Allen Loses Series Opener, Game Recap, Video Highlights, Coaches Comments, Tonight's Preview and More

 

It was a disappointing start to the division finals for the Allen Americans losing 5-4 to the Idaho Steelheads last night before a crowd of 4239 at CUTX Event Center. Allen scored first and won the special teams battle, two keys to the game, but could not overcome costly turnovers that led directly to goals for Idaho.

 

- Allen got the party started at 13:53 of the first period when Grant Hebert took a pass from Justin Young and fired the puck home from the slot. Considering teams that score first have won 77% of the games thus far in the playoffs there was reason for optimism. However, before fans could sit back down in their seats after the red, red, red chant Idaho had tied the score. A bad turnover by the Americans led to a Steelheads  goal a mere eight seconds after Hebert's goal. The first period ended with the score tied 1-1.

 

- Allen took a 2-1 lead early in the second period (4:21) when Colby McAuley scored on his old team, but once again Idaho responded immediately. This time it took 42 seconds. Idaho took its first lead of the game midway through the period on another bad turnover by the Americans. With the Steelheads leading 3-2, Stefan Fournier scored a power play goal to tie the score 3-3. It was Fournier's third goal of the playoffs (tied for the team lead). The back and forth continued when Idaho scored late in the period (18:17) to take a 4-3 lead into the second intermission. It was not a good sign when you consider the Steelheads record this season when leading after the second period is now 49-2-0-0.

 

- Things went from bad to worse when Idaho took a 5-3 lead just 18 seconds into third period. Allen made a big push in the period outshooting Idaho 20-12 and did manage to cut the score to 5-4 at 15:21, but they could not get the equalizer. 

- Here are some stats and comments from the game.

• Allen allowed 46 shots, the fourth most shots allowed in the playoffs this season.
• Allen was outshot 16-6 in the first period and 18-13 in the second period.
• Allen's 20 shots in the third period were the third highest total in any period in the playoffs.
• The referees let a lot of typical penalties go, calling just three penalties in the game.
• Allen was 1-2 on the power play and Idaho was 0-1.
• Allen's lone penalty was for not going immediately to the bench after losing the helmet.
• With the loss Allen's record against Idaho this season is now 0-9.

 

- The goal scorers for Allen were Grant Hebert (1), Colby McAuley (1), Stefan Fournier (3) and Jack Combs (3). Colton Hargrove led the Americans with eight shots.  Here are the video highlights: https://www.echl.com/en/video/2023/5/idaho-steelheads-vs-allen-americans---may-5-2023-R7H26Vut

 

- Here are the game recaps from both teams if you want more detail than I shared above:

Idaho press release: https://www.idahosteelheads.com/en/articles/steelheads-take-game-one-in-mountain-division-finals-defeating-americans-5-4

Allen press release:  https://allenamericans.com/media/game-recap-americans-drop-game-1-to-idaho/

 

COACHES COMMENTS

- Aaron Gens and Gary Steffes met with the season ticket holders after the game. Here is what they had to say:

"That was a very unique playoff game. All of the ups and down with everything that happened in the game. We did not have a good start despite getting the first goal. I thought we needed a better effort, especially in the first two period. Yes, we got 20 shots in the third period, but in our mind, it wasn't good enough.".....Gens

"We have to be better from the net out and we have to be sure we are ready to go tomorrow night.".....Gens

"I think our team is a lot better than we played tonight. We learned tonight we have to be a lot stronger on pucks. We can't swing and have one handed effort at pucks. We have to make really strong hard passes and we can't try and play cute.".....Steffes

"Idaho is very good defensively. They are very good at protecting pucks and being on the attack. It is going to push us to be at our best and we are capable of doing just that. We have complete confidence in the team that we can rise to the highest level in game two.".....Steffes

"Mental toughness and physical toughness are absolutely essential for us to win this series. Mental toughness is important as the game goes up and down and adversity strikes when the ref makes calls you don't agree with, or bounces don't go your way. Physically we have to play hard, we have to hit them, and we have to battle. Our most successful guys tonight were the players playing physical.".....Steffes

"Ice conditions are a factor for both teams and that is how you have to approach it. I didn't hear the guys talking about the ice. Yes, the puck was bouncing a lot tonight, but you just have to battle through it.".....Steffes

"I am sure coach Costello will take a deep look at our lineup and their lineup, look at the video and make some decisions. You have to remember we put up 20 shots in the third period so that was just effort, not based on changes.".....Gens

"I am incredible impressed that our team is full of resilience. All year this team has faced unbelievable adversity at various points throughout the season, but they remained resilient. From last place at Christmas to look where we are sitting now. This team will respond as they are absolutely mentally tough. Tomorrow will be a different day and we will respond well to this loss. I have absolute confidence.".....Steffes      

 

TONIGHT'S PREVIEW

- It is hard to overstate the importance of game two tonight. It is tough to say game two of a seven game series is a must win for Allen, but if the Americans go down 0-2 heading for four games in Boise this could be a short series. Remember, Idaho's home record during the regular season was 32-4, an all-time ECHL record. The Americans can take some hope from the fact Utah beat Idaho twice in Boise, but the Steelheads have proven to be very tough at home with sellout crowds for every game.  

 

- Maybe the most frustrating thing watching Idaho play Allen is there are no surprises. Idaho plays the same way every game. They dump the puck and outwork the opponent forcing turnovers and making it hard for Allen defensemen to break out of their zone. Team defense is a hallmark of the Steelheads as evidenced by allowing just 153 goals in the regular season, 26 less than the next lowest team. As a comparison Allen allowed 263 goals in the regular season. It seems as if Allen needs to play a near perfect game for a full 60 minutes to win against Idaho. That will be the goal in game two tonight.

 

- Coach Costello juggled the lines late in the game trying to get a spark. Most notably Colby McAuley played with Hargrove and Crone, a combination that worked well earlier in the season. Liam Finlay then played with Butcher and Combs and that line scored the Americans fourth goal. It will be interesting to see what changes Costello will make in the line combinations tonight.

 

- As for the lineup tonight Ty Farmer (injury) is not available and Jakov Novak is back at school finishing his master's degree. I had several questions if Novak will return. Yes, he will return but I don't know the exact date. Aiden Brown is the only available player that was not in the lineup last night. 

 

OTHER COMMENTS

- Toledo took a 1-0 lead in its series with Cincinnati last night. The game was tied 2-2 in the third period when Cincinnati's Sean Allen took a five minute major penalty for boarding (game misconduct). The Cyclones took a minor penalty during the five minute major and the bottom line is Toledo blew the game open with four power play goals. The final score was 6-2, the Walleye had a 37-17 shot advantage and were 5-8 on the power play. Here is the game recap from Cincinnati: https://cycloneshockey.com/news/2023/05/major-penalty-costs-clones-game-one-to-walleye 

 

- All four division finals series are in action tonight. Here is the ECHL Today with the previews.  https://www.echl.com/en/news/2023/5/echl-today-may-6

 

- Given Toledo is the only undefeated team in the playoffs (5-0) it is no surprise the Walleye have to some gaudy stats:

• Toledo's power play percentage is 44.4%, second place (Newfoundland) is 26.3%.
• Toledo's third period scoring is differential +11 (14-3). The next closest team is +6.
• Toledo is averaging 4.60 goals per game and allowing 1.80. 
• Toledo has scored first in every game and won them all (5-0)

 

- After 48 playoff games the ECHL average attendance is 4188. Last season the average playoff attendance was 4385 over 85 playoff games. 

 

 

DID YOU KNOW:  ECHL regular season top five teams have won 15 of the last 17 Kelly Cups. Here is regular season rank of remaining eight teams in the playoffs with regular season points in parenthesis. Odds heavily favor the top four on this list.

 

1. Idaho (119 points)

2. Cincinnati (103 points)

3. Toledo (98 points)

4. Newfoundland (98 points)

6. Jacksonville (93 points)

9. Reading (88 points)

11. Florida (85 points)

13. Allen (77 points)

 

Allen vs Idaho Preview, McAuley Returns, Novak Out, Costello Shares His Thoughts, Playoff Goals Per Game Stats and More

 

Sorry about the blog being so late today for all of you regular readers. It wasn't a good morning time wise. I had a bike problem this morning and couldn't drop it off at Trek until 10:00. Has a doctor appointment (blood labs) at 9:00. Had a few extra minutes before the bike shop opened so stopped by the rink for pregame skate, which I usually don't do and stayed way too long. Two reasons I stayed late at the rink. First, I had a chance to meet Justin Young's grandfather, Mac McIntyre, who is in Allen for the first time to watch his grandson play. He is from Edmonton and played a big role in Justin's early hockey development. It is always great when family and friends from near and far can come to Allen for the playoffs. Secondly, I had the chance to observe the coaches getting ready for the game tonight. Gary Steffes is in town for the two home games and to see the collaborative between the coaches is inspiring. So it was noon by the time I got back home to finish the blog and to top[ it off my lovely proofreader (aka wife Nancy) is in Minnesota visiting friend and family so I apologize upfront for all the errors today. 

 

The second round of the Kelly Cup playoffs get underway tonight and the eight division finalist teams will be trimmed to the final four in the next 13 days. Two of the series start tonight with Idaho at Allen and Toledo at Cincinnati. The winners of these series will meet for the Western Conference championship which will take place between May 19-31.

 

-  It is well documented how far Allen has come this season from last place at the end of December to  what I call the elite eight in the Kelly Cup playoffs. It is also well documented Allen's opponent in the division finals, Idaho, had the best regular season in the history of the ECHL including an 0-8-0-0 record against Allen. However, there is nobody in the Allen locker room doesn't think the Americans can win this series against Idaho.

 

- Here is my stats case why Allen is a better team in the playoffs and Idaho is not as strong as it was in the regular season.

• Idaho did not lose back-to-back games at home the entire regular season, Utah beat them twice at home to start the first round of the playoffs.
• In the regular season Utah's record against Idaho was 4-13-1-0. In the just completed playoffs Utah's record was 2-0-4-0. 
• In the regular season Idaho scored the most goals (290) and allowed the fewest (153) for a goal differential of +137. In the first round of the playoffs Idaho scored 17 goals and allowed 17 goals.
• In the regular season Allen was ranked #23 is average goals allowed (3.65). In the playoffs Allen is ranked #3 in goals allowed (1.83).
• In the regular season Allen's team GAA was 3.61 and Idaho's was 2.08. In the playoffs Allen's is 1.81 and Idaho's is 2.08.
• In the regular season Allen's team save percentage was .900 and Idaho's was .927. In the playoffs Allen's team save percentage is .944 and Idaho's is .901.  

 

- There is no doubt Idaho is the favorite in this series despite the numbers above. However, if Idaho thinks it will be getting the team the Steelheads beat eight straight times in the regular season they will be in for a rude awakening.

 

 

- Here is an Allen vs Idaho stats comparison based on the first round of the playoffs. The first number is the rank (among 16 playoff teams).

• Goals per game: Allen #12 (2.00), Idaho #8 (2.83)
• Goals allowed: Allen #3 (1.83), Idaho #9 (2.83)
• Shots for: Allen #10 (31.2), Idaho #1 (38.3)
• Shots against: Allen #11 (32.7), Idaho #4 (28.5)
• PIMS per game: Allen #16 (7.83), Idaho #12 (12.33)
• Power play percentage: Allen #14 (9.1%), Idaho #10 (16.0%)
• Penalty kill percentage: Allen #1 (94.1%), Idaho #13 (79.2%)

 

- This series will feature two outstanding goaltenders who have been workhorses in the first round. Idaho's Adam Scheel was runner up for the ECHL Goalie of the Year and led the league (regular season) in save percentage (.932) and GAA (1.97). Allen's Keven Mandolese had wins in the ECHL, AHL and NHL during the regular season. In three NHL games he had a .916 save percentage. Mandolese played seven regular season games for the Americans, had a record of 5-1-0-0. a GAA of 2.64 and a .927 save percentage. Mandolese and Scheel played every minute of the first round for their teams and that could very likely be the case in this series. Here are their first-round stats.

 

• Mandolese, 363 minutes played, 1.82 GAA, .944 save percentage.
• Sheel, 366 minutes played, 2.46 GAA, .911 save percentage.

 

 

- Scoring first is always a key and you can expect that to continue in this series. In the first round Allen was 3-1 when scoring first and Idaho was 4-0. It is likely overtime will be a factor in this series. Neither team lost in overtime in the first round. Allen was 1-0 and Idaho won four straight overtime games after going down 0-2 in the series. 

 

 

 

- Maybe the biggest key to this series will be on special teams. Both teams had great power plays in the regular season but struggled in the first round of the playoffs. Allen's power play improved as the regular season progressed and by the end of the season was ranked #4 at 23.9%. The Americans scored more power play goals than any team in the league (73). The Allen power play went south in the first round of the playoffs scoring just two goals on 22 opportunities for a 9.1% power play percentage. I would expect coach Costello to go back to what worked in the regular season to get the power play going. If the Americans can get the power play back on track, they will have a great chance of winning the series.  

 

 

- As for the Allen lineup tonight, the good news is Colby McAuley will return after missing the last two games. He looked really good at the pregame skate and always is ready when Allen plays Idaho. Ty Farmer will not play tonight because of an injury he suffered in the last game against Kansas City. Also missing tonight is forward Jakov Novak. When Jakov was signed in March, out of Northeastern University, it was with the understanding he would have to return to school at this time so he could take a test that will complete his master's degree in management. Coach Costello was in full agreement and is 100% supportive of Novak completing his education.  

 

 

- I had the chance to ask coach Costello this morning what this series means to him (rather than the team) as he always focuses on the team rather than himself. Here is what he had to say:

 

"I feel the same way now as when I took this job, it is championship or fail. That is the culture in Allen and that is how I feel going into this series. That is the expectation."

 

"It doesn't mean if we don't win the championship the season is a failure. But it means we will die trying to win the championship and in no way are we satisfied with what we have accomplished thus far."

 

"I told the guys I am thankful, grateful and feel so lucky because this season has allowed me to coach in these pressure situations and grow as a coach. As a coach I do recognize this is very good for me either way."

 

"There are so many reasons I want to win. First is the satisfaction of winning. Second, because it is more money for the players (salary and playoff bonus) the longer we play. They players came from all over the place to Allen, Texas and it would be nice to send them home with some money."

 

"In the end it is an opportunity not to just win but for all of us to grow. Every player is going to find out who they are as a man, who they are as a teammate and who they are as a player. I get to do that as a coach. How do you get game ready in the playoffs without coaching in the playoffs. I am super grateful for the opportunity."  

 

 

 

 

OTHER COMMENTS

 

 

- Here is a preview of all division finals series issues by the ECHL:  https://www.echl.com/en/news/2023/5/preview-of-2023-kelly-cup-playoffs-division-finals

 

 

- The best offensive and defensive teams in the first round of the playoffs by average goals scored and allowed per game:

•  OFFENSE
• 5.20 - Newfoundland
• 4.25 - Toledo
• 3.83 - Reading
•  
• DEFENSE
• 1.71 - Fort Wayne
• 1.75 - Toledo
• 1.83 - Allen
  
  

 

DID YOU KNOW: Here are the players with the highest career goals per game average in the postseason in the last 15 ECHL seasons (since 2007-08). Minimum 35 playoff games played, and 20 playoff goals scored. The team listed is the current and/or last ECHL team. A couple of familiar names on this list for Allen fans. Notice Chad Costello is conspicuously absent from this list as his playoff average was .34. That is because Costello was busy setting up Hanson and Steffes. In 65 playoff games for Allen, Chad averaged .91 assists per game and 1.23 points per game. 

 

.63 - Brandon Hawkins, Toledo

.59 - Zach O’Brien, Newfoundland

.51 - Greger Hanson, Allen

.49 - Kyle Bonis, Toledo

.48 - Ryan Hayes, Utah

.43 - Gary Steffes, Allen

 

Comparing the Eight ECHL Division Playoff Finalists, Who Wins, Stats and More

 

 The division finals field was set last night as Cincinnati became the last team to qualify with a controversial 1-0 win in game seven over Fort Wayne. The Komets appeared to tie the game with 61 seconds remaining, but the goal was disallowed on an iffy goalie interference call. With the eight-team division finals field set, I thought today would be a good time to look at the big picture in the race for the Kelly Cup using historical data. 

 

- To start here is the updated Kelly Cup bracket chart:

- Because of building availability/cost some strange formats happen in the ECHL playoffs. Here are the formats for the second round:

• #1 Newfoundland vs #2 Reading - Growlers start on the road in a 3-4 format.
• #1 Idaho vs #2 Allen - Steelheads start on the road in a 2-4-1 format.
• #1 Cincinnati vs #2 Toledo - Traditional 2-3-2 format
• #2 Jacksonville vs #4 Florida - Traditional 2-3-2 format 
  

 

- I say this every season which for the most part is true. Unlike the NHL where lower seeded teams often advance and sometimes win the Stanley Cup, it is not the case in the ECHL. Of the eight teams advancing to the second round, three of the four #1 seeds (Newfoundland, Cincinnati, Idaho) have advanced with South Carolina the lone exception. All four #2 seeds advanced (Reading, Jacksonville, Toledo, Allen). The only team outside the top two in each division to advance was the #4 seed in the South Division, Florida.

 

- Here are the last 17 Kelly Cup champions with their regular season finish in parenthesis. Anyone who says once you get in the playoffs anything can happen hasn't looked at ECHL history. The Brabham Cup curse has been in effective since 2014 when Alaska won both the Brabham Cup and Kelly Cup. However, no team has won the Kelly Cup from lower than seventh place in the regular season going back to 2005. 

 

2022 - Florida (3rd)
2021 - Fort Wayne (5th)
2019 - Newfoundland (3rd)
2018 - Colorado (4th)
2017 - Colorado (3rd)
2016 - Allen (6th)
2015 - Allen (2nd)
2014 - Alaska (1st)
2013 - Reading (2nd)
2012 - Florida (7th)
2011 - Alaska (1st)
2010 - Cincinnati (5th)
2009 - South Carolina (4th)
2008 - Cincinnati (1st)
2007 - Idaho (6th)
2006 - Alaska (1st)
2005 - Trenton (4th) 

 

- Here are the eight teams in the Division Finals ranked by regular season finish with points percentage in parenthesis:

• 1st - Idaho (.826)
• 2nd - Cincinnati (.715)
• 3rd - Toledo (.681)
• 4th - Newfoundland (.681)
• 6th - Jacksonville (.646)
• 9th - Reading (.611)
• 11th - Florida (.590)
• 13th - Allen (.535)

Based on history it is highly likely the Kelly Cup will go to one of four teams this season: Idaho, Cincinnati, Toledo or Newfoundland. 

 

 

- Idaho has to deal with the Brabham Cup curse after having the best regular season record in the history of the ECHL. All is not lost for the Steelheads as five teams since the league was founded in 1988 have won both the regular season and playoff championships. Oddly enough one team, Alaska, did it three times. Here are the five seasons the same team won the Brabham Cup and Kelly/Riley Cup:

1. 2013-14 - Alaska
2. 2010-11 - Alaska
3. 2007-08 - Cincinnati
4. 2005-06 - Alaska
5. 1996-97 - South Carolina

 

- How many NHL/AHL contracted players do the eight division finalists have on their playoff rosters? Here are the numbers:

• 18 - Newfoundland
• 10 - Reading
• 9 - Toledo
• 7 - Florida
• 6 - Idaho
• 5 - Jacksonville
• 2 - Cincinnati
• 2 - Allen

 

- Goal differential is sometimes used as a proxy for how well a team is playing. Here are the first-round goal differentials for the eight teams advancing to the division finals: 

• +13: Newfoundland
• +10: Toledo
• +5: Florida
• +3: Reading
• +2: Jacksonville
• +2: Allen
• 0: Idaho
• -6: Cincinnati

 

- Here are the eight teams advancing to the division finals listed by the last time they won the ECHL championship (Kelly/Riley Cup):

 

2022 - Florida

2019 - Newfoundland

2016 - Allen

2013 - Reading

2010 - Cincinnati

2007 - Idaho

1994 - Toledo (Riley Cup)

Never - Jacksonville

 

 

DID YOU KNOW: Since the Allen Americans joined the ECHL in 2014-15 the team has played in 15 playoff series and has a playoff series record of 11-4. 

 

Another pretty amazing record Allen fans will remember. The Americans won four straight championships in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 (2 ECHL, 2 CHL) and all four championships were won on home ice.

 

Season Perspective, Playoff History, Thanksgiving Prediction Results, First Round Playoff Stats, 2nd Round Matchups and More

 

It is back to practice (optional) today after a well-deserved day off for the Allen Americans. I would assume most players will take the time to heal the bump and bruises. The team will has two days to prepare for the second round series against the Idaho Steelheads who will arrive in Allen today. The teams will play two games in Allen (Friday and Saturday) before heading to Boise for games three thru six (May 10, 12, 13, 15). If there is a game seven it will be back in Allen on May 17.

 

- I keep thinking about what an amazing season this has been for the Americans. From dead last in December to second place in April. Allen was the last team or close to last to find an affiliate. Allen had the fewest contract players assigned of any team in the league. Injuries to two key players, Stephen Baylis never played a game and Spencer Asuchak was injured in game one. Losing those two players represented 50 goals out of the lineup right from the beginning of the season. Throw in a bunch of suspensions, personal issues, on ice issues, off ice issues and you have to say making the elite eight of the Kelly Cup playoffs is a credit to the entire Allen team, coaches and staff. 

 

- One way to put it all in perspective is looking at the playoff results for Allen in the past. Everyone remembers the Kelly Cups in 2015 and 2016. Here are the playoff results since. Allen has already matched the best playoff finish since the last Kelly Cup, with a chance for more.

• 2017 - Lost in 2nd round (4-2 to Colorado)
• 2018 - Lost in 1st round (4-3 to Idaho)
• 2019 - Missed Playoffs
• 2020 - No Playoffs
• 2021 - Lost in 2nd round (3-1 to Fort Wayne)
• 2022 - Lost in 1st round (4-1 to Rapid City)
• 2023 - Advanced to 2nd round to play Idaho

 

- You are probably all familiar with my commitment to eat crow after the playoffs, since I predicted the Americans would not make the playoffs. It has become the point of a lot of good-natured chirping/kidding as the Americans turned around the season. What isn't as well known is I use a model based on NHL playoff history that says 80% of playoff teams are decided by Thanksgiving. Typically, that means just two or three teams not in playoff positions at Thanksgiving will make the playoffs. It is strictly by the numbers with some commentary on possible teams that will defy the model. The model was the least accurate ever this season. Teams considered a lock missed the playoffs and teams in last place made the playoffs. Here are the results of the predictions from Thanksgiving. These were the standings and point percentages at Thanksgiving. The teams with an asterisk ended up making the playoffs.   

 

NORTH DIVISION (2/4 correct)

• 1. Worcester (.853)
• 2. Newfoundland (.794) *
• 3. Reading (.633) *
• 4. Trois Riviéres (.469)

Just two of the four teams in playoff positions at Thanksgiving made the playoff. (Newfoundland & Reading). The biggest surprise was Worcester who had the best record in the league at Thanksgiving (.853) and ended up not making the playoffs. The commentary at the time said this. "The top two in the North Division are pretty much a lock but the last playoff team will come down to Trois Riviéres, Adirondack or Maine." Adirondack and Maine made the playoffs. 

SOUTH DIVISION (2/4 correct)

• 1. Florida (.700) *
• 2. Atlanta (.679)
• 3. Savannah (.654)
• 4. South Carolina (.643) *

The commentary has it nailed but nevertheless the model failed. Here is what I said at Thanksgiving. "The South Division has six teams with a points percentage above .500 and in playoff territory. Greenville is at .567 and Jacksonville is at .533. Jacksonville and Greenville made the playoffs last season and could jump into a playoff position. Savannah is a first-year franchise and has cooled down (4-3-3--0 in last 10 games) after a great start to the season (5-1-0-0). It will be hard for the Ghost Pirates to maintain a playoff position." Turned out Greenville and Jacksonville made the playoffs.

CENTRAL DIVISION (2/4 correct)

• 1. Cincinnati (.821) *
• 2. Indy (.656) *
• 3. Kalamazoo (.536) 
• 4. Wheeling (.467)

The model failed but I had the final outcome right. Here is what I said at Thanksgiving. "Of all of the divisions the Central is the most likely to have a different outcome than it looks like today. It is hard to say Fort Wayne (.464) and Toledo (.393) won't make the playoffs based on past history. Iowa (.321) is unlikely to make the playoffs, but I could see Fort Wayne and/or Toledo leap-frog Kalamazoo and/or Wheeling for a playoff spot." Fort Wayne and Toledo both made the playoffs.

MOUNTAIN DIVISION (2/4 correct)

• 1. Idaho (.844) *
• 2. Kansas City (.607) *
• 3. Wichita (.600)
• 4. Tulsa (.533)

 

This was the giant fail both in the model and in my commentary. No wonder I will be eating crow. Here is what I said at Thanksgiving. "This is another division where every team, but one has a record of .500+. Rapid City and Utah are lurking just behind Tulsa. Utah was the #1 team in the regular season last season and Rapid City was #2, so it is easy to see them moving into a playoff position. Allen is in last place in the division with a .393 points percentage and is the only team out of contention for a playoff spot at this point." Allen and Utah made the playoffs.

 

 

 

- The overall results were not 80% accurate or 70% accurate of 60% accurate but 50% accurate. You could throw darts and be as accurate. The biggest surprises were Allen on the upside, going from .393 and last place at Thanksgiving to .535 and second place by the end of the season. On the downside and a real shocker was Worcester, who went from first place (.853) at Thanksgiving to fifth place (.500) and out of the playoffs by the end of the season. I am going to rethink this model if I use it again next season to predict playoff teams but the standings plus other factors. I need to reduce the chances of making a steady diet of crow.

 

 

 

- First Round playoff stats. Cincinnati vs Fort Wayne series is tied 3-3 so could change the stats.

• Jacksonville punched its ticket to the second round of the playoffs with a 4-2 win over Greenville last night.
• Only one first round series was a 4-0 sweep, Toledo over Indy.
• Only one first round series will go seven games. Fort Wayne plays at Cincinnati tonight.  
• In only one series the lower seeded team won. #4 seed Florida beat #1 seed South Carolina 4-2.
• 22% of games went to overtime. 
• Road teams had a record of 21-25 in the first round. Goals scored were exactly the same between road and home teams, 130-130.
• Average attendance was 4265 ranging from 2271 (Kansas City) to 8171 (Toledo).

 

 

- I will have plenty of Allen vs Idaho series preview information the next two days but here is one stat that has stood out to me from the regular season. Allen was outshot in 74% of it games (53 of 72) with a record of 26-26-1-0 (.500). Idaho was outshot in 19% of its games (14 of 72). Most impressive is Idaho did not lose a single game when being out shot with a perfect 14-0-0-0 record. 

 

 

- Second round, Division Finals, playoff matchups. Not many upsets thus far: 

• North Division - #1 seed Newfoundland vs #2 seed Reading.
• South Division - #2 seed Jacksonville vs #4 seed Florida.
• Central Division - #2 seed Toledo vs either #1 seed Cincinnati or #4 seed Fort Wayne.
• Mountain Division - #1 seed Idaho vs #2 seed Allen.
   

 

 

 

 

DID YOU KNOW: How important is playing with a lead in the playoffs? Records and point percentages tell the tale thus far in the Kelly Cup playoffs:

 

25-4 (.862) - Combined record for teams leading after first period.

 

4-32 (.111) - Combined record for teams trailing after the second period.

 

35-10 (.778) - Combined record for teams scoring the first goal of the game.

 

 

Allen Advances, Game Recap, Video Highlights, Reflections on Coach Costello, Six Teams Advance, Highest Scoring Playoff Defensemen and More

It was a hard-fought game in a hard-fought series featuring two outstanding goaltenders. The Allen Americans beat the Kansas City Mavericks 2-1 last night to win the series 4-2 and advance to the division finals where they will take on the Idaho Steelheads. Building availability once again will dictate the series against Idaho. The good news is the Americans start at home (Friday and Saturday) even though they are the lower seed. The bad news is this series will be a very unusual 2-4-1 series.

 

- Once again Allen got off to a good start, scoring the first goal of the game at the 14:09 mark of the opening period. Stefan Fournier did what he does best, taking the puck to the net from behind the goal. Allen took a 1-0 lead into the first intermission thanks to some stellar goaltending by Kevin Mandolese who stopped three breakaways. 

 

- There was no scoring in the second period, but there were plenty of chances. After two periods the teams had combined for 51 shots and just one goal. The combined save percentage for Mandolese and Shane Starrett was an eye popping .980.

 

- Allen would score what would become the eventual game winner 86 seconds into the third period. It was one of those get the puck to the net with guys in front type of goals. Dalton Skelly took the shot with Combs and Novak parked at the net. Novak put in the rebound to give Allen a 2-0 lead. The goal proved to be critical as Kansas City scored less than a minute later on a controversial goal that appeared to be kicked in. After a six-minute review the referee called it a good goal. 

 

- It was a struggle down the stretch for the Americans as they did not have a shot on goal the last eight minutes of the game. Kansas City pulled the goalie with 2:10 remaining in the game and the puck never left Allen's zone, thanks to five straight faceoff wins by the Mavericks. Allen was tenacious on defense with bodies flying all over the place blocking shots and clearing guys from the front of the net. And when needed Mandolese came to the rescue. It was the longest 2:10 in memory. 

 

- Goalie Kevin Mandolese was clearly the MVP of the first round series. After stopping 40 of 41 shots last night his GAA is 1.82 and his save percentage is .944. He is also #2 in the ECHL in minutes played at 196. Considering the Idaho series games are somewhat spread out (Friday, Saturday, Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, Monday, Wednesday) expect to see a lot of Mandolese in the series.  

 

- It is difficult to put this series win in perspective. Allen has had many exciting series wins over the years on the way to four championships, but this series may have been the most exciting opening round win ever. Six one goal games and who would believe when Allen's offense was putting up five goals per game at the end of the regular season the Americans would win the first round of the playoffs by scores of 3-2, 1-0, 4-3 and 2-1. This has been a special team.  

 

- Here are the video highlights and the game recap from the Allen Americans:

• Video highlights: https://www.echl.com/en/video/2023/5/kansas-city-mavericks-vs-allen-americans---may-1-2023-UnQfL5xS
• Game recap: https://allenamericans.com/media/moving-on/

 

 

- Allen fans can only hope beating rival Kansas City turns out as it has in the past. The Mavericks have never beaten the Americans in the playoffs. Here is the history:

• 2013 - Allen beat the Mavericks 4-3 on the way to its first championship
• 2016 - Allen beat Kansas City 4-2 on the way to its second Kelly Cup. That was the year the Mavericks won the Brabham Cup with 109 regular season points.
• 2023 - Allen beat Kansas City 4-2 on the way to ????  
   

 

 

- Idaho advanced last night after a hard-fought series with Utah. The Steelheads lost the first two games of the series at home and then won four straight overtime games. Allen struggled against Idaho in the regular season (0-8-0-0) but this is a vastly different team right now. 

 

 

OTHER COMMENTS

- Six teams have now qualified for the second round of the playoffs (Newfoundland, Reading, Florida, Toledo, Idaho and Allen). Five of the six teams were the higher seed. The one exception was in the South Division where #4 seed Florida beat #1 seed South Carolina. The higher seeds are leading in the two remaining series with games six tonight. #1 seed Cincinnati is at home against #4 seed Fort Wayne. The Cyclones lead in the series 3-2. #2 seed Jacksonville is at home against the #3 seed Greenville. Jacksonville leads the series 3-2. If either series goes to a seventh game it will be tomorrow night. 

- The ECHL sets completion dates for each round of the playoffs. The second round must be completed by May 17. If the Allen vs Idaho series goes to seven games the seventh game will be played in Allen on May 17. 

 

- I am always hesitant to talk about coach Costello because he constantly tells me he wants the focus on the players. I couldn't help but notice all that was happening with him as I sat in his office after the game. There were pats on the back and celebratory hugs from players, former players and staff. That was combined with dealing with player issues, family time, watching the Idaho vs Utah game, and talking about preparation for the upcoming series. I couldn't help but think what an amazing accomplishment it has been for Chad from being plucked out of the locker room, learning the general manager part of the job, dealing with so many obstacles on and off the ice you could write a book and making it to the final eight of the Kelly Cup playoffs. It was obvious to me there was a lot of reflection going on internally by Chad in between the helter-skelter moments. Chad always says how proud he is of his team and how much he loves them. I just hope he realizes how proud everyone is of him and how much he is loved. He has proven a lot of things to a lot of people in a very short period of time. And it is clear if you spend time with Costello, this first round playoff win is not the end, it is just the beginning.      

 

DID YOU KNOW: Most playoff points by an ECHL defenseman in a single season since 2011-12:

 

30: Charles-Edouard D’Astous, Utah, 2022

25: Ben Finkelstein, Newfoundland, 2022

24: *Matt Register, Colorado, 2017

23: Mathew Maione, Wheeling, 2016

21: *Eric Roy, Allen, 2016

 

*Won Kelly Cup

 

Allen vs Kansas City Game Six Preview, Allen Last in Playoff PIMS, Newfoundland Advances, Playoff PIMS and More

 

 

It was a long slog from December for the Allen Americans just to make the Kelly Cup playoffs. Tonight, the Americans are on the precipice of advancing to the elite eight of the Kelly Cup playoffs. Allen has two home elimination games against the Kansas City Mavericks but nobody in Allen wants to see this series go to a seventh game.

 

 

- It wouldn't be an Allen game if there weren't some challenges facing the team. Colby McAuley left game four with an injury and Ty Farmer left game five with an injury. It will be next man up if McAuley and/or Farmer are not ready to go tonight. 

 

 

- What does Allen have to do to come away with the series win tonight? Coach Costello described it best in his post-game comments to me after the win on Saturday. We are a skilled team but, in the playoffs, we need to recognize how we had success is the second period. Keeping it simple, getting the puck in deep and working east to west high. Getting the puck on net with guys in front and making plays in tight off rebounds. It is a big plus we are getting scoring from the defensemen.

 

 

- The team that scored first lost the last two games but that is unlikely to happen tonight. A good start will be critical for both teams, especially the way the goalies have been playing in this series. Save percentages of .935 (Mandolese) and .925 (Starrett) tells you all you need to know about how tight the game will likely be tonight.

 

 

- Special teams haven't been much of a factor in this series but if either team can get its power play going it would be the difference maker. As you will see in the DID YOU KNOW section below the Allen vs Kansas City series has the fewest penalties of any of the first round series. Both teams have struggled on the power play. Allen is ranked 14th of 16 playoff teams with a 10.0% (2-20) power play percentage. Kansas City is dead last with a 7.1% (1-14) power play percentage. If you want to put a positive spin on special teams, Allen is ranked #1 on the penalty kill at 92.9%.

 

 

- If going 2-20 on the power play wasn't bad enough for the Americans the power play has given up two shorthanded goals to the Mavericks. That makes the power play a net zero for the series. To be successful in the game tonight and even more so if Allen advances to the second round, the power play will be critical. There is little doubt the second round of the playoffs will be more physical than the series against Kansas City. 

 

 

- Here are the stats on average goals and shots in this series:

• Allen is ranked #12 in average goals scored per game (2.20)
• Kansas City is ranked #15 in average goals scored (2.00)
• Allen is ranked #2 in average goals allowed (2.00)
• Kansas City is ranked #3 in average goals allowed (2.20)
• Allen is ranked #12 in average shots for per game (29.20)
• Kansas City is ranked #10 in average shots per game (31.00)
• Allen is ranked #7 is average shots allowed (31.00)
• Kansas City is ranked #5 in average shots allowed (29.20)

 

 

 

OTHER COMMENTS

 

- Newfoundland shutout Adirondack 3-0 last night to advance to the North Division finals where the Growlers will take on Reading in a rematch of the division finals last season. Like Allen in the first round, Newfoundland (#1 seed) had to start its series with Adirondack on the road in a 3-4 format. The Growlers have the same issue in the second round and will start on the road in Reading in a 3-4 format.

 

 

- Some ECHL playoff teams release second round dates before they even qualify for the second round. Cincinnati, the #1 seed in the Central Division, is already selling tickets to the second round despite still contesting the first round against Fort Wayne. The Cyclones lead the series 3-2. Allen won't release second round dates until it advances, but my unofficial reporting is if the Americans win the series against Kansas City, they will start the second round at home, no matter who wins the Idaho vs Utah series.

 

 

- I am sure most of you saw the Toronto Maple Leafs just became the first team in NHL history to win three overtime games on the road in a single playoff series. The Idaho Steelheads can do Toronto one better. Idaho just won three straight road overtime games against Utah after being down in the series 2-0 and now lead the series 3-2. In 2019 Idaho and Utah were tied in the series 1-1 before the Steelheads won three straight overtime games in Utah to win the series 4-1. Idaho lost in the next round to Tulsa.

 

 

- How strange is it for the Allen Americans to be the least penalized team in the Kelly Cup playoffs, averaging 8.2 minutes per game? In 2015 when the Americans won their first Kelly Cup, they had almost 100 more PIMS than any other team and averaged 17.0 minutes per game. Allen was #1 in the regular season with 1644 PIMS averaging 22.83 per game.

 

 

- I had a question about how to pronounce Kevin Mandolese's name. The best way to get it right is to hear the player say his name. Here is a short video (1 minute) about Kevin's approach to his mask. He says his name at the end of the video: https://youtu.be/X_lvA2RIIkk

 

 

 

- There are three games on tap tonight and all three are elimination games. Here is the ECHL Today with the previews: https://www.echl.com/en/news/2023/5/echl-today-may-1

• #1 seed South Carolina hosts #4 seed Florida. South Carolina trails 3-2 in the series.
• #2 seed Allen hosts #3 seed Kansas City. Allen leads the series 3-2.
• #1 seed Idaho hosts #4 seed Utah. Idaho leads the series 3-2.

 

 

 

DID YOU KNOW: Average combined penalty minutes per game in all eight first round ECHL playoff series (combined number of minor penalties is in parenthesis):

 

56.4 - CIN vs FW (91)

33.4 - SC vs FLA (61)

32.0 - NFL vs ADK (65)

31.5 - TOL vs IND (48)

30.0 - JAX vs GVL (65)

26.8 - IDH vs UTA (57)

23.0 - REA vs MNE (69)

19.2 - ALN vs KC (43)

 

- Cincinnati vs Fort Wayne has been off the charts in penalty minutes. They represent 12.5% of the playoff teams. Here is their percentage of PIMS categories:

 

22.5% of total penalty minutes (282 of 1253)

18.2% of minor penalties (91 of 499)

60.0% of 10-minute misconducts (9 of 15)

 

- Three teams (Newfoundland, Reading and Toledo) have already advanced to the second round of the playoffs.

 

Allen Wins, Takes 3-2 Series Lead, Game Recap, Video Highlights, Costello Comments, Contract Players on ECHL Rosters and More

 

The Allen Americans beat the Kansas City Mavericks last night 4-3 in a game that was not as close as the final score but still had plenty of drama. It was a critical game for the Americans after the Mavericks tied the series 2-2 on Friday. Historically, good things usually happen for whichever team wins game five of a best of seven hockey series. With a 3-2 series lead and two home games remaining you have to like Allen's chances in advancing.

 

- It wasn't a good start for Allen as Kansas City scored the first goal of the game early in the first period. Thus far in the Kelly Cup playoffs the team that scored first has won 75% of the games. As it turned out last night was the opposite of Friday night when Allen scored first, and Kansas City scored late in the first period. Last night Kansas City scored first but Allen tied the score late in the period on Kris Myllari's second goal in as many nights.

 

- Allen blew the game open in the second period outscoring Kansas City 3-0 on goals by Eric Williams, Colton Hargrove and the eventual game winner by Liam Finlay. It was the kind of fast and furious offense Allen fans are used to from the regular season. The first two goals were scored 16 seconds apart. The big four factored in all three goals. The group's second period numbers were five points (2G, 3A). 

 

- Kansas City fought back with two goals in the third period to cut the score to 4-3. The Mavericks third goal was scored with 12 seconds remaining in the game after the Americans seemed more interested in scoring an empty net goal than running out the clock. Allen iced the puck three or four times trying to score into the empty net. The Mavericks used one of the faceoffs to score their final goal. It was a meaningless goal other than goalie Kevin Mandolese deserved better.

 

- The offensive contribution of the defensemen was also notable last night. Kris Myllari score Allen's first goal of the game after doing the same on Friday. Eric Williams scored Allen's second goal and Zachary Massicotte assisted on Finlay's game winner. 

 

- Goal scorers for Allen were Kris Myllari (2), Eric Willimas (1), Colon Hargrove (3) and Liam Finlay (1). Here are the video highlights: https://www.echl.com/en/video/2023/4/kansas-city-mavericks-vs-allen-americans---apr-29-2023-5y0Tt4jq    

 

- Here is the game recap issued by the Allen Americans: https://allenamericans.com/news/americans-take-game-5-lead-the-series-3-2/

 

- Kevin Mandolese had another great game for the Americans. Here are his playoff stats with his ECHL rank (some are tied):

• #1 Games played (5)
• #2 Shutouts (1)
• #2 Wins (3)
  
• #3 Minutes played (303)
• #5 GAA (1.98)
• #5 Saves (155)
  
• #5 Save percentage (.935)
  

 

CHAD COSTELLO COACH'S COMMENTS

"It is great to get that win and take a 3-2 lead in the series. It was once again a pretty evenly matched game."

"We got four goals and opened up a three-goal lead which neither team has been able to do in this series. That was big for us."

"It was another great game by Mando who made a couple of miracle saves late in the game."

"We have some bumps and bruises which we will use tomorrow to heal up and hope to end the series Monday night."

" I told the guys we need to recognize how we had success in the second period. We kept it simple, we skated, we competed, and we got to the net. It was very simple, we got the puck in, we didn't make any trick plays."

"The Hargrove goal was a very nice rush goal but for the most part we got the puck below the goal line and worked east to west high which allowed the defensemen to get the puck through with traffic in front."

"We are a skilled team but, in the playoffs, we have to learn throwing the puck on net, getting the rebound and then making a skillful play in tight is still showing skills. We don't have to skate the puck all the way up the ice and skate around everybody. A good example is the Finlay goal. We threw the puck at the net three or four times, we rimmed it around to Hargrove, he catches the puck off the boards on his backhand, has vision and hits Finlay in the high slot. They made a mistake by not covering Finlay and he showed poise and waited the goalie out and roofed it."

"It is a big plus we are getting scoring from our defensemen in this series. It is typical with playoff hockey because you have to chip the puck in more and earn net front. The defensemen are getting way more shots. In the beginning of the year we didn't get many goals from the defense. It is great to see Myllari pitching in and Williams and those guys getting shots through.      

 

 

OTHER COMMENTS

- After five playoff games Allen has scored a total of 11 goals. Seven players have goals. Here are the goal scorers:

• 3 goals - Colton Hargrove
• 2 goals - Kris Myllari
• 2 goals - Jack Combs
• 1 goal - Liam Finlay
• 1 goal - Stefan Fournier
• 1 goal - Chad Butcher
• 1 goal - Eric Williams

 

- Kansas City's two late goals kept the streak alive of all five games in the series being one goal games:

• Game 1: 3-2 Allen
• Game 2: 3-2 Kansas City
• Game 3: 1-0 Allen
• Game 4: 2-1 Kansas City
• Game 5: 4-3 Allen

 

- Hats off to team President Jonny Mydra and the entire Allen sales and marketing team. There are a lot of obstacles in selling first round playoff tickets. Allen was unlucky in having to start the playoffs with three road games despite being the higher seed but were lucky in getting two weekend games for games four and five at home. The net result was two great crowds. Allen averaged 4667 for the games this weekend. Last season Allen averaged just 3287 per game in the playoffs (3 games}.

 

- I mentioned yesterday that Wichita coach Bruce Ramsay has been given a contract extension. I found out after I posted the blog that it was a two-year contract extension.

 

- Two teams (Toledo and Reading) have already advanced to the second round of the playoffs. The other six series are at the point of elimination games. There are two games today. Newfoundland leads Adirondack 3-1 and is at home. Cincinnati leads Fort Wayne 3-1, and the teams will play in Fort Wayne. Here are the previews from ECHL Today: https://www.echl.com/en/news/2023/4/echl-today-april-30

 

 

There is a big disparity in number of NHL/AHL contracted players on ECHL playoff rosters. Ranging from almost a full team to hardly any. Having a lot of contracted players doesn’t guarantee playoff success but it sure helps. Here are the NHL/AHL contracted players on ECHL playoff rosters (active & reserve). Does not include playoff eligible players still in the AHL.

 

18 - Newfoundland

10 - Reading*

9 - Toledo*

9 - Indy

8 - Fort Wayne

8 - Maine

7 - South Carolina

7 - Florida

6 - Utah

6 - Idaho

6 - Greenville

5 - Jacksonville

5 - Kansas City

4 - Adirondack

2 - Cincinnati

2 - Allen 

 

*Have already advanced to the second round of the playoffs.