Allen vs Rapid City Playoff History, Steve Martinson's Comments, Possible First Round Upsets and More

 

The excitement of winning on Saturday and making it into the Kelly Cup playoffs has given way to the preparation for the first round of the playoffs against Rapid City. I talked to Steve Martinson this morning and he shared the following information:

"We will be bussing to Rapid City and will leave on Wednesday at 6:00 pm."

"I have requested ice time in Rapid City on Thursday afternoon as some players like to skate after the long bus ride."

"I won't know until after practice tomorrow who is going on the trip. Since it is a long trip and we only play two games, it doesn't make sense to take players that are doubtful or day to day."

"We will practice today and tomorrow as we prepare for this series. Having six days to prepare is a luxury, it gives us extra time to review video and put a game plan together."

 

- Allen has a long history against Rapid City dating back to the Americans first season in 2009-10. However, in all of those years the teams have met in the playoffs only two times.

• 2010 - The Central Hockey League was divided into two conferences. Rapid City was the #1 seed in the North Conference and Allen was the #2 seed in the South Conference. The teams ended up meeting in the Championship finals. Allen beat Laredo (4-3) and Odessa (4-3) to get to the finals. Rapid City beat Missouri (4-0) and Bossier-Shrevport (4-3) to make it to the finals. The Americans took a 2-1 lead in the series before Rapid City reeled off three straight wins to win the series 4-3 and take home the Presidents' Cup.

 

• 2015 -  The only other playoff meeting between Allen and Rapid City came in the first season after the CHL joined the ECHL. Both teams were in what was called the Central Division at the time. Allen was the #1 seed and Rapid City was the #2 seed. Allen beat Tulsa 4-1 and Rapid City beat Quad City 4-3 to set up the Division Final. Allen beat Rapid City 4-2 before going on to beat Ontario (4-3) and South Carolina (4-3) to win the Americans first Kelly Cup.

- Allen clearly has more playoff experience than Rapid City going into this series. Seven players on the Allen roster have playoff experience with the Americans. Allen's #1 and #2 all time leaders in playoff games are Spencer Asuchak, with three championships and 73 playoff games as an Allen American and Chad Costello, who is right behind Spencer with two Kelly Cups and 60 playoff games. 

 

- Since Allen and Rapid City met in 2015 the Rush have not made the ECHL playoffs until this season. Allen has been to four playoffs, played in 49 playoff games and won a second Kelly Cup.

 

- If you look at coaching experience this series has a first year head coach with 36 regular season wins  against a head coach that has won 1123 regular season games and has won 10 championships.

 

- The most important question is whether Allen's player and coaching experience advantage can overcome the Americans underdog status in this series. Rapid City has the higher seed, home ice advantage and a record of 3-1-0-1 against Allen this season.

 

- There are some interesting match ups in the first round of the playoffs. There are always first round upsets and if you look at all the series, some higher seeds may be more likely to struggle than others. I took a look at regular season records for each series:

• NORTH DIVISION
• #1 Reading is 3-3-0-0 vs #4 Maine
• #2 Newfoundland is 10-3-1-0 vs #3 Trois-Riviéres  

• SOUTH DIVISION
• #1 Florida is 5-5-0-0 vs #4 Greenville
• #2 Atlanta is 7-3-0-1 vs #3 Jacksonville

•  CENTRAL DIVISION
• #1 Toledo is 6-1-0-0 vs #4 Cincinnati
• #2 Fort Wayne is 7-1-2-0 vs #3 Wheeling

• MOUNTAIN DIVISION
• #1 Utah is 4-3-1-0 VS #4 Tulsa 
• #2 Rapid City is 3-1-0-1 vs #3 Allen   

 

DID YOU KNOW: The ECHL Stats post today is about Rookies of the Year. Gavin Gould led all Allen rookies with 29 points, even though he played in just 28 games. If you take his points per game average over the 23 games he played in Allen (he played 5 games in Greenville) over a full 72 game season he would have 81 points. Hopefully he returns next season. 

Congrats to Iowa’s Kris Bennett, named ECHL Rookie of the Year (ROY) yesterday. Bennett won the rookie scoring title by 14 points and joins an exclusive club of standout Rookie of the Year winners who won the rookie scoring title by more than 10 points (since 2007-08):

 

2021-22 - Kris Bennett, Iowa won by 14 points

2019-20 - Tyler Sheehy, Allen, won by 15 points

2011-12 - Dustin Gazley, Elmira, won by 19 points

2009-10 - Justin Donati, Elmira, won by 29 points

2008-09 - Bryan Ewing, Wheeling, won by 17 points

2007-08 - David Desharnais, Cincinnati, won by 22 points

 

       

Predicting ECHL Playoff Teams on Thanksgiving - The Results, Plus Honoring the ECHL Ironmen

 The ECHL regular season is in the books and as promised in November, it is time to look back and see how well you can predict playoff teams at Thanksgiving.

 

- The "Thanksgiving Day Playoff Theory" predicts the eventual 16 ECHL playoff teams based on the standings on Thanksgiving. There is no subjectivity to this prediction, just the hard facts. The accuracy of using this method to predict playoff teams is typically around 80%.


  
- It is strange to think with just over 20% of the ECHL season completed you can predict who will be in the playoffs with close to 80% accuracy. Nothing ventured, nothing gained so here are the results of the Thanksgiving day playoff predictions this season.

 

NORTH DIVISION (4-4)

• THANKSGIVING
  
• Newfoundland (.867)
• Reading (.567)
• Maine (.500)
• Trois-Rivières (.500)

• FINAL
• Reading (.697)
• Newfoundland (.664)
• Trois-Riviéres (.536)
• Maine (.514)

Not much to say about the North as the top four teams at Thanksgiving finished as the top four teams. Newfoundland fell from first place and Reading ended up winning the division.

 

SOUTH DIVISION (2-4)

• THANKSGIVING
  
• Florida (.656)
• Orlando (.594)
• Atlanta (.571)
• Norfolk (.567)

• FINAL
• Florida (.653)
• Atlanta (.632)
• Jacksonville (.590)
• Greenville (.528)
   

Only 2-4 in the South but you could see this coming. Norfolk was in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving. I said at the time, "they never make the playoffs" which turned out to be true. Orlando was a surprise as it missed the playoffs after being in second place at Thanksgiving. What I said at the time, " I could see two of the three teams currently not in a playoff position (.536 - South Carolina, .529 - Jacksonville, .462 - Greenville) cracking the top four." Jacksonville and Greenville did just that.

 

CENTRAL DIVISION (3-4)

• THANKSGIVING
  
• Fort Wayne (.667)
• Toledo (.667
• Kalamazoo (.615)
• Cincinnati (.567)

• FINAL
• Toledo (.708)
• Fort Wayne (.604)
• Wheeling (.542)
• Cincinnati (.528)
  

Toledo, Fort Wayne and Cincinnati were correct but missed on Kalamazoo, who was in third place on Thanksgiving. Had an inkling Wheeling might replace Kalamazoo. Here is what I said at the time, "Wheeling (.571) is the only team with a chance to gain a top four spot. The Nailers are on a three game win streak so have gained some ground recently. Kalamazoo is the team that might be at risk. The Wings have historically finished just in or just out of the playoffs. The question is whether they will be able to hang on to a playoff spot.."

 

MOUNTAIN DIVISION (2-4)

• THANKSGIVING
• Utah (.656)
• Wichita (.633)
• Idaho (.588)
• Tulsa (.577) 

• FINAL
• Utah (.604)
• Rapid City (.576)
• Allen (.549)
• Tulsa (.542)
  

 Utah and Tulsa are the only playoff teams that were in the top four at Thanksgiving. I predicted Allen might crack the top four saying this at the time, "Allen is the most likely to defy the odds and make the playoffs. Allen finished #2 and #3 the last two seasons in ECHL points percentage." Definitely didn't see the Rapid City move from out of the playoffs at Thanksgiving to second place.

 

- The final results in predicting the ECHL 2022 playoffs teams from the standings at Thanksgiving is 11-16 which is lower than average at 69%. How does this compare to past seasons? 

• 81% (13-16) 2018-19
• 77% (12-16) 2017-18
  

- Over a five year period (2013-2018) in the NHL, 62 of 80 (77.5%) teams in the playoffs at Thanksgiving wound up qualifying for a playoff spot.

BACKGROUND     

 - Just to be upfront, here is the post from last Thanksgiving with the standings and all of the details I talked about at the time. 

 

NORTH DIVISION
1. Newfoundland (.867)
2. Reading (.567)
3. Maine (.500)
4. Trois-Rivières (.500)


The North Division didn't compete last season and is the only ECHL division with six teams, only two teams miss the playoffs. The entire ECHL is chasing Newfoundland with little luck. The Growlers look like a lock for the regular season championship and are on record points percentage pace. The two teams outside the fourth playoff spot are Adirondack (.433) and Worcester (.393). Adirondack is a perennial strong team that has struggled all season but could be a team to make the top four. It will be hard to catch Trois-Rivières who had a slow start but has won four of the last five games and has a lot of contracted players as well as access to players living in the Montreal area. Worcester looks destined for another last place finish in the North Division.  


SOUTH DIVISION
1. Florida (.656)
2. Orlando (.594)
3. Atlanta (.571)
4. Norfolk (.567)


The South Division is the tightest division in the league with the points percentage ranging from the lowest first place (.656) to the highest last place (.433). Two teams in the final four for the Kelly Cup last season, Greenville and the Cup runner-up South Carolina are on the outside looking in for the playoffs. Norfolk is in a playoff position but never makes the playoffs. I could see two of the three teams currently not in a playoff position (.536 - South Carolina, .529 - Jacksonville, .462 - Greenville) cracking the top four.



CENTRAL DIVISION
1. Fort Wayne (.667)
2. Toledo (.667)
3. Kalamazoo (.615)
4. Cincinnati (.600)

Of all of the divisions the Central looks to be the one where the top four will remain the top four all season. The only issue is who takes the top spot. Indy (.333) and Iowa (.353) are already eight points out of a playoff spot and will not recover. Wheeling (.571) is the only team with a chance to gain a top four spot. The Nailers are on a three game win streak so have gained some ground recently. Kalamazoo is the team that might be at risk. The Wings have historically finished just in or just out of the playoffs. The question is whether they will be able to hang on to a playoff spot. 



MOUNTAIN DIVISION
1. Utah (.656)
2. Wichita (.633)
3. Idaho (.588)
4. Tulsa (.577)

The three teams on the outside looking in have winning percentages of .469 (Rapid City), .433 (Allen), and .433 (Kansas City) and will have a tough time making the playoffs. This is the division where the #4 team (Tulsa) might be overtaken. Tulsa has cooled off after leading the division early in the season. Tulsa has lost four straight and watched its point percentage fall from .750 to .542 in the last week. Based on performance over the last two seasons, Allen is the most likely to defy the odds and make the playoffs. Allen finished #2 and #3 the last two seasons in ECHL points percentage. Rapid City finished #12 and #14. Kansas City finished #11 and #24. 

 

DID YOU KNOW: The ECHL Stats post today honors the 16 ECHL Ironmen who played in everyone of their team's games. The list includes Kris Myllari who is the only Allen player to play in all 72 games.

Honorable mention goes to Spencer Asuchak who didn't miss a game all season. He played in all 68 games he was in Allen and added four AHL games (Charlotte) for a total of 72 games. 

Honorable mention also goes to Chad Costello who recently missed his first game in almost four years while playing for Allen. Chad played in 340 straight games (280 regular season, 60 playoff) to add to his list of Allen records that will never be broken. 

 

The ECHL used 1101 players this season. Just 1.5% (16) played in every game. Stick taps to the Ironmen, those few players that never missed a game all season. The list includes three veterans and three rookies. Here are the 16 ECHL Ironmen:

 

Patrick Bajkov, Reading

Matthieu Brodeur, Trois-Rivières

*Gabriel Chabot, Rapid City

Thomas Ebbing, Reading

*Conlan Keenan, Toledo

*Duggie Lagrone: Tulsa***

*Mason Mannek: Utah***

Jimmy Mazza, Adirondack

*Jade Miller, South Carolina

*Kris Myllari, Allen

*Tyler Penner, Utah***

*Anthony Petruzzelli, Fort Wayne

*Tanner Sorenson, Kalamazoo

*Justin Taylor: Kalamazoo**

*Zach Tolkinen: Fort Wayne**

*A.J. White: Idaho**

 

*Team played 72 games

**Veterans

***Rookies

 
 

The Old Allen Americans are Back, Finish in 3rd Place, Game Recap, Video Highlights, Steve Martinson's Comments, Playoff Schedule and More

 

 The most familiar refrain heard from coaches and fans after the Allen Americans defeated the Iowa Heartlanders 6-3 last night to qualify for the Kelly Cup playoffs was, "It's nice to see the old Allen Americans tonight." In the most important game of the season the experienced players took the lead. Jack Combs and Spencer Asuchak scored first period goals and the Americans never looked back. Chad Costello assisted on four of the six goals, Asuchak contributed a second goal and Colby McAuley scored his second goal in as many nights to help eliminate Idaho, the team that traded him to a non-playoff team back in the middle of March. Colby has played four games since being acquired from South Carolina at the trade deadline and has scored a goal in three of them.

 

- What made the difference last night was Allen came out hitting and finishing its checks from the opening puck drop. The Americans avoided turnovers, got the puck in deep when there wasn't a play at the blue line and the forecheck was as good as it has been all season. 

 

- The Americans great play on the ice created a spirit and enthusiasm in the crowd that was also reminiscent of the "old Allen Americans." And to bring it full circle, coach Steve Martinson had a post game session with season tickets holders just like the old days to recap the game and answer questions. Just like the old days, he answered every question that was asked and stayed until there were no more questions.

 

- Allen had a 2-0 lead by the 6:41 mark of the first period, but Iowa had a chance to get back in the game with a five minute power play for the final 4:58 of the period. The Heartlanders managed just one goal and the Americans took a 2-1 lead into the first intermission. The second period was all Allen Americans who outscored Iowa 3-0 and put the game away.

 

- Goal scorers for Allen were Jack Combs (21), Spencer Asuchak (26,27), Ben Carroll (2), Jared Bethune (8) and Colby McAuley (12). Here are the video highlights:  https://youtu.be/AkqmQc4aIhg  

 

- Game recaps

•  Allen Americans: https://allenamericans.com/media/americans-clinch-playoff-berth-with-regular-season-finale-win/
•  Iowa Heartlanders: https://www.iowaheartlanders.com/en/2021-22-news/ia-wor-recap-game-72

 

COACH'S CORNER WITH STEVE MARTINSON

"Thanks for the turn out tonight and your support all season."

"It was nice to see the old Allen Americans tonight. We pursued the puck and it was the best forechecking we have done all year."

"The veterans stepped up and made plays and got us going and the young guys made plays right through the lineup."

"The Asuchak, Costello and McAuley line was a combined +13."

"It was a lot of fun and I felt like it was the old Allen Americans back. That is a big lift to play that way again as we go into the playoffs."

"I don't know if I will be in Allen next season or not. I am going to start talking to other teams, but the biggest thing for me right now is working on the playoffs. The best thing for everyone is for us to go into the playoffs and win and play the way we are capable of playing."

"I never want to pick my poison on who we are playing. We will be ready for whoever it is." The last time we played in Utah we had a lot of guys injured and called up. Teams like Rapid City, who just work hard, have given us trouble."

"Not starting the playoffs until Friday and Saturday will help us. We have had a lot of players fighting a virus bug that has been going around the locker room and others are dinged up and injured. Not playing until next Friday will help us get healthy and rested up."

"The match penalty on Kneen was not a kick. The guy had his legs tied up and he was just trying to free himself. His skate never left the ice."

"My homework assignment for the players will be to watch their shifts and memorize them as that is the way we need to play next Friday." 

OTHER COMMENTS

- An hour after Allen won they got a bonus as Rapid City defeated Tulsa and that meant the Americans finished in third place in the Mountain Division instead of fourth. Allen's first round opponent will be the Rapid City Rush. Here is the schedule: 

• Friday, April 22 at Rapid City
• Saturday, April 23 at Rapid City
• Tuesday, April 26 in Allen
• Friday, April 29 in Allen
• Saturday, April 30 in Allen*
• Monday, May 2 at Rapid City*
• Wednesday May 4 at Rapid City* 

*If Necessary

 

- Allen scored first, had a first period lead and a second period lead which has been a formula for success this season. The Americans went the entire season without losing a game in regulation when leading after the second period and finished with a record of 20-0-1-1. 

- Spencer Asuchak scored his 27th goal of the season last night which is the most goals he has ever scored in a single season as a professional or in junior hockey. He also passed Chad Costello (26 goals) for the team lead in goals this season.

- Bruce and Whitney Graham and family (four kids) attended the game last night. It was great catching up with them and see how the family has grown. They live in the Moncton, New Brunswick area now. Bruce was the star of the inaugural Allen Americans team in 2009-10. He was the second round pick (#51 overall) of the New York Rangers in the 2004 NHL draft. He led that first Allen team in scoring with 79 points (31G, 48A) in 64 games. The team went to the championship final in 2009-10 before losing to the Rapid City Rush. After winning a championship in Great Britain (Nottingham Panthers) in 2012-13), Graham returned to Allen and was part of the 2013-14 championship. How big of a goal scorer was Bruce Graham in Allen:

• In the history of the Allen franchise just eight players have scored 30+ goals in a season. Bruce Graham and Chad Costello are the only players to do it twice.
• Of the top 10 goal scorers in Allen franchise history, Graham is #1 in goals scored per game. He scored 97 goals in 184 games for a goals per game average of .53.

DID YOU KNOW: The ECHL Stats post today is about which teams make the Kelly Cup Conference finals. While the odds favor the teams finishing #1 or #2 in the division becoming the conference finalists, the #3 seeded Americans can look back to the 2017 playoffs for inspiration. The Eastern Conference finals that season pitted the fourth place team from the North Division (Manchester) against the third place team from the South Division (South Carolina). The Stingrays won 4-3 and met the Western Conference Champion, the second place team from the Mountain Division (Colorado) in the Kelly Cup finals. Colorado beat South Carolina 4-0 to win the Kelly Cup. FYI, Allen was the #1 team in the Mountain Division that season and lost to Colorado in the second round.  

 

It is no surprise the division champs in all four divisions have the most wins or are tied for the most wins in the last 10 games in their respective division. Could all four make it to the conference finals? Highly unlikely as even three of four making it to the conference finals would be above the historical average. The closest was in 2019 when three division champs (Newfoundland, Florida, Tulsa) were joined by second place Toledo in the conference finals. Here is the record over the last 10 games for the four division champions:

 

North: 8-1-1-0, Reading

South: 8-2-0-0, Florida

Central: 7-2-1-0, Toledo

Mountain, 6-4-0-0, Utah

Back in Control, Game Recap, Video Highlights, Steve Martinson's Comments, Game Three Preview, ECHL Decline in PIMS and More

 

It was a wild night in the Mountain Division last night. Utah clinched first place and Wichita clinched last place, but the battle in the middle for the final two playoff spots was not decided. For Allen, Idaho and Tulsa it will come down to the last game of the season tonight to decide the two teams that will make the playoffs. The game winners last night were Allen, Utah, Tulsa and Kansas City. The losers were Rapid City, Idaho and Wichita. 

- Here are the Mountain Division standings after 71 games. The top two spots and bottom two spots are now locked in:

• 85 points - Utah
• 81 points - Rapid City
• 78 points - Tulsa
• 77 points - Allen
• 75 points - Idaho
• 69 points - Kansas City
• 63 points - Wichita

- With a 3-2 overtime win over Iowa last night the Allen Americans are back in control of their own destiny. If the Americans win or lose in overtime tonight they are in the playoffs. If Allen wins and Tulsa loses in regulation in Rapid City the Americans will finish in third place. If Allen loses in regulation tonight it can still make the playoffs if Idaho also loses. 

- There were a lot of ups and downs and good and bad for Allen in the game but the most important thing is the Americans found a way to win with their back against the wall. Here is a recap of the ups, downs, good and bad:

• Allen scored the first goal of the game on its first shot of the game
  
• Allen was outshot 10-4 in the first period
• Allen led 1-0 after the first period (record with 1st period lead is 15-3-2-1)
• Allen had nine minutes of power play time in the second period including a five minute major and failed to score.
• Allen did not allow a goal in the first two periods of the game. 
• Allen gave up numerous odd man rushes and breakaways, including three during the five minute major penalty, all to ECHL leading goal scorer, Kris Bennett.
• Allen led 1-0 after the second period (record with a 2nd period lead is 19-0-1-1).
• Allen was outshot 14-3 in the third period (a season record for fewest shots in a period).
• Allen tied the score 2-2 late in the game (16:43) on its sixth power play of the game.
• Allen won the game at the 1:57 mark of overtime with its second power play goal on its seventh power play opportunity.

- If you look at the glass half full Allen scored the first goal of the game, held Iowa scoreless for the first 47 minutes of the game, came back to tie the score 2-2 late in the game on a power play goal and won in overtime on a second power play goal.

- If you look at the glass half empty, Allen needed overtime to beat a last place team that had little to play for. Allen was out shot 39-25 despite having a one sided (7-2) advantage in power play opportunities. Iowa played the last half of the third period and overtime with four defensemen after two received game misconducts. 

- The bottom line is when they had to find a way to win, the Americans were up to the task. A big part of the win goes to Luke Peressini, who was way better than his great .949 save percentage. He stopped numerous grade A scoring chances. It wasn't a surprise Josh Winquist scored the OT game winner. Allen has won three games in overtime all season (3-8), but the Americans are 2-1 in overtimes in the last two weeks and Winquist has both game winners. 

 

- The goal scorers for Allen were Colby McAuley (11), Ryan Lohin (10) and Josh Winquist (16). Here are the video highlights: https://youtu.be/jwWEr_PJrJ8

 

- Here are the game recaps:

• From the Allen Americans: https://allenamericans.com/media/americans-need-overtime-to-beat-iowa/
• From the Iowa Heartlanders: https://www.iowaheartlanders.com/en/2021-22-news/iowa-forces-ot-with-2-goals-in-third-period-but-drops-3-2

 

COACH'S CORNER WITH STEVE MARTINSON

"On the disallowed goal in the second period the referee ruled the goalie had the puck covered before Asuchak pushed it into the net." https://sporfie.app.link/MJIGRNqegpb

"It was a good comeback and great to get the win but we are not playing to the level we are capable of playing."

"We had way too many turnovers at the blue line which gave Iowa good plays on the rush. We are too slow transitioning from offense to defense when we turn the puck over at the blue line"

"The software we use had the shots at 37-28 which isn't good enough when you consider all of the power play time we had."

 "Counter attacks favored Iowa 22-12. That represents a lot of missed shots for us and more shots for them."

"This series is between an experienced team and a rookie team. Our experience needs to kick in for all three periods tonight."

"Ryan Lohin is doubtful for the game tonight after taking an elbow to the head. We have had players suspended this season for hits to the head even when there was no injury. In this case a player is injured from a hit to the head and there is no suspension."

"Luke Peressini was our best players again last night. He will start in goal tonight."

"We have to cut down on the turnovers and avoid beating ourselves if we expect to win tonight."   

"I released Tyler Poulsen yesterday because it was the last day a released player could be picked up and play for another playoff team. Plus, if he doesn't get picked up and we get an injury tonight, he can be re-signed and added to our playoff roster." 

 

 

GAME THREE PREVIEW

 - The game last night was as exciting as a non-playoff game can get. Hopefully, the momentum from the overtime win will carryover to tonight. The keys to the game haven't changed:

• A good start is essential, Allen has scored first in games one and two. Scoring first and leading after the first period will go along way.
• Allen needs to improve its shot total. That is a combination of reducing turnovers, counter attacks, shots that get blocked and shots that miss the net.
• Allen scored on its sixth and seventh power play of the game last night. The odds are they won't get seven power play opportunities tonight. Have to get a power play goal early.
• The motto for the game tonight is "win and your in" and you can't over emphasize the will to win in a game like tonight. 
  

 

 

OTHER COMMENTS

- Since the beginning of March, Josh Winquist has four game winning goals, no other player has more than two.

 

- Lost in all of the drama of the game yesterday was the release of Allen forward, Tyler Poulsen. He played 33 games in Allen and had 11 points (7G, 4A). Poulsen missed six weeks with a broken foot. He played in one game in February and one game in March. Poulsen brought speed to the lineup and was always finishing his checks. He just got caught up in a numbers game as injured players returned to the lineup.

 

- Other than the Mountain Division just two playoff slots remain to be determined. In the North Division, Maine and Worcester are battling for the final playoff spot and in the South Division Greenville or Orlando will take the fourth playoff spot. Maine and Greenville are in the lead. 

- Here is the ECHL Today with the previews of all the games, and the scenarios for teams making the playoffs, winning the division and winning the Brabham Cup. https://www.echl.com/en/news/2022/4/echl-today-april-16

 

 

DID YOU KNOW: The ECHL Stats post today is about the reduction in average penalty minutes over time. Here is Allen's average penalty minutes since joining the ECHL:

• 13.63 - 2021-22
  
• 13.83 - 2020-21 
• 12.02 - 2019-20 
  
• 23.49 - 2018-19 
• 19.60 - 2017-18 
• 19.89 - 2016-17 
  
• 16.51 - 2015-16  
• 22.83 - 2014-15  

 

 

How much has the game changed? 15 years ago 64% (16 of 25) of ECHL teams averaged 20+ penalty minutes (PIMS) per game. This season one team (4%) averaged more than 18 PIMS per game. Here is a sample of ECHL average PIMS per game over time.

 

13.44: 2021-22

14.89: 2018-19

13.97: 2015-16

17.37: 2012-13

18:50: 2009-10

21.45: 2006-07

Allen vs Iowa Preview, Playoff Scenarios, Coach's Corner with Steve Martinson, Division vs Division Results and More

 

The last weekend of the ECHL regular season has finally arrived and there is still much to be decided. Six of the 16 playoff teams are still to be determined and some of them won't be decided until the final game of the season. 

- Everything is up in the air in the Mountain Division whether it is at the top or the bottom of the standings. All seven teams have two games remaining, all seven teams play tonight and Saturday and all have something to play for:

• Utah (83 points) and Rapid City (81 points) are battling for the top spot. They both are playing at home (Utah against Idaho, Rapid City against Tulsa). Utah is the favorite since it has a two point lead and the Grizzlies have the first tiebreaker if the teams end up tied. Rapid City will finish no worse than second place even if the Rush go 0-2 this weekend.
• At the other end of the spectrum are Kansas City (67 points) and Wichita (63 points) who are battling to avoid being the worst team in the division. Conveniently the teams are playing each other. Wichita can escape the cellar but they have to win in Kansas City tonight and at home tomorrow night and both wins have to be in regulation time. It that happens the teams will end up tied with 67 points but the Thunder own the first tiebreaker.

• In between the battle for first and last place in the division is where the real excitement exists this weekend. Three teams, Tulsa (76 points), Idaho (75 points) and Allen (75 points) looking for two playoff spots. Tulsa is in Rapid City, Idaho is in Utah and Allen is at home against Iowa. There are too many combination to list since each team can earn between 0-4 points this weekend. 

 

- On paper Allen is in the best position from a schedule perspective since the Americans are playing at home against a team out of the playoffs while Tulsa and Idaho are playing on the road against teams battling for first place. Allen has had a schedule advantage the last four games but its record in those four games was 1-2-1-0 so the Americans will have to do better this weekend.

- If the schedule is an advantage for Allen the tiebreakers are not. The first tiebreaker in regulation wins and all three teams currently have 29 regulation wins. If the Americans end up tied with Tulsa and/or Idaho in points and regulation wins, they will lose based on the second tiebreaker which is regulation plus overtime wins. Here are the current numbers for regulation plus overtime wins with the team's overtime record in parenthesis.

• 35 wins - Tulsa (6-3)
• 34 wins - Idaho (5-2)
• 31 wins - Allen (2-8)

 

ALLEN VS IOWA PREVIEW

-  It is a sobering thought but Allen's season could be over if the Americans lose tonight. 

• Tulsa clinches a playoff spot if the Oilers win in regulation and either Idaho or Allen loses in regulation.
• Idaho clinches a playoff spot if the Steelheads win in regulation and Allen loses in regulation.

 

- You can go nuts trying to figure out all of the combinations and permutations in determining which two teams make the playoffs. What Allen has to do is win the game tonight and let the chips fall on what happens to Tulsa and Idaho. In order for Allen  to win tonight it will take a much better effort than the lackluster performance on Wednesday. It is a sobering thought but Allen's season could be over if the Americans lose tonight.

 

- If you can look at all of the stats from Wednesday, other than scoring the first goal, Allen needs to play better in every aspect of the game. The Americans were outshot  in every period and managed just 17 shots on goal. The answer to more shots on goal is not as simple as "shoot the puck" more. Getting more shots starts with having fewer turnovers in the defensive zone and neutral zone. Those turnovers lead to fewer shots for Allen and create good scoring chance for Iowa. Another contributor to shot totals is blocked shots. With a few exceptions, Allen has not been a good shot blocking team this season. It some recent games the Americans have had half the blocked shots as the opponent. Just "shoot the puck" if there is not a shooting lane doesn't get a shot on goal and often creates an opportunity going the other way. A third component of the low shot numbers is putting the puck on the net. All teams miss the net but Allen has been missing the net a lot. I know one player had five missed nets on Wednesday.

 

- Team defense has been an issue for Allen all season. The Americans allow more shots than every team in the league except one. They lead the league in shorthanded goals allowed. You have heard coach Martinson talk about it ad nauseam in his Coach's Corner section of the blog. Here are a few examples:

• "We play offense downhill but defense uphill."
• "We play with defensive indifference"
• "We have too many players always on the offensive side of the puck,hoping someone else gets the puck back."
• "Some players think scoring is more important than winning."
• "With the way we play defense our goalie has to be the best player on the ice every game." 

Playing defense is more about hard work than skill. You hear it all of the time, it is will over skill. It is noticeable when you watch teams like Tulsa and Rapid City how hard they work on defense. Allen needs to play like the more desperate team tonight (which in fact they are). It is time for the Americans to out will the Heartlanders.

 

- Special teams weren't a factor in game one with only three power plays the entire game as the referee let a lot go. There will be a different referee tonight, Jake Jackson (#16) is scheduled to work the game. Jackson has worked five Allen games this season and the average number of power plays (both teams) per game was just over eight. The range was from four to 13 power plays. 

 

 - If there are more power play opportunities tonight here is what the percentages say. The Heartlanders road power play is ranked #2 (24.2%) and their road penalty kill is ranked #2 (85.6%). Allen's home power play is ranked #14 (19.0%) and its home penalty kill is ranked #22 (77.2%).  

 

- Allen scored first on Wednesday but still lost the game. Scoring the first goal of the game is a big advantage. Allen's record when scoring first is 19-10-4-1. Iowa's record when scoring first is 24-7-3-0. 

COACH'S CORNER WITH STEVE MARTINSON

"Iowa had 34 counter attacks on Wednesday which is very high. Counter attacks result from turnovers and can lead to multiple shots on our goalie."

"We have to have players on the defensive side of puck battles and we have to have players covering for each other."

"There us a possibility Chad Costello could return to the lineup tonight. It will be a game time decision."

"Colby McAuley and Jake Kearley will be back in the lineup tonight."

"Luke Peressini will get the start in goal."                                 

 

 

OTHER COMMENTS

 - Greenville and Orlando will go head to head tonight with the final playoff spot in the South Division on the line. Greenville has the advantage of playing at home, has a one point lead on Orlando (74 vs 73) and has three games remaining compared to two for Orlando. The Solar Bears are the only team in the South Division that won't play 72 games. If Orlando ends up missing the playoffs it could be because of the one game in Allen that was postponed because of COVID issues with the Solar Bears. If you remember, Steve Martinson helped find some SPHL players on short notice but Orlando opted to not sign them so the game was postponed because they didn't have enough players. After tomorrow night Orlando may wish they had played that game in Allen. 

- Cincinnati and Kalamazoo are battling for the final playoff spot in the Central Division. With two games to play, Cincinnati has a two point lead (75vs73) and has a home and home series with Indy, who is out of the playoffs. Kalamazoo has a home and home series against the leagues #1 team, Toledo. 

- In the North Division there is a three battle between three teams for two playoff spots. Two of them play each other. All three teams have two games remaining. The playoff teams will be decided by points percentage because they each  played a different number of games. Here are the current standings:

• .522 - Trois-Riviéres (play Worcester at home)
• .507 - Worcester (play at Trois-Riviéres)
• .500 - Maine (play Newfoundland at home)

 

- Here is the ECHL Today with previews on all 13 games on the schedule tonight. A lot of must win games on tap. No fewer than five teams can qualify for the playoffs tonight. https://www.echl.com/en/news/2022/4/echl-today-april-15

 

- Next up on the ECHL Award schedule is the Sportsmanship Award and Community Service Award which will be announced later today. The only Allen Americans player to win one of these awards was Chad Costello who won the Sportsmanship Award in 2015. The Sportsmanship Award goes to the player "adjudged to have exhibited the best type of sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct combined with a high standard of playing ability as voted by the coaches of each of the ECHL teams. 

UPDATE: Iowa's Trevin Kozlowski has been selected as the recipient of the Community Service Award. https://www.echl.com/en/news/2022/4/iowa-kozlowski-receives-2021-22-echl-community-service-award

 

- If Allen make the playoffs and plays Utah in the first round the dates for the first two games will be next Friday and Saturday (April 22, 23). Utah is already selling playoff ticket so whatever team they play in the first round, it will be April 23 and 24. 

 

 

DID YOU KNOW: The ECHL Stats post today is about inter divisional play. Here is Allen's record against the other three divisions with two games remaining against Iowa:

• NORTH: 3-0-0-0 (all against Newfoundland)
• SOUTH: 0-1-0-0 (Orlando)
• CENTRAL: 1-4-2-0 (Toledo, Cincinnati, Iowa)

 

Comparing strength of each ECHL division based on record when playing games outside the division. Here is points percentage and record against the other three divisions:

 

.644 - Central (57-30-3-4)

.585 - North (38-26-7-0)

.493 - South (34-35-5-1)

.456 - Mountain (36-44-7-3)

 

This is not a perfect comparison because the number of games played varies by division and the teams within each division play different numbers of games outside the division. A good example is in the South Division where Atlanta (#1 team in division) has played only nine games outside the division while Norfolk (last place team) has played 19 games outside the division.

 

Even with the flaws, most would agree the Central and North Divisions have the best chance of winning the Kelly Cup and the Mountain Division is the weakest of the four divisions.

Allen Loses 5-1, Game Recap, Playoff Qualification Now Out of Allen's Hands, Martinson's Comments, Top Rookies and More

 

The games in hand are gone. The favorable schedule down the stretch playing out of playoff teams with points percentages below .500 has yielded a record of 2-2-1-0. What was supposed to be an easy path to the playoffs has turned into a nightmare for the Allen Americans. It was a new low last night as the Americans were embarrassed at home by the Iowa Heartlanders by a score 5-1 before a Wednesday night crowd of 5450. Unless the Americans are planning on backing into the playoffs, they must win the final two games of the season which are Friday and Saturday against Iowa.

 

- The Americans are no longer in control of their own destiny. Here is how the playoff picture looks starting with current standings:

• 76 points - Tulsa (2 games remaining at Rapid City)
  
• 75 points - Allen (2 home games remaining vs Iowa
  
• 75 points - Idaho (2 games remaining in Utah)

If all three teams win the final two games, Tulsa finishes #3 by one point and Idaho finishes #4 on the second tiebreaker. The first tiebreaker is regulation wins and all three teams currently have 29. The second tiebreaker is regulation plus overtime wins. Allen loses this tiebreaker to both teams. Remember, Allen is 2-8 in overtimes. 

 

Here are the current stats on regulation plus overtime wins:

• 35 - Tulsa 
• 34 - Idaho
• 31 - Allen   

There are many combinations that get Allen in the playoffs but they rely on Tulsa and Idaho losing one or both of the last two games. The most simplistic way to think of this is Allen needs to earn one more point in the last two games than Idaho. If they tie in points, Allen will miss the playoffs.

 

- As bad as the game turned out for Allen it started out on a positive note. The Americans took an early lead, scoring on their fourth shot of the game. Branden Troock scored his 25th goal of the season (5th in the last three games) at the 4:24 mark of the first period. It was all downhill for Allen from that point. Iowa tied the score before the end of the first period and piled on four more goals in the second period to put the game out of hand.

- In one of the most important games of the season Allen had one of its fewest shots on goal. The Americans were outshot in every period for a game total of 38-17. Here are the shot totals by period:

• 15-7: 1st Period
• 12-5: 2nd Period
• 11-5: 3rd Period

- To say the least, it is disappointing to see a team as talented as the Allen Americans play so poorly. As coach Martinson has said frequently, the team is getting outworked, outplayed and playing with defensive indifference. There is no excuse for how the team has performed the last two games. Here are some stats from the two games:

• Allen trailed 5-0 after the second period in Wichita on Sunday.
• Allen trailed 5-1 after the second period last night. 
• Allen was out shot in five of the six periods the last two games
• Total shots, Allen 40, Wichita and Iowa 72
  
• Allen was 0-6 on the power play 

- Here are the video highlights: https://youtu.be/AaQA4tCXpBg

 

- Game recap from the Allen Americans: https://allenamericans.com/media/big-second-period-for-iowa-leads-heartlanders-over-americans/

 

- Game recap from the Iowa Heartlanders: https://www.iowaheartlanders.com/en/2021-22-news/iowa-jolts-allen-with-5-unanswered-5-1

- One player that had a good game for Allen was Frank Marotte. He entered the game in relief late in the second period after Iowa took a 5-1 lead. Marotte faced 15 shots and stopped them all. He did the same thing on Sunday after Wichita took a 5-0 second period lead and stopped all eight shots he faced. Frank's total for the last two games is 48:53 minutes played with a 100% save percentage, stopping 23 of 23 shots. Luke Peressini started the last two games and his total is 68:02 minutes played stopping 39 of 49 shots for a save percentage of .796.

 

- The Americans have today off to lick their wounds, both literally and figuratively, before they try to rebound against Iowa on Friday and Saturday. There will likely be some lineup changes for the upcoming games. 

 

- I had a chance to talk to coach Martinson and he was at the rink working on how to get better for the game on Friday. He was pulling video to show the team this afternoon. He talked about the shot discrepancy and all of the reasons that contribute to that from turnovers in the neutral zone and offensive zone, getting shots blocked because there is no shooting lane, missing the net and poor decision making on when and where to pass. He will again go over the numerous defensive breakdowns that occurred in the game. He still has players dealing with the virus that has hit the team and won't know until tomorrow who will be back.

 

 

OTHER COMMENTS

- Two more teams (Rapid City & Wheeling) qualified for the playoffs last night. A total of 10 teams are now qualified with six more teams earning spots this weekend. Here are the qualified teams by division with points percentage in parenthesis:

• NORTH
• Reading (.688)
• Newfoundland (.664)

• SOUTH
• Florida (.643)
• Atlanta (.643
• Jacksonville (.585)

• CENTRAL
• Toledo (.700)
• Fort Wayne (.593)
• Wheeling (.557)

• MOUNTAIN
• Utah (.593)
• Rapid City (.579)

 

 

- The ECHL announced the All-Rookie team yesterday. Allen rookie, Gavin Gould, would have been a candidate for the All-Rookie team had he not had the season ending injury in January. Gould had 26 points (9G, 17A) in 23 games. Here is the ECHL news release announcing the All-Rookie team: https://www.echl.com/en/news/2022/4/echl-announces-2021-22-all-rookie-team  

- Allen has had just three players selected to the ECHL All-Rookie team since joining the league in 2014:

• Tyler Sheehy: 2019-20
• Alex Breton: 2018-19
• Justin Baker: 2014-15

 

- Today the ECHL will announce the First-Team All-ECHL  and Second Team All-ECHL. I will be surprised if  Chad doesn't make the second team. He was leading the league in scoring until he sustained a couple of injuries that have slowed him down and now has him out of the lineup. Chad was First-Team All ECHL all three seasons he played in Allen prior to this season. UPDATE: Chad Costello selected to Second Team All-ECHL. Here is the ECHL press release with the details: https://www.echl.com/en/news/2022/4/all-echl-first-and-second-teams-announced

 

 

 

  

DID YOU KNOW: The ECHL Stats post today is about rookies who are in the top three in overall stats. The last Allen rookie to lead the ECHL in a stat was Tyler Sheehy. As a rookie in 2019-20, Tyler led the ECHL in assists with 44 assists in just 47 games.

 

A tip of the hat! They not only lead all rookies, they are also top three in ECHL overall leaders:

 

*Kris Bennett, Iowa - #1 goals (35), #2 power play points (25)

Jake Smith, Iowa, #1 power play goals (13)

*Jack Doremus, Tulsa, #2 shots (260)

Orrin Centazzo, Newfoundland, #1 shooting percentage (26.4%), #2 plus/minus (+34)

Riley McKay, Indy, #3 penalty minutes (192)

Nico Blachman, South Carolina, #3 major penalties (10)

*Selected to ECHL All-Rookie team

   

Allen vs Iowa Series Preview, Coach's Corner with Steve Martinson, Who Wins the ECHL Scoring Race and More

 

It is game day as the Allen Americans finish the regular season with three games in four days against the Iowa Heartlanders. It is unusual for the Americans to finish the season playing against a team outside of the division. With seven teams in the Mountain Division, Allen was the one team scheduled to finish the season playing a team outside the division. Here are the other Mountain Division match ups:  

• Idaho at Utah (2 games)
• Tulsa at Rapid City (3 games)
• Kansas City vs Wichita (3 games, 2 in Wichita, 1 in Kansas City)

- It is not unprecedented that Allen is finishing the season against an opponent outside the division. It happened one other time since Allen joined the ECHL in 2014. In 2015-16 Allen finished the regular season at home, playing three games against the Evansville IceMen, who were in last place in the Midwest Division. Allen won two of the three games and headed to the Kelly Cup playoffs as the #5 ranked team in the league. Allen beat Idaho (4-3), Missouri (4-2), Fort Wayne (4-2) and Wheeling (4-2) to win its second Kelly Cup. That was the season the Missouri Mavericks were the #1 seed with 109 regular season points, which was 10 more points than any other team. Allen had 89 regular season points. 

 

- These three games against Iowa will decide Allen's fate and could be the road to second place in the final division standings or they could miss the playoffs. That is the definition of critical series. Here is a comparison between the two teams:

• Points Percentage - Allen .543, Iowa .492
• Record - Allen 33-27-8-1, Iowa 28-32-8-1
  
• Last 10 Games - Allen 5-3-2-0, Iowa 2-7-1-0
• Ave Goals For - Allen 3.3, Iowa 3.2
• Ave Goals Against - Allen 3.4, Iowa 3.7
• Ave Shots For - Allen 28.4, Iowa 29.2
• Ave Shots Against - Allen 35.1, Iowa 34.4

 

- If there was a theme for this series it would be the rookies versus the vets. Allen has one of the oldest teams in the ECHL, Iowa one of the youngest. Four of Iowa's top five in points are rookies. Allen's four top scorers are all veteran players. 20 of the 22 players on the Iowa roster are rookies. Allen has 26 players on the roster and just five are rookies and that includes Gavin Gould and Andrew Jarvis who are out for the season.

- Don't let all of the rookies fool you because Iowa has some of the best rookies in the league:

• Rookie Kris Bennett is the team captain and a lock for the ECHL Rookie of the Year. He leads all ECHL players in goals (35), is fifth in points (71) and second in power play points (25).
  
• Rookie Jake Smith leads the league in power play goals (13).
• Of the ECHL Rookie scoring leaders, Iowa has the #1, #9, #10 and #16 top rookie point scorers.

 

- Special teams will play a big role in this series with Iowa. Both teams take a lot of penalties. Here is a comparison:

• Penalty Minutes - Allen 943, Iowa 1003
• Minor Penalties - Allen 299, Iowa 314
• Major Penalties - Allen 41, Iowa 51

 

- The best way to compare special teams between two teams that have not played each other is to look at overall home versus road percentages. The percentages clearly favor Iowa. The Heartlanders road power play is ranked #2 (24.4%) and their road penalty kill is ranked #3 (85.4%). Allen's home power play is ranked #13 (19.4%) and its home penalty kill is ranked #22 (77.0%).  

- Allen has done a good job of staying out of the penalty box the last month. The Americans average power play opportunities allowed per game over the last month is just under three per game (2.89). It is a small sample, but the referee scheduled tonight (John Lindner #6) has worked four Allen games this season that resulted in 12 Allen power plays opportunities to eight for the opponents, an average of just five power plays per game. A low number of power plays should work to Allen's advantage.

- If any of the games in this series go to overtime it will be a real crap shoot. Both teams have been horrible in extra time games, but have the exact some record. They have both been to extra time 13 times (19%), are 2-8 in overtime and 2-1 in shootouts. That converts to an identical points percentage in extra time games of .308, which is the worst record in the ECHL 

 

- Here is a series preview from "The Daily Iowan" which is the newspaper published by the University of Iowa. It has been around since 1868. https://dailyiowan.com/2022/04/12/iowa-heartlanders-aim-to-wrap-up-season-with-a-bang-against-allen-americans/  

COACH'S CORNER WITH STEVE MARTINSON

"The key to this series for us is how we play as a group on defense. We can score enough goals to win but can we defend enough to win."

"We will have a full lineup (16 skaters) tonight but will be missing some key players. Chad Costello is still day to day coming off his injury. JD Dudek, Colby McAuley and Phil Beaulieu are sick and will likely not play. We are up to 13 players that have dealt with this stomach virus."

 "Luke Peressini will start in goal. Both goalies have played well recently. We need to avoid all of the odd man rushes we allowed in the last game."

"Iowa has a lot of rookies on its roster but quite a few are AHL/NHL contracted players. I think there are seven contracted players on the current roster and most of them are rookies."

"Our roster can expand to 24 (20 active and four reserve) on Monday from the current 20 active and two reserve. It sets up some difficult choices the last week of the season that would be avoided if the four reserve spots would start the week prior to the playoffs."

"Iowa has a very good top line that that we will have to defend 5-on-5 and on the power play. Last change will be a big help against a team like Iowa."

 

 

OTHER COMMENTS

- As a first year franchise, Iowa has had its ups and downs this season. With a team full of rookies along with call-ups, loans and injuries, that is to be expected. At one point in early March the Heartlanders were in the hunt for a playoff spot. Here is Iowa's record for chunks of the season:

• 1st 12 games: 2-8-2-0
• Mid Feb-Mid March: 9-1-0-0 
• Last 12 games: 2-8-2-0 
  

- Scoreboard watching tonight will be focused on the Tulsa at Rapid City game which won't start until an hour after the puck drop in Allen. If you are an optimist you might be hoping Rapid City loses as that would keep second place in play for Allen. If you are a pessimist, you will be cheering for Rapid City to win as that will help Allen make the playoffs in third or fourth place. No scoreboard watching for Idaho vs Utah, as they don't play until Friday.

 

- It could be a big night in the ECHL with three more teams possibly joining the eight teams that have already qualified for the Kelly Cup playoffs. Rapid City, Wheeling and Trois-Riviéres can all punch playoff tickets tonight. In addition, Reading can clinch the North Division title tonight if it can win on the road against Maine. Here is the ECHL Today with previews on all nine games on tap tonight and what needs to happen for three more teams to qualify for the Kelly Cup playoffs: https://www.echl.com/en/news/2022/4/echl-today-april-13   

- Last week I wrote about the season Fort Wayne forward, Will Graber was having and he would likely win the ECHL scoring title and plus/minus title. Here is the exact wording:

The race for the leading scorer in the ECHL is all but over. Will Graber (Fort Wayne) has 83 points and a nine point lead over Patrick Watling (Wheeling) and TJ Hrnsick (Toledo). Graber could get the rare double by leading the league in points and plus/minus. He is +37 and has a +7 lead over second place.

I think I jinxed Graber since he has no points in his last three games and is -5 in his last six games. He still has the lead in both categories going into the weekend for Fort Wayne's final two games of the season against Wheeling. Graber has 83 points and a five point lead over Zach O'Brien (Newfoundland) and is +36 with a +2 lead over Orrin Centazzo (Newfoundland). 

The race isn't over because Newfoundland has three games remaining versus Fort Wayne's two and the players chasing Graber have been hot. Graber has no points in the last three games while O'Brien has eight points in the last three games. In the last six games Graber is -5 while Centazzo is +7. 

 

 

DID YOU KNOW: The ECHL Stats post today is about teams that are good in both average goals scored and allowed. Allen is ranked #10 in goals scored (3.33) and #18 in goals allowed (3.39).

 

There are just three ECHL teams that average more than 3.50 goals per game and allow fewer than 3.00 goals per game. They are all serious Kelly Cup contenders:

 

Newfoundland - 3.95 vs 2.89

Toledo - 3.78 vs 2.84

Reading - 3.68 vs 2.81