - Reading
• 6 points - Indy
  

 

- Historically, teams more than five points clear of the final playoff spot in the division at this point can start selling playoff tickets as they rarely miss the playoffs. Three teams are in this category:

• 14 points - Idaho
  
• 12 points - Greenville
• 12 points - Kansas City
   

   

   - Keep in mind this is all done in fun and with just the facts. The playoff teams are the top four by points percentage in each division. I will definitely revisit it at the end of the season to see how many of the 16 teams in playoff positions now, will in fact make the playoffs. If your favorite team is currently out the playoffs, remember even with 80% accuracy, five teams currently outside of a playoff position will make the playoffs.



- The bottom line is most playoffs teams are already decided but as important it is to make the playoffs, it is a myth that once you make the ECHL playoffs any team can win the Kelly Cup. While Florida won the Kelly Cup last season after finishing the regular in 11th place that was a rare exception.  Here is where the last 18 Kelly Cup champions finished during the regular season:

A team doesn't want to finish first since the Brabham Cup (regular season champion) curse has been in effective since 2014. That was the last time a team (Alaska) won both the Brabham Cup and Kelly Cup. The sweet spot for winning the Kelly Cup is to finish between 2nd and 6th during the regular season. 

• 2023 - Florida (11th)
• 2022 - Florida (3rd)
• 2021 - Fort Wayne (5th)
• 2019 - Newfoundland (3rd)
• 2018 - Colorado (4th)
• 2017 - Colorado (3rd)
• 2016 - Allen (6th)
• 2015 - Allen (2nd)
• 2014 - Alaska (1st)
• 2013 - Reading (2nd)
• 2012 - Florida (7th)
• 2011 - Alaska (1st)
• 2010 - Cincinnati (5th)
• 2009 - South Carolina (4th)
• 2008 - Cincinnati (1st)
• 2007 - Idaho (6th)
• 2006 - Alaska (1st)
• 2005 - Trenton (4th) 

 

 

DID YOU KNOW: The list of ECHL teams that have won multiple championships is not very long when you consider the league has been around since 1988 and there have been something like 60 different  teams depending on how you count. Here are the eight teams that have won multiple ECHL championships with winning coaches in parenthesis:

• Alaska Aces - 2006, 2011, 2014  (Davis Payne, Rob Murray, Rob Murray)
  
• South Carolina Stingrays - 1997, 2001, 2009  (Rick Vaive, Rick Adduono, Jared Bednar)
  
• Hampton Roads Admirals - 1991, 1992, 1998  (John Brophy)
  
• Florida Everblades - 2012, 2022, 2023  (Greg Poss, Brad Ralph, Brad Ralph)
  
• Colorado Eagles - 2017, 2018  (Aaron Schneekloth)
  
• Allen Americans - 2015, 2016  (Steve Martinson)
  
• Cincinnati Cyclones - 2008, 2010  (Chuck Weber)
  
• Idaho Steelheads - 2004, 2007  (John Oliver, Derek Laxdal)
  
• Toledo Storm - 1993, 1994  (Chris McSorley)
  

  

 

Allen Comeback Falls Short, OT Loss Game Recap, Video Highlights, 10 Americans with 200 Games Played, PIM Stats and More

 

 The Allen Americans lost in Tulsa last night 6-5 in overtime before a huge crowd of 12,389 on Teddy Bear Toss night at the BOK Center. The game had a lot of similarities to Friday night when Allen won 5-4 in overtime.

• Allen scored the first goal of the game in both games. The Americans record when scoring first is now 3-3-1-0 (.500). Only one ECHL team has a worst record when scoring first.
• Allen had a 2-1 lead after the first period but gave up three unanswered goals in the second period to fall behind 4-2. 
• The Americans came back with a goal at the 15:20 mark of the second period (Spencer Asuchak) and 5:53 mark of the third period (Matt Marcinew) to tie the score 4-4.
• Tulsa took a 5-4 lead but just like Friday night, Colby McAuley tied the score (13:44) to send the game to overtime.
• Allen had the better opportunities in overtime taking four shots to Tulsa's none before Allen's nemesis, Tyler Poulson scored the game winner at the 4:58 mark of overtime. Poulson had five points (3G, 2A) in the two games against his old team.
• Not a surprise Allen was outshot in every period for a total of 47-33. Allen has been out shot in 15 of 16 games thus far this season.
• Special teams fell Tulsa's way last night. Allen was 0-2 on the power play, Tulsa was 1-3.
• The good news is Allen scored five even strength goals after scoring just one in the 5-4 win on Friday.

 

- Goal scorers for Allen were Kris Myllari (5), Ty Fournier (2), Spencer Asuchak (4), Matt Marcinew (8) and Colby McAuley (7). Here are the video highlights:  https://echl.com/videos/allen-americans-vs-tulsa-oilers-nov-25-2023 

- Here are the game recaps with all of the details from both teams:

• Allen Americans: https://allenamericans.com/news/2023/11/americans-earn-a-point-in-overtime-loss
• Tulsa Oilers: https://tulsaoilers.com/news/2023/11/oilers-top-americans-in-overtime-to-flip-script-on-teddy-bear-toss
  

 

- After a hectic schedule including six straight road games the Americans returned home last night taking five of six points this week, The team will have the day off today and will have some time to practice this week since they don't play until Friday against Utah. With so many new players and so little practice time recently this week will be very valuable to coach Costello.

 

- If Allen can get four points this week in its two home games against Utah (Friday) and Wichita (Saturday) the Americans will be right back in the playoff race. It won't be easy given Allen has not won a home game this season (0-5-0-0).  

 

OTHER COMMENTS

 - Congrats to Spencer Asuchak who played in his 500th regular season game last night for the Allen Americans. He has also played in 99 playoff games for the Americans. Talk about dominating a stat, check this one out. Only 10 players in the history of the Allen Americans franchise have reached 200 regular season games played and all are household names:

• 500 - Spencer Asuchak
• 282 - Chad Costello
• 247 - Tyler Ludwig
• 238 - Jarret Lukin
• 229 - Mike Berube
• 228 - Gary Steffes
• 222 - David Makowski
• 215 - Brian McMillin
• 213 - Eric Roy
• 205 - Joel Chouinard

If Kris Myllari stays healthy he could be in the top five on this list by the end of this season.  

- Scoring stats worth noting:

• Kris Myllari - Kris had goals in all three games this week and has points in nine of the last 10 games, a total of 14 points (5G, 9A).
• Spencer Asuchak had points in all three games this week (2G, 2A). He has four goals in the last seven games.
• Nolan Orzeck played in his first three games for Allen this week, had assists in all three.
• Hank Crone has been back with the Allen Americans for six games and has points in all six. A total of 10 points (2g, 8A).

- In the Mountain Division last night Rapid City, Kansas City, Utah and Allen (OT) lost while Tulsa, Idaho and Wichita won. Here are the latest points percentages:

 

• .875 - Idaho
• .765 - Kansas City
• .533 - Tulsa
• .462 - Utah
• .382 - Rapid City
• .361 - Wichita
• .344 - Allen

- The Americans had a successful week earning five of the possible six points and certainly fielded a stronger lineup with all of the recent acquisitions. What remains to be seen is whether this revamped lineup can become a better defensive team. In the Americans last six games they have given up 29 goals  (6,4,3,5,5,6) and average of 4.83 goals per game which is higher than the season long average of 4.75. The Americans are last in the league in shots allowed (44.88) and goals allowed (4.75). As a comparison Kansas City allows 19 fewer shots and 2.1 fewer goals per game than the Americans. If Allen's revamped lineup can't reduce the number of shots and goals allowed the Americans will not be able to compete against the top teams in the division. 

 

 

- Current points percentages and record for Allen's affiliates: 

 

Allen - .344 (5-10-1-0) last place Mountain Division

Belleville - .467 (6-7-1-1) 6th place in 7 team North Division

Ottawa - .500 (8-8-0-0) last place in Atlantic Division  

 

 

DID YOU KNOW: Two ECHL teams, Norfolk and Maine are averaging over 19 penalty minutes per game but six teams are averaging fewer than 10 penalty minutes per game. Here are the bottom six teams in average penalty minutes with points percentage in parenthesis. Some excellent teams on this list and some outside the playoffs.

 

7.53 - Kansas City (.765)

7.60 - Jacksonville (.533)

8.31 - Adirondack (.615)

9.08 - Utah (.462)

9.19 - Greenville (.875)

9.88 - Rapid City (.382)

 

  

Allen Erases 4-1 Deficit, Wins in OT, Game Recap, Video Highlights, Rematch Preview, Allen Rises in Standings, ECHL Top Scoring Defensemen and More

 

If you wrote a script that matched Allen Americans 5-4 overtime win in Tulsa last night it would be rejected as being unrealistic. A big third period comeback and quick overtime goal sent a crowd of 5432 of mostly Tulsa fans home in disbelief. Here is a partial list of the ups and downs and wacky stats from the game.

• Allen scored the first goal of the game for the first time in five games.
• Tulsa scored two goals on its first three shots of the game.
  
• Tulsa totaled three unanswered goals to take a 3-1 lead into the first intermission.
• Tulsa was undefeated when leading after the first period.
• Tulsa had 18 second period shots but scored just one goal.
• Allen had two second period shots, the fewest second period shots in the ECHL this season.
• Tulsa had a 4-1 lead after the second period.
• Allen was 0-7 when trailing after the second period.
• Tulsa was 5-0 when leading after the second period.
• Allen outscored Tulsa 3-0 in the third period and outshot the Oilers 18-9.
• Allen's third period goal differential prior to last night was -11 (13 goals for, 25 against)
• Allen tied the score 4-4 with 23.8 seconds remaining in the game.
• Allen was 3-5 on the power play plus scored the OT game winner on a delayed penalty.
• Allen took two penalties in the game, Tulsa took six. 

 - It is hard to imagine a bigger confidence booster for the Americans than the comeback victory last night, playing their first game without captain Colton Hargrove. The win was Allen's first back to back win of the season. The Americans improved their road record to 5-5-0-0.

- Goal scorers for Allen were Justin Allen (2), Colby McAuley (5,6), Johnny Walker (1) and Kris Myllari (4). William Provost, playing his first game for the Americans and Hank Crone both had three assists. Here are the video highlights: https://echl.com/videos/allen-americans-vs-tulsa-oilers-nov-24-2023

 

- Here are the game recaps from both teams with goal by goals descriptions:

• Allen Americans: https://allenamericans.com/news/2023/11/americans-complete-amazing-comeback 
• Tulsa Oilers: https://tulsaoilers.com/news/2023/11/americans-power-play-downs-oilers-in-overtime

 

- Tulsa had two chances to win the game at the end of regulation. Mark Sinclair was leaving the ice for an extra attacker when Tulsa gained control of the puck and shot it down the ice. Sinclair had to change directions and dive to deflect the puck. He was completely outstretched and barely deflected the puck with the tip of his stick between the circles. Then Tulsa had a 2-on-1 and shot the puck over the empty net. Those two missed opportunities allowed Colby McAuley to tie the game with 23.8 seconds remaining.

 

- Plenty of odd stats out of this game. Allen's two shots in the second period followed by 18 in the third period has to top the list. Another is the fact Allen and Tulsa have been involved in just two overtime games this season, both against each other, both in Tulsa and the Americans won both, 6-5 and 5-4.

 

- Another win tonight would be huge for the Americans as they wrap up their six game road trip. Eight of the 17 skaters on the ice last night have played five or fewer games with the Americans including two playing their first last night. Allen totaled 15 points (5G, 10A) in the game. 67% of the points (2G, 8A) came from the new players. Some of these players haven't even practiced with the team. The team should be full of confidence after the comeback win last night. Can they build on that confidence tonight?

 

- Special teams were the difference maker last night with Allen scoring four of its five goals with an extra attacker. Allen was officially 3-5 on the power play goal and scored the overtime goal on a delayed penalty. Allen gave up just one power play opportunity to Tulsa which they killed. You couldn't ask for better special teams play but it is unlikely it can be repeated tonight. 

 

- Allen's road power play percentage rose to 26.2% while Tulsa's home power play percentage dropped to 12.5%. Allen's road penalty kill percentage rose to 84.1% while Tulsa's dropped to 64.5% (the worst in the league). Despite the big advantage the Americans have on special teams the game tonight will likely be decided by even strength goals. The Americans will have to do a better job when even strength than they did last night. Allen was outscored 4-1 on even strength goals. 

 

- Keys to the game tonight:

• Consistency, play a full 60 minutes rather than 25 like last night.
• Keep rolling on special teams.
• Improve even strength play.
  
• A good start. 
• Hold Tulsa to less than 40 shots.
   

 

- The referee scheduled tonight is #8 Tyler Hascall who was the referee last night and in Wichita on Wednesday. Allen rarely takes fewer penalties than its opponent. On the recent trip to Idaho, Allen was called for more penalties in all three game and the total was 22-15. In Wichita the penalties were 8-4 in favor of Allen and last night the penalties were 6-2 in favor of Allen. Penalties have a way of evening out (regressing to the mean) and over the last two games Hascall has called 14 on the opponents and just six on Allen. Odds are that trend will not continue tonight which is why the Americans must be better even strength.      

 

 

OTHER COMMENTS

- With a win last night Allen climbed out of last place in the Mountain Division by points percentage which is the only way to compare teams since games played varies from 12 (Utah) to 17 (Wichita). Idaho and Kansas City both won last night and are threatening to run off and hide when you consider no other team in the division has a points percentage above .500. Here are the current standings: 

• .867 - Idaho
• .813 - Kansas City
• .500 - Tulsa
• .500 - Utah
• .406 - Rapid City
• .333 - Allen
• .324 - Wichita

 

- Hank Crone has only played five games with the Americans but has already climbed up to fifth in points in the team. Hank has nine points (2G, 7A) and leads the team in points per game at 1.80. Last season he led the league in points (105) and points per game average (1.52).  

- After 197 of 1008 ECHL games this season, average attendance is 4607 ranging from 8354 (Jacksonville) to 1777 (Iowa). For all of last season the average attendance was 4629 ranging from 7749 (Jacksonville) to 1851 (Iowa). 

- There are 12 games on tap in the ECHL tonight. All seven Mountain Division teams are in action. Here is the ECHL Today with all of the previews: https://echl.com/news/2023/11/echl-today-nov-25

 

- Congrats to former Allen Americans player Josh Brittain and his wife Rhiannon who just announced  they are expecting a baby.

 

 

DID YOU KNOW: Stick taps to the top four ECHL defensemen in points who are all averaging 1.00+ points per game. Here are the leaders with average points per game in parenthesis:

 

21 points - Jalen Smereck, Cincinnati(1.62)

16 points - Kris Myllari, Allen (1.07)

16 points - *Jonny Tychonick, Newfoundland (1.00)

15 points - Ole Julian Bjorgvik-Holm, Cincinnati (1.25)

 

*Rookie

    

Allen vs Tulsa Series Preview, Lineup Changes, ECHL Points Leaders with Projected Points and More

 

 After a day off in Tulsa for Thanksgiving the Allen Americans are back in action with games tonight and tomorrow night against the Oilers. The Allen schedule against Tulsa this season is unusual. It is not unusual that the teams will play 16 times, but 10 of the 16 will be at the CUTX Event Center. What is even more strange is after this weekend Allen has only two road games left in Tulsa. They will travel to Tulsa on February 16 and the last day of the season on April 14. Not the case at home where Tulsa will be the opponent in 32% (10 of 31) of Allen's remaining homes games.

 

-  Tonight will be the third game between Allen and Tulsa this season. They played twice at the beginning of  November and split the games. Allen won the first game 6-5 in overtime (Matt Marcinew with the game winner). The next night Tulsa won 5-1. Here are the cumulative stats for the two games:

• Allen was outscored 10-7
• Allen was outshot 97-56
• Allen was 1-5 (20%) on the power play
• Tulsa was 2-9 (22.2%) on the power play
• Allen took 10 penalties for 47 minutes (37 minutes by Mikael Robidoux)
  
• Tulsa took 6 penalties for 12 minutes
• Tulsa scored first in both games

 

-  In the overtime game that the Americans won they were outshot 48-27 and Tulsa made a big comeback after trailing 5-2. Tulsa took a 2-0 lead before Allen scored five straight goals. Tulsa came back from the 5-2 deficit and tied the score 5-5 with less than two minutes remaining in the game. Marcinew scored the game winner just 58 seconds into the overtime. 

 

- As always special teams will play a big role in this two game series. Allen is #2 in penalty minutes per game (19.36) while Tulsa is #22 averaging 10.15 penalty minutes per game. Tulsa actually has more five minute major penalties than Allen (6 vs 5) but there is a big difference in minor penalties. Allen has taken 83 minor penalties compared to just 51 for Tulsa. Here are the special teams percentages:

• Power Play
• 21.4% - Allen's overall  percentage
• 18.4% - Tulsa's overall percentage
• 21.6% - Allen's road percentage
• 13.0% - Tulsa's home percentage

• Penalty Kill
• 77.5% - Allen's overall percentage
• 77.5% - Tulsa's overall percentage
• 83.7% - Allen's road percentage
• 69.2% - Tulsa's home percentage

 - Looking at the stats above the overall percentages are close but if you compare Allen's road numbers to Tulsa's home numbers a big advantage goes to the Americans. Allen has the better power play (21.6% vs 13.0%) and penalty kill (83.7% vs 69.2%). 

 

- Playing with a lead is often emphasized with good reason. Here are some stats for both teams that make the point very well:

• ALLEN
• 3-0-0-0: Leading after 1st period
• 4-1-0-0: Leading after 2nd period
• 0-6-0-0: Tied after 1st period
• 0-2-0-0: Tied after 2nd period
• 1-4-0-0: Trailing after 1st period
• 0-7-0-0: Trailing after 2nd period

• TULSA
• 3-0-0-0: Leading after 1st period
• 5-0-0-0: Leading after 2nd period
• 2-1-0-0: Tied after 1st period
• 0-0-0-0: Tied after 2nd period
• 1-5-1-0: Trailing after 1st period
• 1-6-1-0: Trailing after 2nd period

It is very clear from the stats above the importance of playing with the lead, especially for the Americans. In three of Allen's four wins this season the Americans had the lead after the first period and in all four wins they led after the second period.

 

- Allen will have eight or nine players in the lineup tonight that were not in the lineup when the Americans played the Oilers at the beginning of  November. Hopefully they will be able to carryover the winning ways from the Wichita game on Wednesday. Forward William Provost, who was acquired from Fort Wayne in the Chad Butcher trade, will be in the lineup tonight wearing #9. There will also be another new forward in the lineup tonight, Johnny Walker who just returned from Europe (EIHL) where he played for Dundee.

 

- Allen Americans lineup tonight vs Tulsa:

Forwards

Crone-Marcinew-McAuley

Provost-Asuchak-Walker

Puricelli-Bakich-Brodzinski

Fournier

Defensemen

Myllari-Orzeck

Allen-Gatenby

Jarvis-Williams

Demin

 

Goalies

Sinclair

Perry (backup)

 

 

- A player to keep an eye on tonight is Tulsa's leading scorer,  #15 Eddie Matsushima. In the two games in November he lit up the Americans for five points (2G, 3A). On Wednesday in Tulsa's 3-2 win over Kansas City, Matsushima had three points (1G, 2A) and his goal was the game winning goal. 

 

- The referee scheduled tonight is #8 Tyler Hascall. He was the referee in Wichita on Wednesday. It was a rare night when Allen was called for fewer penalties (4) than Wichita (8). Remember, he is the referee that called zero penalties in the entire game in an Allen vs Toledo game two years ago.    

 

OTHER COMMENTS

- There was one game in the ECHL on Thanksgiving, Fort Wayne beat Iowa 4-3 in a shootout. Iowa had won seven straight games before losing to the Komets. Iowa's streak of eight games earning a point is still intact and the longest in the league. Chad Butcher played his first game for Fort Wayne since being traded from Allen. His box score was all zeros and he was -1. I saw this post from Justin Cohn quoting Fort Wayne coach Jesse Kallechy on Butcher's debut. "He traveled all day yesterday and got in a 30 minute practice. I like what he brings. He skates well, brings good energy and I trusted him enough to play him. And he is only going to get  more comfortable."

- It is a big night around the ECHL with 13 games on the schedule. All seven Mountain Division teams will play. In addition to Allen at Tulsa, Wichita is at Kansas City, Idaho is at Rapid City and Newfoundland is at Utah. If Allen can win tonight they will definitely make some progress in the standings. Here is the ECHL Today previewing all 13 games: https://echl.com/news/2023/11/echl-today-nov-24

 

- No news on Colton Hargrove but it certainly doesn't sound good. Coach Costello's quote in the Americans recap press release after the win in Wichita says in part, "It was a tough way to win the game. It came at a price. Colton Hargrove leaving the game with a serious injury, and knowing he is going to be out for a lengthy period. The win is bittersweet." That quote tells you all you need to know about the seriousness of Hargrove's injury. Costello told me they will have more details later after the results of tests are known.

 

DID YOU KNOW: It is fun to play the what if game when looking at points. The ECHL Stats post today is such an exercise. FYI, Allen's leading scorer, Matt Marcinew, is on pace to have 82 points this season and Hank Crone is on pace for 93 points despite missing the first 10 games of the season. 

Last season the ECHL points leader, Hank Crone (Allen) had 105 points. It is still early in the 2023-24 season but five players already have 20+ points & are on pace to score more than 105 points. To do so they would have to continue their current pace the entire season and play every remaining game which is a tall task. Odds of any ECHL player exceeding 105 points this season are very slim. Here are the leading point scorers with projected points based on current pace in parenthesis:

 

 

POINT LEADERS

22 - Max Andreev, KC, (106)

21 - Mark Rassell, IDH, (108)

21 - Wade Murphy, IDH, (108)

21 - Mitchell Fossier, ATL, (117)

20 - Jalen Smereck, CIN, (120)

Allen Snaps Losing Streak, Hargrove Injured, Game Recaps, Video Highlights, Costello Comments, Myles Jack Unretires, ECHL Streaks and More

 

It was a big win and a big loss for the Allen Americans last night in Wichita. The Americans won the game 5-3 but lost their captain, Colton Hargrove to a leg injury. Hargorve needed help getting off the ice and it definitely didn't look good.

 

-  It was an inspiring win for the Americans who snapped a six game losing streak while playing without their captain for most of the game. The team was reduced to just eight forwards plus defensemen Matt Sredl upfront. Six players took the ice last night with three or fewer games played for the Americans. Defensemen Joe Gatenby and Nolan Oezeck were playing in their first game for Allen.

 

- Allen gave up the first and only goal on the opening period on a Thunder power play which was not a good sign. Allen had not won a game all season when trailing after the first period (0-4) until last might. The team seemed inspired after Hargrove left with his injury. They outshot Wichita 14-10 in the first period and goalie Mark Sinclair looked great in goal. Allen had two 5-on-3 opportunities in the first period, one was 37 seconds and the other 1:22 (10 seconds carried over to the 2nd period) but could not convert. It was a pattern for Allen throughout the game as the power play was 1-7.

 

- Facing a 1-0 deficit, Allen fought back in the second period with two unanswered goals to take a 2-1 lead into the second intermission. The goal scorers were Solag Bakich (2) and Spencer Asuchak (3). The Americans showed a lot of grit in the third period. Allen took a 3-1 lead early in the period when Hank Crone scored his second goal since joining the Americans. He had hit the post twice earlier in the game. Just when it looked like Allen would come away with a big win Wichita scored back to back goals to tie the score 3-3. It did not look good at that point given Allen was playing shorthanded and some players were racking up big minutes. 

 

- The heroics started with Matt Marcinew stealing the puck and depositing it in the back of the net on a bang-bang play. Marcinew had gone down hard into the boards several times during the game so it was good to see him get the games winner on his team leading seventh goal of the season. Kris Myllari scored an empty net goal that went the length of the ice with 45 seconds remaining to seal the victory. 

 

- Here are some miscellaneous stats of interest:

• Allen held Wichita to under 40 shots (34). The fewest shots allowed all season and just the second time the Americans have held an opponent under 40 shots.
• Allen struggled on the power play 1-7 and didn't convert on two 5-on-3 opportunities.
  
• Allen stayed out of the penalty box taking just four penalties and allowing only two power plays. 
• Allen improved its road record to 4-5-0-0
• Allen gave up the first goal of the game for the ninth time in 14 games.
• Mark Sinclair had his fewest saves of the season (31). He is ranked  #9 in the league in minutes played (477) but #1 in the league in saves (360).
• Kris Myllari had a goal and an assist last night and continues to lead all ECHL players in power play points (11) and assists (9). 
• Hank Crone has averaged 1.50 points per game since returning to Allen. He has six points (2G, 4A) in four games. 

 

- Here are the game recaps from both teams:

• Allen Americans:  https://allenamericans.com/news/2023/11/americans-end-losing-streak 
• Wichita Thunder: https://wichitathunder.com/news/2023/11/thunder-downed-by-americans-on-thanksgiving-eve 

 

- Here are the video highlights with all of the goals and some great saves:  https://echl.com/videos/allen-americans-vs-wichita-thunder-nov-22-2023

 

- I had a chance to check in with coach Costello after the game to get his thoughts. Here is what he had to say. The first quote is from the Allen Americans game recap but bears repeating: 

"It was a tough way to win the game. It came at a price. Colton Hargrove leaving the game with a serious injury, and knowing he is going to be out for a lengthy period. The win is bittersweet.  

"Sinclair was great and steady in the net which helped a lot."

"I thought their first goal was clearly scored with a kicking motion, but the players did a good job of staying focused after it was ruled a goal."

"With Hargrove's injury we were playing short. Everyone was competing and contributed tonight."

"Will we not know the extent of Hargrove's injury until later in the week."

"It was nice to see smiles in the locker room after the big win."

"Hopefully this will lead to more consistent success going forward."

"Happy Thanksgiving to everyone."   

 

OTHER COMMENTS

 - The Americans traveled to Tulsa after the game last night and will have the day off today and enjoy a team Thanksgiving dinner together. Tulsa beat Kansas City 3-2 at home last night and will be waiting for the Americans. Tulsa lost the first two games of the three game series against the Mavericks. Tulsa has been playing good hockey. Last week they swept three game in Rapid City. 

The games against Tulsa tomorrow night and Saturday night will be a real test for Allen to show the team is back on track despite having eight players out with injuries. William Provost (#9) met the team in Tulsa and as I mentioned yesterday, it is possible Coach Costello could add another forward and get a goalie assigned before the weekend is completed.   

 

 - You probably saw the news that Allen Americans owner Myles Jack unretired and signed with the Pittsburgh Steelers earlier this week. Here is the story if you haven't seen it. https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2023/11/20/mike-tomlin-eric-rowe-elijah-walker/stories/202311200095

I have had several questions what this means for the Allen Americans since Myles was very involved with the team. I reached out to team President, Jonny Mydra and this is what he had to say, "Myles will do his best to be involved from a distance, but his mother, LJ, will take an even more active role than already planned. She will take over some of the things Myles was doing. She will be in the office and at the arena often."

 

 - After the games last night there are just three teams remaining with points percentages above .800 and two of them are in the Mountain Division. Only two teams have point percentages in the .700's and three in the .600's. Here is the list of the top eight teams.

• .857 - Idaho
• .857 - Greenville 
• .800 - Kansas City
• .769 - Trois Riviéres
• .750 - Toledo
• .682 - Adirondack
• .615 - Atlanta
• .615 - Iowa

- Four ECHL players have already hit double digits in goals scored. All are on pace to score 40+ goals this season. The top goal scorers:

• 11 goals - Mark Rassell, Idaho
• 10 goals - Wade Murphy, Idaho
• 10 goals - Brandon Hawkins, Toledo
• 10 goals - Ryan Chyzowski, Reading

- There is one Thanksgiving game on the scheduled today. Iowa, with its seven game win streak, will be in Fort Wayne to take on the Komets. Here is the ECHL Today with a preview:  https://echl.com/news/2023/11/echl-today-nov-23

DID YOU KNOW: Today's ECHL stats post is about streaks. With the win last night Allen avoided being on this list of longest current ECHL winning and losing streaks.. 

 

STREAK DIARY

- No Surprise: The two best teams in the ECHL, with matching .857 points percentage, Greenville and Idaho, have 5 game win streaks.

 

- Big Surprise: Iowa lost its first 6 games of the season and was in the all to familiar last place in the division. The Heartlanders are now on a 7 game win streak, longest current win streak in the ECHL. They have climbed from last place to second place in the division.

 

- Biggest Surprise: Atlanta won its first 8 games of the season, tied for second all-time for wins to start the season. The Gladiators are now on a 5 game losing streak. They have gone from a league best 1.000 points percentage to .615 in just 10 days.

- I want to close today by wishing every one a Happy Thanksgiving. Hopefully you are able to spend time with friends and family. Because my mom was a nurse and daughter is a nurse a special thanks to all those that have to work today like health care workers and first responders. I also hope you take comfort in great memories if you have lost family or friends this year. May your day be filled with great friends, great family, great food and great times. Happy Thanksgiving

Allen vs Wichita Preview, Allen's Revamped Defense, ECHL Shot Leaders and More

 

Tonight starts a big week for the Allen Americans as they try to snap a six game losing streak. After losing three straight against a team with a .857 points percentage (Kansas City) and three straight against a team with a .846 points percentage, this week the American plays teams with a .367 (Wichita) and .458 (Tulsa) point percentage. Allen will play Wichita tonight (6:05 pm CST)) and Tulsa on Friday and Saturday (7:05 CST)

 

- It won't be easy for the Americans when you consider Allen has more players on IR (7) than any other team in the ECHL. The Americans also have fewer players assigned by its affiliate (1) than any team in the ECHL. Allen also has one player (Hank Crone) assigned by the Chicago Wolves. As a reminder here are the current updated stats for Allen's opponents this week:

• Wichita  - one player on IR, two players assigned by affiliate  
• Tulsa - three players on IR, seven players assigned by affiliate 

 

- The week starts in Wichita tonight where Allen will take on the Thunder for the first time this season. Uncharacteristically, Allen and Wichita will play each other only nine times this season and six of the nine games will be in Wichita.

 

- Here is a stats comparison between Allen and Wichita:

• Overall Record
• 3-10-0-0: Allen
• 5-9-1-0: Wichita 

• Average Goals For
• 2.7: Allen
• 3.3: Wichita

• Average Goals Against
• 4.8: Allen
• 4.1: Wichita

• Average Shots For
• 28.0: Allen
• 30.1: Wichita

• Average Shots Against
• 45.8: Allen
• 37.0: Wichita

• Power Play Percentage
• 22.4%: Allen
• 23.6%: Wichita

• Penalty Kill Percentage
• 78.3%: Allen
• 75.4%: Wichita

- The stats above show these teams are similar though Wichita has a slight edge in most. Here is how Allen and Wichita have done against common opponents. Neither team has fared well against the top two teams in the Mountain Division:

• Idaho
• 1-4-0-0: Allen
• 0-2-1-0: Wichita

• Kansas City
• 0-3-0-0: Allen
• 0-3-0-0: Wichita 

 

- Scoring first is typically a good indicator of  the team that will win the game, close to 75% of the time it is successful. Not the case with Allen who is 2-3-0-0 when scoring first and Wichita who is 3-3-0-0 when scoring first. While scoring first hasn't been a good indicator a first period lead has been. Allen is 3-0 when leading after the first period, Wichita is 3-1.

 

- When looking at special teams it is worthwhile looking at home vs road stats. Allen has just three wins this season, but they all came on the road. The Americans have a better power play percentage on the road (23.3% vs 21.1%) and a much better penalty kill percentage on the road (85.4% vs 67.9%). Wichita's home power play percentage is 24.1% and home penalty kill percentage is 76.7%. 

 

-  The Allen lineup will have a new look tonight with all of the roster changes, especially on defense. Ten players that were on the ice for opening night on October 20 will not be on the ice tonight. It is expected the Americans will have recently acquired defensemen Joe Gatenby (#16) and Nolan Orzeck (#44) in the lineup for the first time. Here is a list of other players recently added to the roster with games played for Allen.

• Hank Crone, F - 3 games
• Andrew Jarvis, D - 2 games
• Justin Allen, D - 3 games
• Solag Bakich, F - 3 games

 

- Allen will be missing Chad Butcher who is now with Fort Wayne. The forward acquired in the Butcher trade, William Provost (#9), is expected to meet the team in Tulsa. As I mentioned yesterday, it is possible Coach Costello could add another forward and get a goalie assigned before the weekend is completed. 

 

- The referee schedule tonight is #8 Tyler Hascall. He tends to let the teams play even though in any Allen vs Wichita game predicting low penalty minutes is fools gold. You may remember a road game on March 25, 2022 when the Americans beat Toledo 4-3 while being outshot 44-20. Tyler Hascall was the referee that night and had the very rare no penalty game. 

 

- Here is a game preview/ weekly update from both teams:

• Allen Americans: https://allenamericans.com/news/2023/11/early-start-tonight-in-wichita
• Wichita Thunder: https://wichitathunder.com/news/2023/11/thunder-weekly-november-21-2023
  

 

OTHER COMMENTS

- Atlanta was red hot when it beat Allen twice (6-3, 6-0) early in the season The Gladiators went on to win their first eight games, which is second all-time for wins to start a season. Atlanta has fallen on hard times recently losing four straight games. Last season Worcester set the all-time record for wins to start the season (9) and ended up missing the playoffs. Atlanta plays Greenville, who has a record of 11-2-0-0, at home tonight.

 

- The ECHL daily report has a section for overall stats leaders. Two Allen Americans are among the leaders:

• Mikael Robidoux is second in penalty minutes (56)
• Kris Myllari is first in power play points (10)
• Kris Myllari is first in power play assists (8)   

 

- There are 11 games in the ECHL tonight. The Mountain Division's two stalwarts are both on the road. Kansas City takes its 8-0 road record to Tulsa and Idaho takes its 4-1 road record to Rapid City. The points percentage gap between Idaho and Kansas City (.857 & .856) and the rest of the division (.464 to .231) is about to get insurmountable if the rest of the division can't slow down the top two. Here is the ECHL Today with the previews on all of the games: https://echl.com/news/2023/11/echl-today-nov-22

 

-  If Kansas City wins tonight in Tulsa the Mavericks will tie the all-time record for road wins to start a season. The record of nine games was set by Newfoundland in 2021.

 

DID YOU KNOW: The ECHL Stats post today is about the shot leaders in the league. Matt Marcinew leads the Americans in shots with 51 and has a 15.8% shooting percentage.

ECHL leaders in shots including shooting percentage in parenthesis. Note the difference in shooting percentages. Some players do a lot better job in converting shots into goals:

 

59 shots: Brandon Hawkins, Toledo (16.9%)

58 shots: *Keaton Mastrodonato, Idaho (12.1%)

56 shots: Alex Whelan, Atlanta (14.3%)

55 shots: Jacob Hayhurst, Kansas City (9.1%)

54 shots: Mark Rassell, Idaho (18.5%)

54 shots: Patrick Curry Kansas City (5.6%)

 

*Rookie

 

 

Allen Americans Roster Update, My Take on Allen Season, Gatenby and Provost Player Profiles, Active Rosters Reduced to 20 and More

 The Americans had a short respite from the road, but head out today to continue playing road games. By the middle of  December, Allen will have played six straight road games followed by two home games followed by six straight road games. The Americans headed to Wichita by bus today whee they will play the Thunder tomorrow night at 6:05 pm. After the game Allen will climb back on the bus and drive to Tulsa where they will celebrate Thanksgiving with the day off. The Americans will play the Oilers Friday and Saturday night (7:05 pm). Too bad the team couldn't drive home after the game tomorrow night, spend Thanksgiving with friends and family and drive to Tulsa on Friday. Assume it was a cost considerations that made the decision. 

 

- I will have an Allen vs Wichita game preview tomorrow but want to talk about the roster changes that you saw in transactions yesterday. In case you haven't seen the transactions here are the players involved:

• Brayden Crowder, D (released)
• Nolan Orzeck, D ( added to active roster, placed on reserve)
• Colton Hargrove, F (placed on reserve)
• Justin Allen, D (activated from reserve)
• Dalton Gally, D (placed on injured reserve effective 11/16)
• Chad Butcher, F (traded to Fort Wayne)
• Joe Gatenby, D (acquired in trade from Fort Wayne)
• William Provost, F (acquired in trade from Fort Wayne) 

- Remember players can move off and on reserve on a daily basis so don't read anything into the players on reserve as they can be activated today or tomorrow. I assume this is a move to manage the salary cap.

- Chad Butcher is a hard working, play making center who is well liked in the Allen locker room, by the coaches and the fans. It is always difficult to see a player like Chad traded. Fort Wayne needed a center and Allen was looking for help at defense. The Komets have four AHL contracted defensemen on the roster and also just got back another defensemen that had been loaned to the AHL. Here is a player profile on the two players acquired in the trade.

 

 

Joe Gatenby

 

- JOE GATENBY: Joe is a 6'0" and 190 pound, 26 year old, right shot defenseman in his second pro season. He is one of those mature players that had a full junior career in the WHL followed by a collegiate career at the University of New Brunswick. He played six pro games for Atlanta after his junior career and before enrolling in college, His degree is in  Business Administration (Finance). His academic achievements are incredible, including a perfect GPA and top academic awards across all of Canada. Check out this article that talks about Gatenby's achievements. https://goredsgo.ca/sports/mice/2021-22/releases/gatenbytop8

Gatenby's career stats:

• WHL -  317 games, 141 points (25G, 116A), 219 PIM, +84
• College - 83 games, 41 points (8G, 33A), 62 PIM, +59
• ECHL - 82 games, 33 points (8G, 25A), 30 PIM, +23

Gatenby has attended prospect and rookies camps with NHL's San Jose Sharks, Buffalo Sabres and Chicago Blackhawks. Here is a video interview from nine years ago when Gatenby was playing junior hockey in the WHL for his hometown team, Kelowna Rockets. Very well spoken as a 17 year old.

 

 

 

 

 

William Provost

 

- WILLIAM PROVOST:  Rookie William Provost is a 6'0" and 194 pound, 21 year old, left shot forward who played his junior career in the QMJHL where he had 133 points (55G, 78A). William was a first round draft choice, #13 overall, by the Val-d'Or Foreurs in the 2018 QMJHL draft. Last season, his final QMJHL season, he had 68 points (34G, 34A) in 66 games and led his team in points, goals and assists. After he finished his junior career last season he signed with Fort Wayne for the last six games of the season and tallied five points (1G,4A). He has played sparingly this season, just three games and two assists. Here is a video of  Provost scoring a hat trick last season: 

 - Here is my take on where Allen stands today given its record of 3-10-0-0. It would be easy to point to the tough schedule, seven players on injured reserve and little help from Belleville to justify the poor start. There is little doubt in my mind if  Rapid City, Tulsa, Wichita or Utah had played 11 of its first 13 games against Atlanta, Idaho and Kansas City they would have losing records and be in last place. Here are a couple of other stats comparing what appears to by five teams battling for two play off spots. Clearly Allen has been at a disadvantage with more than the schedule:

• Players currently on injured reserve 
• 7 - Allen
• 3 - Tulsa
• 2 - Rapid City
• 2 - Utah
  
• 1 - Wichita

• NHL/AHL contracted players currently assigned by affiliate
• 1 - Allen (plus one from non-affiliate)
• 2 - Wichita
• 5 - Rapid City
• 7 - Utah
• 8 - Tulsa

Coach Costello could just wait for injured players to return and Belleville/Ottawa to get healthy and send more players, but he is doing everything he can to fix things right now. I expect you will see three recently acquired defensemen in the lineup on this road trip. Justin Allen, Nolan Orzeck and Joe Gatenby could all play tomorrow night.

This won't be the end of the roster changes for the week. It is possible Belleville could send a goalie and Costello is talking to other players. Stay tuned.

 

- Anyone who is already writing off this season needs to keep in mind Allen has one less win than Utah, two fewer than Wichita and Tulsa, and three fewer than Rapid City. The race for a playoff spot is just beginning. Take it from a crow eating expert, don't count the Allen Americans out.

DID YOU KNOW: As of last Sunday ECHL active roster limit was reduced from 21 to 20 players. Weekly salary cap was reduced from $14,870 to $14,350, an average of $718 per week per player. ECHL salaries range from $550 per week to $1600 per week. Teams typically have 2-4 players making $1000+ per week.

 

Allen Swept, Game Recap, Video Highlights, Costello Comments, Week Ahead, Failure Quotes, Best Defensive Teams and More

 

The Allen Americans finished their three game seines in Idaho last night the same way it started, with a lopsided loss to the Steelheads. Allen gave up 45 shots and lost 5-2 before another sellout crowd of 5197 at the Idaho Central Arena. 

- I could repost the blog from Friday night and it would be very close to the loss last night. 

• The score was tied after the first period  (1-1) even though Allen was out shot badly (19-7).
• Idaho scored four unanswered goals in the second period with three of them coming in just over two minutes and the final two just 18 seconds apart.
• Allen scored a late goal (18.16) to make the final score 5-2.

- The final stats for the three games series tell you just how poorly the Americans  played:

• 1.67 - Average goals scored
• 5.33 - Average goals allowed
• 31.7 - Average shots taken
• 50.7 - Average shots allowed
• 0 - 2nd period goals scored
• 9 - 2nd period goals allowed
• 55 - Penalty minutes taken (Allen)
  
• 37 - Penalty minutes taken (Idaho)

- Goal scorers for Allen were Chad Butcher (1) and Colton Hargrove (6). Kris Myllari assisted on Hargrove's power play goal. Kris leads the ECHL in power play assists (8) and power play points (10). Hargrove is tied for second in the league in power play points (8).  Here are the video highlights with all of the goals:  https://echl.com/videos/allen-americans-vs-idaho-steelheads-nov-18-2023

- Here are the game recaps from both teams:

• Allen Americans: https://allenamericans.com/news/2023/11/americans-swept-by-idaho
• Idaho Steelheads: https://idahosteelheads.com/news/2023/11/steelheads-sweep-americans-winning-series-finale-5-2

 

- The Americans headed home with a very early flight this morning and will not have much time to regroup before they hit the road again. Next week the Americans play in Wichita on Wednesday and Tulsa on Friday and Saturday. It is hard to overstate the importance of getting points next week given Allen's record compared to the other division teams fighting for playoff spots.   

 

- I asked coach Costello to share his thoughts going forward after the trip to Idaho. "After playing the best teams in the league it is clear we need to improve because were are not where we need to be. Players, roster and coaches all need to improve and we will. We also need to get healthy as soon as possible. We are very fortunate to learn this so early in the season. Now we have the time and opportunity to fix it. It's just time to go to work and play better hockey." 

 

- I think it  is safe to say you can expect more roster changes for the Allen Americans this week, both additions and deletions. Stay tuned.

 

OTHER COMMENTS

 - Had someone ask me if Allen's goals and shots stats are worse this season than last season. Here are the stats comparing the full season in 2022-23 to the stats this far this season. In all categories they are worse thus far this season:

• Goals Scored
• 2.69: 2023-24
• 3.61: 2022-23

• Goals Allowed
• 4.85: 2023-24
• 3.65: 2022-23

• Shots For
• 28.00: 2023-24
• 31.18: 2022-23

• Shot Allowed
• 45.85: 2023-24
• 36.40: 2022-23

 

- Two ECHL teams are averaging over 20 penalty minutes per game and they happen to be the two worst teams in the league by points percentage. Maine is #1 in average penalty minutes (20.50) and #27 in points percentage (.300). Allen is #2 in penalty minutes (20.23) and #28 in points percentage (.231). Allen is tied for the league lead in minor penalties (79), 10 minute misconduct penalties (5) and game misconduct penalties (3). Allen has taken 263 penalty minutes, their opponents just 139 PIMS.   

 

 

 

- Don't look now but the ECHL team on the rise is Iowa. The Heartlanders are the hottest team in the league with a six game win streak. Allen owns the league's longest losing streak at 0-6. No other team has lost more than four straight games. 

- With a six game losing streak and getting swept by Idaho while being outscored 16-5, I thought it was time for some quotes related to losing and failure:

"Is is hard to beat a person that never gives up".....Babe Ruth

"In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity".....Albert Einstein

 "When you have exhausted all possibilities remember this: You haven't".....Thomas Edison

"Believe you can and you are halfway there"....Theodore Roosevelt

"Success is stumbling from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm".....Winston Churchill

"I can accept failure, everyone fails at something. But I can't accept not trying".....Micheal Jordan

 

 -  Idaho has the best record (9-1-0-0) in the ECHL over the last 10 games. Three teams have a record of 8-2-0-0, Trois Riviéres, Greenville and Kansas City. Atlanta is the team in a tail spin. The Gladiators were the last undefeated team in the league winning their first eight games, but have now lost three straight.

 

 -  There are seven afternoon games in the ECHL today. Here are the previews:  https://echl.com/news/2023/11/echl-today-nov-19

 

DID YOU KNOW: Stick taps to the ECHL defenses last night. There were 11 games and winning teams allowed a total of 23 goals, averaging 2.09 goals per game. There was one shutout, two one goal games and five two goal games. The average of 2.09 goals allowed per game last night is better than any individual team defense in the league. Here is a list of the best team defenses in the ECHL. Just six teams allow fewer than 3.00 goals per game and they are all top teams in playoff positions. Points percentage is in parenthesis:

 

2.54 - KC (.846)

2.55 - ATL (.727)

2.58 - TR (.833)

2.69 - FLA (.577)

2.69 - GVL (.846)

2.75 - NOR (.583)

Losing Streak Reaches Five, Game Recap, Video Highlights, Tonight's Preview, Allen Trades for Defenseman Nolan Orzeck and More

The Allen Americans extended their losing streak to a league leading five games last night, losing 5-1 before a sellout crowd of 5261 in Idaho. If I told you the game was tied 0-0 after the first period and Allen outshot Idaho 17-13 in the second period you would think Allen was having a good night. Unfortunately the Steelheads scored four unanswered goals on their 13 second period shots to blow the game wide open while Allen was scoreless on its 17 shots.

 

- Idaho scored two goals in 120 seconds early in the second period and two power play goals in 65 seconds late in the period and the game was essentially over. Allen managed to break up the shutout at the 12:43 mark of the third period on Spencer Asuchak's second goal in the last three games, but it was much to little and much too late. Idaho got a late third period goal to make the final score 5-1. 

 

- Shot totals after the first two periods was 29-28. That all changed when Idaho outshot Allen 20-8 in the third period to make the final shot totals 49-36. The high shot totals can be partly attributed to the plethora of power play opportunities. Idaho had eight power plays and scored two power play goals. Allen was 0-5 on the power play. 

 

- After two games of this three game series Idaho leads in goals (11-3), shots (107-61), power play opportunities (13-10) and power play goals (3-2). It will take a Herculean effort for Allen to avoid a sweep tonight. With the win last night Idaho improved its record to 10-2-0-0 (.833) which is ranked #2 in the ECHL only trailing Kansas City who has a record of 11-2-0-0 (.846). With the loss Allen's record is 3-9-0-0 (.250) and the Americans now have the worst record in the ECHL.

 

-  Here are the game recaps from both teams with more details:

• Allen Americans:  https://allenamericans.com/news/2023/11/big-second-period-leads-idaho-over-the-americans   
• Idaho Steelheads: https://idahosteelheads.com/news/2023/11/steelheads-win-sixth-straight-at-home-defeating-americans-5-1

 

- Here are the video highlights with all of the goals and some great saves:  https://echl.com/videos/allen-americans-vs-idaho-steelheads-nov-17-2023  

 

TONIGHT'S PREVIEW

- Nothing has changed in terms of what it will take for Allen to get points tonight in the last of the three games against Idaho. A good start, keep Idaho under 40 shots on goal and win the special teams battle. 

• Allen gave up the first goal of the game on Wednesday and last night. Idaho had leads of 3-0 on Wednesday and 4-0 last night. Allen has to score the first goal of the game tonight to win the game.
• Allen has to stay out of the penalty box and avoid stick penalties. Last night Idaho had eight power play opportunities. Allen took one penalty (way behind the play) that negated breakaway. The referee tonight will be the same as the first two games, so the Americans need to adapt to how he calls penalties.
• Shots for and against have been a problem for Allen all season. Allen has allowed less than 40 shots one time all season and that was 38 shots. This matchup is particularly tough because Idaho is #1 in the ECHL in shots for per game (40.92) and Allen is #28 in shots allowed (45.92). The Americans will not win the game tonight if they get outshot and allow 40+ shots to the Steelheads. 
• In the first two games Allen was 2-10 (20%) on the power play and Idaho was 3-13 (23.1%). Allen needs to win on special teams if they expect to earn points tonight.

 

- Against a team as good as Idaho the Americans will have to be almost mistake free for the full 60 minutes and even that may not be enough. A good example of just how good Idaho is right now. The Steelheads seventh defenseman last night was an AHL contracted player.

 

- Third period scoring may be the difference in the game tonight. Allen's third period goal differential is -13 (10 goals for, 23 against). Idaho's third period goal differential is +6 (18 goals for, 12 against). Allen can't be playing from behind in this game. 

 

- After facing 102 shots in two games against Idaho, I would expect Mark Sinclair to get a rest tonight and Chase Perry will get the start. It is a tough position for Perry with so much time between starts. His first start was October 29, his second was November 3 and he hasn't played since.

 OTHER COMMENTS

- Allen acquired defenseman Nolan Orzeck from Iowa yesterday after acquiring defenseman Andrew Jarvis from Tulsa the day before. Dalton Gally was injured in the game on Wednesday and will out a while. 

- Orzeck led all Iowa defensemen in points last season with 34 (6G, 28A) but had a slow start this season,  no points in seven games. Orzeck is a 5'11" 175 pound, 22 year old, right shot defenseman from Calgary. He played his junior hockey in the Western Hockey League. In his last year in the WHL playing for the Winnipeg Ice, he had 43 points (6G, 37A) in 66 games and led his team in plus/minus at +62. His +62 plus/minus was the highest for any player in any of the major junior leagues in Canada (WHL. OHL, QMJHL) in 2021-22.  Here is an interview with Nolan when he re-signed with Iowa in July. FYI, he is driving to Allen from Iowa and will meet the team when they return from Idaho.

- Despite all of the losses Allen is fortunate to be in the Mountain Division where only two teams are above .500 and they are way above .500. As bad as it has been for Allen a playoff spot is not far away. Here are the points percentages with games played in parenthesis: 

• .846 - Kansas City (13 games)
• .833 - Idaho (12 games)
• .500 - Tulsa (11 games)
• .444 - Utah (9 games)
• .423 - Wichita (13 games)
• .375 - Rapid City (12 games)
• .250 - Allen (12 games)

- Allen's schedule had the Americans playing 11 of their first 13 games against three of the best teams in the league (Kansas City, Idaho, Atlanta). All have points percentages above .800 and their cumulative record is 29-6-0-0 (.829). The hope was Allen would start winning consistently after this road trip to Idaho. Next week Allen plays one game in Wichita and two in Tulsa. It might not be so easy for the Americans. Tulsa won three straight on the road last week and plays Kansas City three times this week. Wichita is 2-2 in its last four games and won at home last night. The next month will be a tough slog for the Allen Americans.

 

 

-  The ECHL leader in points is a rookie. Max Andreev (Kansas City) has 20 points (3G, 17A) in 13 games. The ECHL two leading goalies in GAA are also rookies. Evan Cormier (Florida) has a 1.45 GAA and Gustavs Grigals (Atlanta) has a 1.98 GAA. These are the only two ECHL goalies with a GAA under 2.00.

- There are 11 games on the schedule today. Here is the ECHL Today with all of the previews:  https://echl.com/news/2023/11/echl-today-nov-18

 

 

 

DID YOU KNOW: Thanksgiving is coming up next week and I will do my annual blog post on 80% of the playoff teams are already decided. Here is the ECHL Stats post for today on the same topic:

 

It is still very early in the season, but playing the “if playoffs started today” game there are some very wide gaps in points percentages in three of the four divisions and one sub .500 team would make the playoffs:

 

NORTH

.818 - Trois Rivières

.611 - Adirondack

.583 - Norfolk

.500 - Newfoundland 

 

SOUTH

.833 - Greenville

.800 - Atlanta

.542 - Florida

.500 - Orlando & Jacksonville 

 

CENTRAL

.778 - Toledo

.600 - Wheeling

.600 - Cincinnati

.556 - Fort Wayne 

 

MOUNTAIN

.846 - Kansas City

.833 - Idaho

.500 - Tulsa

.444 - Utah

 

Allen vs Idaho Preview, Americans Acquire Defenseman Andrew Jarvis, Upcoming Schedule, Former Allen Players Shine in Europe, .800 ECHL Teams and More

 

It is game day for the Allen Americans as they try to snap a four game losing streak and rebound from the 6-2 loss on Wednesday when they allowed a league record this season, 58 shots on goal. It will be a tall task for the Americans given Idaho's home record is 37-5 since the beginning of last season.

 

 - I won't restate all of the stats that indicate how much better Idaho has been this season than Allen. Here are some of them:

• Idaho is #3 in goals scored per game (5.09)
• Allen is #20 in goals scored per game (2.91)
• Idaho is #15 in goals allowed per game (3.36)
• Allen is #28 in goals allowed per game (4.82)
• Idaho is #1 in shots on goal per game (40.18)
• Allen is #27 in shots in goal per game (26.73)
• Idaho is #8 in shots allowed per game (29.27)
• Allen is #28 in shots allowed per game (45.64)

- Here are the cumulative stats in the three head to head games Allen and Idaho have played this season. All three took place in Idaho with Allen winning game one 5-2 and Idaho winning game two 8-5 and game three 6-2:

• Idaho has outscored Allen 16-12
• Idaho has outshot Allen 145-72
• Allen's power play is 4-14 (28.6%)
• Idaho's power play is 2-17 (11.8%)

- Here are the keys to victory for the Americans tonight:

• A good start is critical against the Steelheads. Allen gave up the first goal on Wednesday just 24 seconds into the game and the Americans trailed 3-0 midway through the first period. That can't happen tonight. Since the beginning of last season the Steelheads are 21-2-0-0 at home with a first period lead and 31-1-0-0 with a second period lead. The Americans can't play from behind and expect to win.
• Allen has to reduce the shots allowed to Idaho. The Americans can't play the same style they have been playing hoping to win 6-5. To be successful Allen will have to sacrifice offense for defense, change the forecheck to clog up the neutral zone and hope to win the game 3-2. 
• Special teams have been an advantage for Allen against Idaho. The Americans have four power play goals and three shorthanded goals against the Steelheads in three games. If Allen can win the special teams battle tonight the Americans will have a chance for victory.
• Special teams alone will not win the game. In Allen's two losses to Idaho this season the Americans have struggled to score even strength goals. A total of seven goals with just two scored even strength. To win tonight Allen needs to match Idaho when even strength.
• Allen will need a great goalie performance to beat Idaho. In the Americans win against Idaho in October, Leevi Merilainen had 43 saves and a .956 save percentage. Mark Sinclair had a hard to believe 52 saves and .912 save percentage in the loss on Wednesday. Sinclair will be in goal tonight. 
  

 

- Allen acquired defenseman Andrew Jarvis yesterday in a cash trade with Tulsa. Jarvis just came off injured reserve having been on IR since the beginning of the season. He played 11 games with Allen after finishing his collegiate career in 2021-22. Jarvis is not a big defenseman (5'9" 180 lbs.) but is a hard working, hard nosed player committed to playing defense. Jarvis will be in the lineup tonight.  

 OTHER COMMENTS

- Idaho is one of the best teams in the league with a points percentage of .818. While Allen is at the bottom of the list with two contracted players (Crone & Sinclair), Idaho is in the middle of the pack with six contracted players. Teams with 8+ contract players include Florida, Fort Wayne, Indy, Kansas City, Maine, Newfoundland, Orlando, Trois Riviéres, Tulsa, Utah, Wheeling and Worcester.

- It is a big night in the ECHL with 12 games on the schedule. A lot of the higher ranking teams are taking on lower ranked teams so the gaps could widen even further. In the North, South and Mountain Divisions one or two teams are way ahead of the rest of the teams. Here is the ECHL Today with the previews:  https://echl.com/news/2023/11/echl-today-nov-17

 

- Here are four former Allen players having outstanding seasons in Europe:

• Olivier Archambault - 27 points (8G, 19A) in 16 games playing in Slovakia
• Alex Lavoie - 25 points (8G, 17A) in 16 games playing in France
• Steve Owre - 21 points (13G, 8A) in 18 games playing in Austria
• Dante Salituro - 21 points (11G, 10A) in 14 games playing in German

- Allen is in on the road for six straight games while Disney on Ice takes over the CUTX Event Center. After the three games in Idaho, Allen will visit Tulsa for three games next week. After the Tulsa series the Americans play two home games (Wichita & Utah) and then are back on the road for three games in Utah followed by three games in Kansas City. With a schedule like this in the next month, 11 road games and two home games, it will be difficult for Allen to make progress in the standings.

 

- Talk about great special teams stats, check these out:

• Wheeling's road power play percentage is 40.0% (8-20)
• Greenville and Toledo have 100% road penalty kill percentages, both 0-11.
• Cincinnati and Atlanta have identical stats. Five shorthanded goals in nine games played. Four of the five shorties were scored on the road.

 

DID YOU KNOW: The ECHL Stats post today is about teams, last season and this season, with points percentages above .800. Allen's current points percentage is is .273 (3-8-0-0). At this point last season the Americans points percentage was .500 (5-5-1-0).

A year ago at this point in the season four ECHL teams had a points percentage above .800. This season there are five. Idaho is the only team that appears on both lists. 

 

2022-23 (Year end points percentage in parenthesis)

.867 - Worcester (.500)

.864 - Cincinnati (.715)

.833 - Newfoundland (.681)

.821 - Idaho (.826)

 

2023-24 (Last season’s points percentage in parenthesis)

.900 - Trois Rivières (.424)

.889 - Atlanta (.535)

.846 - Kansas City (.528)

.818 - Idaho (.826)

.818 - Greenville (.618)

 

Conclusions

- At this point in the season in 2022-23 Worcester had the best record in the league but didn’t make the playoffs. None of the .800 teams won the Kelly Cup.

- The three top teams in 2023-24 have made big improvements from how they finished last season.

- In the history of the ECHL only two teams have finished the regular season with a points percentage above .800. Idaho last season (.826) and Louisiana in 2001-02 (.806).